During the evening of Sunday, June 28th, a complex of thunderstorms that developed across Iowa previously, moved slowly northward across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin before stalling Monday morning. During the onset of the heavier rainfall, a few storms caused wind damage near Tainter Lake and Colfax, but most of the damage was minor with a few large tree limbs and power lines blown…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
During the evening of Sunday, June 28th, a complex of thunderstorms that developed across Iowa previously, moved slowly northward across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin before stalling Monday morning. During the onset of the heavier rainfall, a few storms caused wind damage near Tainter Lake and Colfax, but most of the damage was minor with a few large tree limbs and power lines blown down.
Deep moisture convergence along the axis of thunderstorms, training along the periphery of the the numerous boundaries, combined with PWAT values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches which is over the 99th percentile value, caused extreme rainfall rates.
Before the flash flooding event developed, there was an hour or two during Sunday evening that dropped locally one to two inches of rainfall in the areas that received more torrential rainfall in the early morning hours.
There was one main band of excessive rainfall that occurred in west central Wisconsin during the early morning. This area was from Prescott, northeast toward River Falls and Baldwin. Based on the return period from precipitation amounts in a specific time frame, the values were a 100-200 year event. Flash flood guidance values were 1.5 to 2 times above normal.
As the runoff continued through the morning, the flash flood event become more areal flooding as the flood waters receded into creeks, streams, and eventually the mainstem rivers. Other areas that experienced flooding but not as significant include the New Richland Golf Course. The St. Croix County Sheriff Office documented the flood damage the next day from their drone. From the video, you could see numerous culverts and roads that were washed away including crop fields (near the creeks and streams) that were inundated nearly 24 hours after the initial rainfall started.
Some of the higher rainfall totals around the area are as follows.
Emerald measured 9.84 inches.|Baldwin measured 8.72 inches. |River Falls measured 6.34 to 7.82 inches around the city. |Roberts measured 7.24 inches. |Menomonie measured 5.08 to 5.64 inches around the city.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 6:00 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 MCV moving into the Mankato area will be the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon that will track up into the Twin Cities and eventually the Twin Ports region. We're starting to get hints of deep moist convection initiating, though to this point, this feature has been fairly stable. However, with over 5000 j/kg of MUCAPE up into western IA, persistent southerly flow will continue to push more unstable air northward, so agree with the HRRR and HopWRFs that we will eventually a cluster of storms develop that moves north through the Twin Cities later this afternoon. Again, with the better instability and shear off to the southwest, these storms look to remain sub-severe. After this MCV moves through, attention turns to threat for where storms develop along the warm front. This next round of storms will tap into the extreme instability down across IA, but there continues to be little continuity in the models with where this batch of rain ends up. For example, the HRRR between 12z and 18z look fairly similar, the only difference is the 12z HRRR had the evening/overnight storms from south central MN up into the Twin Cities, while the 18z shifted it all north, with the heavy rain from the Twin Cities/east central MN into northwest WI. At this point, still favor a more southern solution like what the 12z HREF and 15z HopWRF mean have, with the warm front ending up from about Marshall to the MN/WI/IA border, with the greatest heavy rain and severe risk through the night centered closer to that region. Both the 12z and 18z HRRR show the potential for training of storms along where the warm front sets up, with some areas receiving 3+ inches of QPF. Fortunately, antecedent soil conditions are dry, so really think to have much of a flash flood threat, we're going to need to see heavy rain in the urban core of the Twin Cities metro. Everywhere else, soils are dry enough to handle some good rains. For the severe threat, that again looks better closer to the MN/IA border, where instability will be greater and shear is increased by the jet streak currently apparent on satellite imagery over KS moving up over IA this evening. For the severe threat to materialize, we probably need the souther solution to work out (12z HRRR). If we see a more northern solution as we are seeing with the 18z HRRR and the 18z HopWRF members just rolling in, we'll likely have a lower severe threat as these areas will be displaced from the stronger instability and shear. This activity tonight will likely generate an MCV, that will then serve as the focus for thunderstorm development Monday afternoon. There was certainly a trend from the GFS/NAM for the MPX area to be hot and capped on Monday, but like the idea of the 18z HRRR. Because of where it develops convection tonight, the HRRR generates an MCV near the Twin Cities, that by Monday afternoon is up by Duluth, with storms initiating there then tracking southeast into western WI. This should be how things play out, it's just a matter of where that MCV ends up and given uncertainty with where that will be, have kept PoPs mainly in the 30s north of I-94. As you get southwest of I-94, you will be encountering stronger and stronger capping, so have a dry day for Monday by the time you get to south central, southwest, and west central MN. With the lower cloud cover and drier conditions expected, this will translate to hot conditions southwest of I-94, with afternoon heat indices forecast to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Haven't issued any heat headlines yet until we get a better handle on how clouds and