An area of high pressure that had been centered over Nevada for several days finally began to weaken on July 13, 2021, while abundant moisture continued across New Mexico. As this high pressure weakened, a weak embedded disturbance crossed the area.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An area of high pressure that had been centered over Nevada for several days finally began to weaken on July 13, 2021, while abundant moisture continued across New Mexico. As this high pressure weakened, a weak embedded disturbance crossed the area. With sufficient moisture, instability, and additional lift from this weak disturbance, another active monsoon day was in store for northern and central New Mexico. The Luna burn scar experienced its most significant flash flooding event of the season so far with slow thunderstorm motions and very heavy rainfall altering the landscape, destroying bridges, and making several roads impassable. Meanwhile, a brief landspout tornado was reported near Madrid, but no damage occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 11:13 AM MST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1213 PM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE There will be an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Wet microbursts are likely with erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph near stronger cells. A few storms may turn severe and produce locally heavy rain with drainage problems. Storm motions will be very slow and variable until sunset when they will begin moving from southwest to northeast at 10-20 kt. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger along and west of the central mountain chain after midnight and into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and night will bring a further increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021... .SYNOPSIS... An active thunderstorm pattern will continue over the area for the remainder of the week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. Thunderstorms will be most numerous during the afternoon through early nighttime hours when locally heavy rainfall will be possible along with brief bouts of hail, strong wind and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Latest indications suggest Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night will be the most active period with a heightened threat of flash flooding particularly over and below recent burn scars as well as areas that have received substantial rainfall the past week. High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through much of this week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... The dome of high pressure aloft will begin to weaken slightly today over southern NV and CA while a shortwave trough exits WA state and crosses ID into MT. In addition, shortwave perturbations will generate over the southwestern states on the northern periphery of the high translating east toward the Four Corners late today into tonight and Wednesday. PWATs during the daytime will tend to stay in the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range with lower values found over the southeastern zones of the forecast area. Along with the drier air in these southeastern zones, lower theta-E values, lifted indices close to zero, and a subsidence inversion around 600 mb look to inhibit storm development there today. This will place the best afternoon initiation point for storms over the southwestern and northern mountains of NM. As the high weakens and shortwave energy approaches, steering flow aloft will be lighter and more erratic, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Into tonight, PWATs are expected to rise in northwestern zones (up to nearly 2 standard deviations above climatology) and storms will tend to take on a more eastward heading, but still with some variability and sluggish speeds of 5 to 10 mph. Storms could sustain themselves beyond midnight within the northwestern half of the forecast area. Shortwave energy will continue feeding into northern NM into Wednesday as PWATs escalate to 1 to 1.25 inches with the deepest moisture expected in the northwestern corner of the state. Storm motions would still have some variability depending on the arrival of the axis of any shortwave, but speeds should increase slightly. Temperatures will cool a few degrees in the presence of the increased moisture, clouds and storms with readings running slightly below mid July normals for most zones. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... Ingredients for widespread thunderstorm activity and an associated flash flood/isolated severe threat appear to be coming together Wednesday PM into Thursday especially for the northern and western halves of the area. Wednesday night looking particularly active with the potential for at least a couple of different mesoscale convective complexes evolving and likely persisting well into Thursday morning. A significant increase in deep-layered moisture, as mentioned above, expected across much of the area during this period ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will slowly translate eastward over the area Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Models have been reasonably consistent showing the tail-end of this wave providing at least weak large- scale forcing for ascent amidst a very moist and unstable environment. The 00Z ECMWF, GFS and NAM all show PWATS peaking Wednesday night around 1.3" at KABQ or very close to daily records; however, a broad plume of PWATs 150-200 percent of normal indicated for much of the area into Thursday. Most unstable CAPE values generally range from 600-1200 J/kg for Wed night with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35kts across NW zones. Thus, growing confidence in at least some organized convection/isolated severe persisting after sunset Wednesday. Thursday afternoon's convective trends will largely be dictated by how the atmosphere behaves the previous 12-hours. Evidence in models of a surface boundary sagging into northeast NM and there may well end up being a MCV or two per the 00Z NAM for the day Thursday. Storm motions slowly toward the south or southeast would tend to favor the best storm coverage over the eastern and southern halves Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with a downtick for the Four Corners. 500mb heights then quickly build over and just west of NM on Friday and even more strongly to our northwest this weekend as the mid-to upper-level high center eventually reestablishes over the eastern Great Basin by early next week. Ensemble means advertising 500mb heights close to 597 dam over northern Utah into southwest Wyoming on Monday with latest deterministic runs trending closer to 600dam. Regardless, the upper-air pattern will bring a return of weak NE to SW (and possibly E to W over southern zones) steering winds late in the extended forecast with ample moisture remaining in place supporting daily rounds of thunderstorms. In fact, PWAT values look to remain well above average (1" to 1.2") at KABQ Friday through Monday before trending downward. As a result, locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms can be expected virtually every day through the days 4-7 particularly for the north and west. Steering flow considerations should limit coverage over the SE plains, which might be good news there for the water-logged areas around Roswell. KJ 52/41 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will be focused on convective outflows, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall this week as an active stretch of scattered to numerous storms prevails for much of the forecast area. Stiff south or southwest breezes at 15 to 25 mph will prevail in the eastern plains today and Wednesday, but elsewhere prevailing winds will generally be light to moderate with any disruptions coming from thunderstorms for brief periods. Hot temperatures over northwest NM will also abate with readings across most areas staying near to slightly below seasonal average while humidity trends upward. With high wetting rainfall potential, many areas are expected to observe beneficial fuel moisture through the end of the work week, including the northwest plateau of NM that has the largest precipitation deficits this year. Local burn scars will remain susceptible to flash flooding. Into this weekend, as high pressure strengthens and reestablishes itself over and west of the central Rockies moisture will continue to circulate and be recycled over much of NM with a healthy coverage of storms persisting. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 348 AM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021 NMZ201>241-141000- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 348 AM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Another round of slow-moving thunderstorms is expected this afternoon through early tonight. Storm motions will generally be toward the south or southwest between 10 and 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with any of the stronger storms and isolated hail up to quarter-sized with the most intense storm cells. Brief heavy rain may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Present indications are that Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night will be the most active period this week with a heightened threat of flash flooding particularly over and below recent burn scars as well as areas that have received substantial rainfall the past week. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm motions for Wednesday and Thursday will generally be toward the southeast or south. For the period Friday and beyond.... scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. Storm motions will shift and slowly toward the south or southwest and rainfall could become heavy at times. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. 41
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
927 AM MDT TUE JUL 13 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0754 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE EDGEWOOD 35.09N 106.17W
07/12/2021 M63 MPH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC
SANDIA AIRPARK
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102452
GUYERThe Albuquerque radar (KABX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:35 UTC.
1 tornado, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported a brief landspout southeast of Madrid. The landspout only lasted about a minute, and no damage was reported as it occurred over open country.
Heavy rain across the Luna burn scar resulted in major flash flooding in Luna Canyon and surrounding areas, and the force of the water altered the landscape. Water and debris destroyed one bridge and many roads became impassable. An observer reported that the water in the narrow Luna Canyon was several feet high. A CoCoRaHS observer near Chacon reported that the Luna Creek, which is usually just a few feet wide became 100 yards wide. Campsites on private land were demolished. The New Mexico Governor declared a state of emergency in Mora County for the significant flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for New Mexico, 2021Warnings in New Mexico, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960302, 960303.