Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained with minimal rainfall and mild to warm temperatures; Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage did not change significantly as rainfall favored the coastal counties of the Rio Grande Valley and King Ranch, where rainfall was generally 25 to 50 percent of average. Extreme Drought (D3) developed across the western portion of…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained with minimal rainfall and mild to warm temperatures; Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage did not change significantly as rainfall favored the coastal counties of the Rio Grande Valley and King Ranch, where rainfall was generally 25 to 50 percent of average. Extreme Drought (D3) developed across the western portion of Zapata County as drought conditions intensified on January 21st, and monthly rainfall was 10 to 25 percent of average. These conditions were maintained through the end of January with slight intensification into early February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 10:56 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...With high pressure and subsidence continuing to impact the region and limited available low level moisture, low level clouds and fog potential remains limited tonight and tomorrow. As the high pressure slides to the east, winds will shift to become southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon. Low and mid level moisture will increase through the period with the wind shift, but VFR conditions are expected across all 3 RVG airports through the majority of the TAF period. MFE could see ceilings drop to MVFR conditions briefly late Tuesday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...With high pressure in place and limited available atmospheric moisture, the potential for low clouds or fog will remain limited tonight and tomorrow across the region. As the low level winds shift to become more easterly on Tuesday, low and mid level moisture will begin to increase, but VFR conditions are still expected to prevail across all 3 RGV airports through the next 24 hours. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500 mb ridging will initially build over the area throughout tonight and Tues which will likely result in warming temps. The low level flow will shift around from a more E-SE direction late on Tues and Tues Night as the surface ridging shifts more to the east over the southeastern U.S. This will also allow low level WAA to increase throughout the short term. In addition, low level relative humidity will also start increasing later on Tues and Tues Night. A 500 mb trough axis will start building into the South Central Plains States late on Tues which will starting increasing the cld cover over the RGV and Deep South TX. Some PVA associated with the trough axis will start edging into the region by 12Z Wed which may help generate some isold/sct light rain showers overnight Tues. The NAM/GFS and ECMWF recent short term runs continue to show pretty good agreement in the warm up of temps through Tues Night and will stick pretty close to a model consensus here. Short term pops are a bit more tricky. The NAM and GFS models have pops moving in a bit quicker versus the ECMWF. Will go closer to a NAM/GFS blend versus the drier ECMWF numbers. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): An H5 trough will be moving across the central Plains as the long term begins. This will position a cold front southward across the area. From yesterday, the globals have seemed to come around on agreeing on a FROPA Thursday morning. QPF signal does exist ahead of the front, however, the better dynamics/ascent will remain along and north of the I10 corridor. That said, just enough lift from the trough on top of the lower level convergence will be enough to carry POPs Wed-Thurs. Best chance would be north and over the water. After the front moves through, upper level flow turns more northwesterly and quickly westerly going into Friday. Upstream another Pacific trough amplifies across western Mexico late Saturday and into Sunday. Ahead of the wave, low level flow will help slide the remnant frontal boundary north toward our region. There are some timing issues within the globals. ECM and GFS both show a QPF signal, as the front lifts north and surface cyclogenesis occurs just south of the region...but ECM is a bit faster with the parent trough...lessening the POPs and precip duration. GFS is less progressive with higher POPs and a longer precip duration. Decided to split the difference for now, but given the lower confidence in the medium range...was a bit more conservative with POPs than the blends. Finally, temperatures look to gradually warm up until the FROPA on Friday. Given the Pacific airmass, not a huge cool down behind this front...not to dissimilar from the last several frontal passages. No "super" warm ups or cool downs expected over the next seven days...mostly average +/- 5 degrees or so respectively. MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Currently, Buoy020 obs indicate that the NE surface winds offshore have dropped down into the 10G18kt range. But the swells are still holding around 7.5 feet. So will maintain the SCA for a few more hours until the swells finally drop down below SCA levels. Light to moderate winds and seas will prevail Tues and Tues Night as the surface ridging slides eastwards over the SE U.S. and allows for an E-SE low level flow to return. (Wednesday through Monday): Adverse marine conditions to start the long term marine period. Low level flow increases ahead of a cold front due into the region late in the week. There will be a break in the stronger winds as the frontal boundary moves closer to the region and weakens the pressure gradient. Convection may be possible along the front as it moves through Thursday. The strongest storms may produce cloud-to-water lightning, brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and locally rough seas. Behind the front, moderate winds and seas are expected, however, a surface high pressures moves in very quickly relaxing pressure gradient/low level flow going into the upcoming weekend. The northeasterly fetch, although modest will still produce some increase in swells. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Aviation Update...69
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 702 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 TXZ248>257-351-353-220115- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 702 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a high risk of rip currents at area beaches along the lower Texas coast. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk of rip currents could be possible at area beaches along the lower Texas coast through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-220115- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 702 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories are possible for all or portions of the Gulf of Mexico waters from Tuesday night into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. 63
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought persisted across the central portion of Starr County on January 21st and then expanded slightly into early February.
Severe (D2) drought persisted across the majority of Zapata County and a small area of Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the western portion of the county on January 21st. These drought areas persisted through the end of January and into early February.
Severe (D2) drought persisted across the western portion portion of Jim Hogg County on January 21st and then expanded slightly into early February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873737, 873738, 873739.