Heat in Arizona, June 28, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
948 AM MST Sun Jun 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system passing north of the area will bring
strong and gusty winds today and Monday. Hotter temperatures will
return by the end of the week along with the possibility of more
isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery was showing clear skies across
southeast Arizona except for a few cu across extreme southeast
Cochise County. Surface temperatures valid 28/16Z were running about
5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The shortwave which helped
give us some convection yesterday will advect into NM throughout the
day today. At the same time, another trough across the Great Basin
will near our region, inducing strong gusty southwest winds this
afternoon and Monday. This will generate critical fire weather
conditions across the CWA both afternoons. More information can be
found in the fire weather section. Temperatures this afternoon will
be a few degrees below normal due to lower heights and thicknesses
associated with the trough moving through. We'll hold on to these
"cooler" temperatures through midweek, then warm up a bit into the
holiday weekend. Details regarding the potential for an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity later this week will come with the
afternoon forecast package. No updates this morning. Please see the
remaining sections for more information.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z.
Mainly SKC this morning, then SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL areawide
this afternoon. SFC wind SLY at 10-16 kts this morning, then
WLY/SWLY at 15-22 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts this afternoon. SFC
wind slowly diminishing after sunset and generally less than 12 kts
by midnight into Monday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of
southeast Arizona today and Monday from Noon through 8 pm MST both
days for strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative humidity
levels, and a very high fire danger.

While relative humidity levels will be borderline in some areas,
especially in the higher terrain above 6500 feet and along portions
of the International Border, strong winds will override the higher
humidity levels in fine fuels. Relative humidity levels above 6500
feet and along the International Border will be in the 15-20 percent
range, except slightly higher at mountaintop levels. Winds will be
15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph today and 20-25 mph gusting to around 40
mph on Monday.

Otherwise, expect dry conditions through Monday, with a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms east/southeast of Tucson Tuesday
into the end of the work week. Minimum humidity levels will be in
the 10-20 percent range this next week, along with continued
improvement in overnight recoveries.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The tail end of a low pressure system will brush
Arizona bringing strong and gusty winds to the area today and
Monday. These strong winds in combination with dry conditions and a
very high fire danger had prompted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning for both today and Monday. Please refer to the Fire Weather
section in this product for more details. Otherwise, a ridge of high
pressure will build back over the region by the end of next week for
a return to hotter temperatures and the possibility of more shower
and thunderstorm activity by next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST today for AZZ150>153.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ150>153.

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