An incoming front brought high winds to a small portion of Lake County near Summer Lake.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to a small portion of Lake County near Summer Lake.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 8:36 PM PST, 7 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
836 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020
.DISCUSSION...8:30 PM RADAR shows the beginnings of the
precipitation associated with the front that is coming through
tonight into tomorrow. More information with details on everything
is in the previous discussion below. This front could bring some
heavy rain and snow rates to some areas resulting in a Winter
Storm Warning for portions of Southern and Western Siskiyou
County and a Winter Weather Advisory down to 3500 feet for the Mt.
Shasta City area as well as for the Cascades and some of the
Mountain Roads in the Siskiyous. The advisory does not include
Interstate 5 at Siskiyou Summit, but it does impact I-5 near Black
Butte Summit as well as Highway 89 in California. Please note that
this is not the exhaustive list, and a more information is
available within the WSWMFR.
No changes have been made to the forecast at this point, which
appears to be on track. -Schaaf
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Monday 20 Jan 2020...Southerly winds
will increase and seas will build this evening as a strong front
approaches from the west. This front will bring gales and very steep
wind-driven seas tonight followed by very high and very steep long-
period swell through Tuesday evening. Seas will likely peak near 20
feet at 15 seconds during this time frame with bar conditions
becoming very hazardous. Winds and seas may briefly lower Tuesday
night, but another front, a warm front, will move through the waters
on Wednesday with a period of south winds that could approach gale
force again across northern areas. Seas will remain very steep and
hazardous due to increasing wind waves combining with existing
westerly swell. The weather pattern will remain active late this
week through this weekend with several more fronts moving through.
These fronts will likely generate winds and seas at least at small
craft advisory levels. -Spilde
.HIGH SURF...Models are showing significant westerly swell moving in
on Tuesday with wave heights peaking at 17-18 feet and a period of
15 seconds. This could result in higher than normal waves running up
the beaches with breaking waves in the 20-23 foot range. So, have
gone with a high surf advisory, mainly from Brookings northward.
High tides on Tuesday are at approximately 8-9 am and 10-11 pm. So,
those planning to be at the beaches on Tuesday should be aware of
the dangerous surf conditions. -Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020/
SHORT TERM...Low pressure is wrapped up offshore this afternoon, and
southerly winds ahead of this low are being observed from the
coast to areas east of the Cascades. Winds will ramp up through
the night, and we have Wind Advisories out for the Shasta Valley,
southern Rogue Valley, and portions of the East Side. South to
north forecast pressure gradients have trended higher today, so we
added the Rogue Valley Advisory to focus on areas from Phoenix
southward. We also bumped up forecast winds along the coast, but
since we only expect headlands to reach High Wind criteria (gusts
58mph or higher), we have not issued a High Wind Warning. Inland
winds will peak late tonight into early Tuesday morning, lasting
the longest east of the Cascades near Summer Lake. Rogue Valley
winds can be quite tricky, and this is a marginal case for a Wind
Advisory, but with MFR-RDD pressure gradients peaking at -8mb and
a moderately strong HRRR surface wind field, we are predicting
some areas will see sustained winds of 25 mph tonight and early
Tuesday morning.
There will be a quick shot of moderate to heavy precipitation with
the front. Midlevel flow is southwesterly, and this favors multiple
areas for snow impacts. The southerly component favors Northern
California and the Mount Shasta City area in particular, for a
period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday. Snow will start early
Tuesday morning, and as the front moves through during the mid-
morning hours, snow levels will lower enough to affect areas at 3000
ft to include McCloud. We've adjusted the lower end of the Advisory
to include McCloud based on the consensus of latest model data.
Additionally, the westerly component to the midlevel wind favors a
period of moderate to heavy upslope snows in the Southern Oregon
Cascades...and some spillover snow over Highway 97. Snow levels will
start at 4000 to 4500 feet and lower to 3000 feet as the front moves
through Tuesday morning. We expect the period of heaviest snow to
occur between 4am and 10am, and one inch per hour snowfall rates are
likely at times.
Showery conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon, and snow will
continue to fall but will not be as heavy or steady as the morning.
A warm front is expected to move through Wednesday, and snow levels
will rise above 6000 feet by Wednesday afternoon. This means more
snow for the highest elevations and rain for the middle and lower
elevations. Most of the time warm fronts will bring a period of very
low clouds and some fog even in the late morning or early afternoon
areas to valleys west of the Cascades, so we expect a similarly
gloomy day for at least part of Wednesday. After the warm front
pushes through, less precipitation overall is expected on
Thursday.
LONG TERM...4 PM Saturday through Tuesday morning...Saturday
Evening marks the start to a rainy weekend. A west oriented mid-
level jet will set up driving moisture onshore. A mid-level short
wave passes through the area near the start of this extended
forecast (4 PM Saturday) and a front later on Sunday. On Saturday
the disturbance creates strong warm air advection, bringing snow
levels up to about 6000 feet across the area. With the front on
Sunday, winds shift to the southwest, indicating Mt. Shasta may
see an uptick in precipitation. Also, snow levels should drop
slightly around 5000- 5500 feet for the area. Currently, snow is
not expected to reach Mt. Shasta city, but the NBM, including
other model blends, are showing a trend towards a light dusting in
this area and other than snow at Crater Lake, this to be the only
snow related impacts. Overall, the weekend precipitation should
remain rain for all but the highest areas, with no periods
appreciable snow accumulations occuring.
After sunday, model continuity begins degrade. The ECMWF and GFS
deterministic solutions begin to diverge. The ECMWF deterministic
and GEFS-mean show an open wave feature off the coast of British
Columbia being the driver to the weather on Monday. Whereas the GFS
deterministic develops a surface low instead of just a wave and
could be the difference between the start of the week being wet or
dry. Either solution does not bring much precipitation and impacts
look to be negligible for the start of the week. -miles
AVIATION...For the 21/00Z TAF Cycle...VFR conditions will prevail
through Monday afternoon. An incoming front will bring areas of
MVFR cigs/vsbys and local IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and rain to
the coastal waters this evening, moving onshore tonight with higher
terrain becoming obscured in low clouds, rain, and snow from the
coast to the Cascades. Snow levels ahead of the front will be 4500-
5000 feet MSL.
Low level wind shear will also be a concern this evening and tonight
at KOTH, KRBG, and KMFR until the front moves through. The front
will move through KOTH at 10Z, KRBG at 11Z, KMFR at 14Z and KLMT at
16Z.
Behind the front, the lower conditions will continue through the
remainder of Tuesday morning, but the precipitation will be showery
and snow levels will drop to 3500-4000 feet MSL. Conditions will
improve Tuesday afternoon and evening as the showers diminish, but
there will still be some MVFR cigs/vsbys around.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
ORZ029-030.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
ORZ027-028.
High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500
feet in the for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 3000
feet in the for CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500
feet in the for CAZ082.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for
CAZ083.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for PZZ356-376.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for
PZZ350-370.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Summer Lake RAWS recorded a gust to 62 mph at 21/0438 PST and a gust to 60 mph at 21/0538 PST. A CWOP in Summer Lake recorded gusts to 58 mph at 21/0446 PST and 21/0501 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 865511.