convection will trend Monday afternoon, but a heat advisory is looking pretty likely for at least the Twin Cities metro on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 For the long term, Tuesday is looking hot and dry, with the best forcing for precip out in the Dakotas. Wednesday/Wednesday night still looks to feature the passage of a weak cold front, but both the GFS/ECMWF trended drier with it. This makes sense as the main upper wave forcing this front will be going from the Dakotas into northern Saskatchewan. So forcing and shear will be weak across the MPX area with the front, with the severe threat really driven by the presence of strong instability along the front. Behind the front we see building heights and a drying trend for Thursday through Saturday. Stuck with NBM PoPs for Thursday, though those look overdone. Really it doesn't look like we have much of precip threat until Sunday, when a weak cold front looks to drop down from the north. For temperatures, it still looks hot, with the potential for us to pile on quite a few 90+ degree highs through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 MCV moving through now bringing an initial round of storms. Still some uncertainty with where the next round develops. The HRRR has been bouncing around with where storms develop through the rest of the night, but it has been bouncing additional storm development around east central MN and western WI. Kept the similar theme going with previous TAFs, but there's still plenty of potential for things to work out differently. Looks like MVFR cigs are going to be confined closer to the MCV circulation in central MN, so kept MVFR mention confined to AXN/STC, with models trending away from MVFR or lower cigs elsewhere. For Monday, the trend continues to be for drier conditions, with best TS potential in WI, but confidence in TS occurring is not high enough to include in the TAFs. KMSP...MCV related precip will be off the field by 1z. After that, it's wait and see if we get another round. That next round looks to get going near or shortly after 6z, possibly persisting out to 12z Monday. CIG trends have been to back away from MVFR potential, so kept MSP VFR outside of TSRA, with a SCT cloud group at the MVFR to handle that threat. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue...Mainly VFR. Slight Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 15G25 kts. Wed...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...MPG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 849 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 291400- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 849 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the evening from south central into east central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, and adjoining portions of western Wisconsin. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with an isolated tornado possible as well. Locally heavy rainfall is also likely with thunderstorms that develop tonight. A flash flood threat exists wherever multiple rounds of thunderstorms are able to redevelop over the same area. The greatest risk for flash flooding exists from south central into east central Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Daily chances for thunderstorms exist Monday through Thursday. Monday and Wednesday have best chances for thunderstorms, with severe thunderstorms possible again on Wednesday. Excessive heat will be possible next week across western and southern Minnesota, as afternoon heat indices approach or exceed 100 F. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 746 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 MNZ063-070-078-WIZ024-290115- Washington-Dakota-Goodhue-Pierce- 746 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DAKOTA... NORTHWESTERN GOODHUE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTIES... At 746 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Hastings, or 17 miles west of Red Wing, moving northeast at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of funnel clouds. Locations impacted include... Cottage Grove, Hastings, Rosemount, Prescott, Cannon Falls, Afton, Stanton, Hampton, Randolph, Vermillion, Miesville and New Trier. This includes U.S. Highway 61 near mile marker 104. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4441 9296 4454 9317 4488 9283 4475 9259 TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 220DEG 30KT 4463 9289 BPH
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 749 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 WIZ023>025-290130- Pierce-St. Croix-Dunn- 749 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE...WEST CENTRAL DUNN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES... At 749 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ellsworth, or 12 miles northeast of Red Wing, moving northeast at 25 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of funnel clouds. Locations impacted include... Ellsworth, Baldwin, Woodville, Elmwood, El Paso, Wilson, Beldenville, Hersey and Martel. This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 18 and 33. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4464 9236 4477 9257 4504 9233 4488 9202 TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 220DEG 24KT 4472 9242 BPH
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 831 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 WIZ023>025-290200- Pierce-St. Croix-Dunn- 831 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE...WEST CENTRAL DUNN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES... At 831 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Elmwood, or 15 miles east of River Falls, moving northeast at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Baldwin, Woodville, Elmwood, Knapp, El Paso, Wilson, Hersey and Martel. This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 20 and 39. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4467 9223 4476 9245 4509 9231 4493 9196 TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 205DEG 31KT 4481 9231 BPH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020
WIZ024-290200-
Pierce-
843 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020
...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTY...
