Strong low and weather front moved across the gulf and into the southern panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
Strong low and weather front moved across the gulf and into the southern panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 23, 5:08 AM AKST, 6 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
508 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SHORT TERM...High pressure builds in the Gulf leading to
diminishing showers across the panhandle. Satellite imagery shows
skies beginning to clear across the northern panhandle this
morning. The surface ridge is expected to pivot east as a low
develops in the western gulf and moves towards the panhandle.
Overall, Tuesday will provide a brief drying period ahead of our
next weather maker.
Tonight, a storm force low located in the western gulf will track
towards the panhandle. Winds will begin to increase considerably
through Wednesday. Gales to storm force winds are expected along
the outside waters with gales through the southern inner channels.
A High Wind Watch remains in effect for areas along the Central
Outer Coast, Western Prince of Wales, and Southern Inner
Channels from Wednesday through Wednesday evening. SE winds 25 to
35 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible.
Current guidance suggest that the low will track SE over Northern
Prince of Wales through Thursday . However, there is the
possibility that this solution changes and the low tracks further
south through Dixon Entrance. This has caused for forecast
challenges when looking at precipitation. There will be cold air
in place but with a southerly push with associated frontal band,
temps will warm above freezing. However areas north of the low
will experience northerly flow allowing for cooler temps and
therefore snow potential. Also, QPF totals will also vary
depending on the track of the low. Typically, as the low tracks
south, easterly flow wrapping around the low center will cause
lower QPF due to increased offshore flow.
Current thinking is that as the low tracks south the central and
northern panhandle will see precipitation begin as snow but with a
strong southerly push, temperatures will warm causing a change
over to rain. Any snow accumulations will vary with a few inches
possible across the far north to up to an inch through the
central panhandle. As forecast confidence increases and the low
track can be better resolved, snow totals will be fined tuned.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...An active weather
pattern continues into the long term with three systems expected
to impact Southeast Alaska through early next week.
The long term begins with a weakening low moving southeast out of
the gulf and into the Southern Panhandle. Ensembles and
deterministic models have come into better agreement regarding the
track of this system. A blend of the NAM/Canadian reflect the
NAEFs and EC ensemble means, so adjusted the track accordingly by
shifting it a tad southward. The GFS brings the low even further
south; however it is an outlier compared to the ensembles and
other models. As far as impacts, snow showers across the north and
rain showers across the south will diminish through the day on
Thursday. West/northwesterly flow sets up across the gulf with
Gales in the outside waters and sub small craft winds through the
Inner Channels
Weak ridging builds in on Friday briefly drying out the Panhandle
before the next weather maker moves in from the west. By Saturday,
another low moves into the NW gulf swinging a front into the
Panhandle. Good upper level dynamics are associated with this
front as a SW-NE oriented jet pumps in subtropical moisture. The
NAEFs and EC Situational Awareness Tables already show IVT values
and PW 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time
period. There is potential for heavy rain across the region this
weekend as there are signals an atmospheric river will develop
with this front. P-type should be predominantly rain with the
northerly track of the low and persistent southerly flow into the
Panhandle. The finer details regarding this system will become
clear in the coming days. For now, confidence is increasing regarding
the heavy rain potential this weekend.
Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into
early next week as there is good agreement another system will
move into the gulf behind the weekend system.
Focused mainly on the Thursday system, blending to the
NAM/Canadian for any changes. Increased winds over marine areas
and put some finer detail in for temperatures and P-type. Trended
towards WPC/NBM for the latter portion of the long term. No major
changes made to the extended portion of the forecast.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for AKZ023-027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-041>043-051>053.
&&
CC/CM
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple power outages in Craig with downed trees blocking roads reported at 4:20 pm.
Ketchikan marine exchange observation reported a peak gust of 62 knots at 3:25 pm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945691, 945687.