Minimal amounts of rainfall combined with further curing of ground fuels from the freeze event led to another expansion of drought conditions across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region. The northern ranchlands were particularly affected by this expansion, which saw Extreme Drought grow significantly.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Minimal amounts of rainfall combined with further curing of ground fuels from the freeze event led to another expansion of drought conditions across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region. The northern ranchlands were particularly affected by this expansion, which saw Extreme Drought grow significantly.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 10:53 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Current observations are showing clear skies across all aerodromes. VFR conditions will prevail for a few more hours at BRO and MFE while IFR conditions are developing at HRL as low clouds and fog begins to develop. Calm winds and ample low level moisture will allow fog to develop across all terminals around 2 am. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions once fog develops and linger into mid to late morning before VFR conditions return as winds increase across Deep South Texas. MVFR conditions will return to MFE, HRL and BRO late Tuesday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Although tranquil conditions are in place right now, light fog may develop at the aerodromes during the overnight hours. A full return to VFR is likely on Tuesday with moderate winds and scattered cloudiness. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A cold front passed through the area this morning with very weak CAA...dew points did not see much of a drop behind the front and temperatures are already rising into the mid 70s. High pressure will briefly settle in behind the front across Southeast Texas this afternoon and then continue its trek eastward across the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. With the movement of this system to the east and the development of a low pressure system over the Texas Panhandle region on Tuesday, the northerly wind shift will be brief, with light to calm winds expected overnight and a southeasterly flow developing by Tuesday evening. With nearly calm winds expected overnight and ample surface moisture, fog is likely to develop across much of Deep South Texas and the RGV late tonight into Tuesday morning, with some areas becoming dense. On Tuesday night, while plenty of surface moisture will be available, surface winds will remain too high with the tightening pressure gradient to support significant fog development. No mentionable rain chances are expected through the short term with mid level ridging building into Tuesday. After reaching the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s across the ranchlands and mid 50s in the RGV tonight. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80, and will then only drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night with the southeasterly flow. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Broad and shallow ridging will prevail over the RGV/central Mexico/Gulf of Mex around midweek. Meanwhile to the north, a series of troughs will be digging across the central and northern portion of the lower 48 states. These troughs will push eastwards through the end of this week and into the weekend which may suppress the Gulf ridging some. However, the 500 mb ridging over the southern areas will not likely weaken enough to allow the cold front to push through the RGV through the end of the week and into the weekend. Late in the forecast period a large 500 mb closed low will dig over southern CA/NW Mex this weekend. This closed low may shift far enough eastward to possibly push a cold front through the region late Mon. The GFS is the most bullish on this scenario while the ECMWF keeps the RGV well above climo for temps through early next week. Overall moisture levels remain pretty limited over the region due to the lingering 500 mb ridging. So will only maintain some slgt chc pops through Days 7/8. Since the GFs and ECMWF models appear to be coming into better agreement today versus the diverse guidance shown by the two models this weekend, forecast confidence today is better versus this past weekend. Above average for both temps and pops. MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night)...Moderate north to northeast winds behind the weak cold front that passed through the area this morning are subsiding across the lower Texas coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will further decrease overnight and become easterly on Tuesday morning and southeasterly by evening as surface high pressure slides eastward over the northern Gulf and interacts with low pressure forming over the Texas Panhandle. This tightening pressure gradient will allow winds to increase overnight on Tuesday night to near SCEC levels. Wednesday through Saturday Night: Surface ridging will remain centered over the Gulf of Mex and the western Atlantic for much of the upcoming marine period. This will maintain moderate S-SE winds and moderate seas through the end of the week into the weekend. Although SCA conditions are not expected through Sat Night, the PGF may be strong enough to push conditions up in SCEC territory for the Gulf waters Fri and Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 72 62 75 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 56 76 63 81 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 53 76 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 54 77 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 80 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 67 64 70 / 0 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68-McGinnis/Aviation
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 408 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-232200- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 408 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk or rip currents is possible at the local beaches Wednesday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-232200- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 408 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
A lack of substantial rainfall allowed for Severe (D2) Drought to expand into Coastal Kenedy County.
A lack of substantial rainfall allowed for Severe (D2) Drought to expand slightly farther eastward across more of far northern Willacy County, while Extreme (D3) Drought slipped from the border with Hidalgo and Kenedy on the 16th to the northwestern eighth of the county from the 23rd through the 28th.
A lack of substantial rainfall combined with sufficient days with low humidity allowed for Extreme (D3) Drought to expand and cover all but far northeastern portions of the county, while Severe (D2) Drought covered the remaining fifth of northeast Brooks County.
A lack of substantial rainfall allowed for Extreme (D3) Drought to expand and cover all but a sliver of Northern Hidalgo along between FM 490 and SR-186; Severe (D2) Drought covered this area.
A lack of substantial rainfall allowed for Severe (D2) Drought to expand across all of Southern Hidalgo County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 941062, 941064, 941065, 941066, 941067.