At 843 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles east of Ellsworth to near Red
Wing. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Bay City, Esdaile, Red Wing Airport and Hager City.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4461 9260 4462 9260 4476 9245 4467 9223
4456 9244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 252DEG 27KT 4475 9232 4458 9251
LSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
849 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE MIESVILLE 44.66N 92.78W
06/28/2020 M3.34 INCH DAKOTA MN COCORAHS
&&
TDHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
859 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020
WIZ023>026-290300-
Pierce-St. Croix-Dunn-Pepin-
859 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020
...An AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PEPIN...EASTERN
PIERCE...DUNN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM
CDT...
At 858 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Knapp to near Elmwood to near Bay
City. Movement was east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Menomonie, Woodville, Glenwood City, Colfax, Boyceville, Elmwood, Eau
Galle, Plum City, Bay City, Knapp, Wheeler and Emerald.
This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 22 and
50.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4513 9171 4478 9179 4456 9216 4458 9247
4482 9237 4510 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 265DEG 15KT 4498 9204 4476 9211 4459 9239
LSThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:55 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trained spotters and the local fire department around Trainter Lake to Colfax reported a few large tree limbs blown down, along with some power lines.
Parts of St. Croix County received over 8 to 9 inches of rain causing flooding and washed out roads across the county. The worst areas that experienced significant flooding were the Kinnickinnic, Rush and Eau Galle Recreation River areas, and the towns of Hammond, Baldwin, Emerald, Glenwood City, and Cylon.
Some of the specific roads that were closed or washed out during the height of the flooding were: 1000 Block of 190th Street in Baldwin, 2100 110th Avenue in Baldwin, Country Road TK, DD & 240th Street in Baldwin, Highway 12 & 220th Street in Baldwin Township, 2254 130th Avenue in Emerald, 2900 Block of 200th Avenue in Glenwood City, and West Blvd & Highway 65 in Roberts.
Unfortunately, A man died after he lost control while driving on a water-covered road north of Baldwin near County Road E and Highway 63. At least five other motorists standing on the roofs of their cars were rescued from rushing water in that same location in the Baldwin area.
About $4 Million dollars in damages was due to 40 homes that sustained major damage and one that was destroyed when the foundation caved in. The other $4 Million dollars was due to bridge, highway and road damage.
There were numerous road closures, and culverts overwhelmed by flood waters across portions of Pierce County. Some specific closures included Highway 10 west of Ellsworth, County Road O along the Trimbelle River, and the towns of Martell and El Paso were severely flooded from the Rush River. In addition, some crops were washed out around Spring Valley.
There were several roads that were closed across Dunn County due to the flooding. There was some mudslides noted between Lake Tainter and Wheeler. County Road W, north of Colfax, had one foot of flowing water over it during the height of the storm.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, St. Croix | 2020-06-29 | 70 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, June 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 890928, 891063, 891064, 891065.