What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 6:39 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 6:39 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will impact the region today into tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front and strong upper-level disturbance.
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EST: The ingredients are firmly in place for a very wet
and stormy day across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
Water vapor imagery reveals a prominent 500 mb trough moving across
TX/OK this morning. A tremendous fetch of moisture is evident east
of the trough across the lower MS River Valley and stretching up the
Appalachian mountain chain. Precipitable water values in this plume
are running 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with anomalies some 3+ standard
deviations above normal. A Flash Flood Watch is already in place
across the entire forecast area, with several Warnings now issued as
hydro conditions continue to deteriorate. No changes to the Flash
Flood Watch are planned with the expiration still set at midnight
tonight.
As the base of the trough moves east over the lower MS River Valley
today, lobes of stronger DPVA will shuttle northeast across the
southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills/piedmont. This will
combine with robust upper level divergence associated with the
subtropical jet streak reaching 170+ kt at times to produce
impressive forcing. Waves of better sfc-6km bulk shear will cross
the region ahead of the associated surface cold front, with values
around 70 kt at times. Instability was looking to be the main
limiting factor for widespread severe weather, with sbCAPE values
generally just a few hundred J/kg during the daytime hours, and mid-
level lapse rates rather modest. However, recent RAP runs are now
suggesting some sbCAPEs in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at times
midday as mid 60s dewpoints approach. Overall, the dynamics are so
strong, and the low-level wind shear so abundant, that the existing
Marginal west to Enhanced east gradient of severe threat looks well
placed for today into this evening. Improving updraft helicity on
the mesoscale models will arrive in the southwest mountains before
daybreak, but better organization seems likely over the eastern half
from 16Z onward as the low-level jet ramps up to 50 to 60 kt. Strong
to severe discrete activity will be possible through the morning
hours, but the pre-frontal line should sharpen up through the day as
mesolows move up the frontal boundary to pose the greatest severe
risk through the afternoon hours, perhaps into the early evening
across I-77.
Anticipate a late evening fropa across the mountains, with the
boundary moving east across the piedmont overnight. Snow levels will
fall from the west through daybreak Friday, with light accumulations
most likely along the higher ridges around the Smokies. Winds will
be gusty through the period, both on the warm advection side today
and the cold advection side tonight, but with gusts generally below
advisory levels (30 to 40 mph) at all but the highest peaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday: With the cold front east of the region by
Friday morning, colder air will continue to spill across the
mountains, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out at minus 6 or
colder along the spine of the southern Appalachians. Although the
low-level flow will be a less favorable westerly direction for
upslope, orographic lift will still wring out snow showers through
the day, with some high elevations in and around the Smokies seeing
possibly 2 to 4 inches of snow by Friday evening. Accumulations will
be quite terrain dependent, with Advisory or greater snow amounts
limited to mainly above 4000 feet, and very little in the lower
valleys. Will mention in the HWO, but hold off on any Advisories at
present. A brief lull in the moisture is expected on Friday night.
Temperatures will return to below climo values during the period.
The latest model runs continue to show the development of weak low
pressure on Saturday morning as a strong short wave drops down
across the TN Valley into the base of the long wave trof across the
eastern US. The models have shown good run-to-run continuity with
this peculiar feature, blowing up precip over the mtns early in the
day and then moving it slowly off to the E/NE, but the recent trend
is toward lower precip amts possibly because the sfc low looks more
like it will be moving over the OH Valley region on Saturday. It is
worth noting, however, that the operational GFS continues to run at
the low end of the GEFS distribution. The fcst is interesting
because partial thickness remains rather low, the boundary layer
rather cool to start with at onset, and the fcst soundings showing
wet bulb profiles that would support all snow at onset across the
mtns. Eventually, warming takes place in the valleys, but not before
we might get a few hours of light snow, especially if the NAM is
correct. Elevations above about 3k feet would be likely to stay snow
for the duration. Because the QPF has come down in the operational
model guidance, present indications are for an Advisory-level event,
but if we end up closer to the ensemble mean, we could push Warning
criteria at elevations above 3500 feet by Saturday afternoon. East
of the mtns, if the precip can begin early enough in the day, it
could begin as a period of light snow, before an eventual changeover
to rain. This would be somewhat similar to what transpired last
Friday, but the amounts this time would be much less. However, the
latest trend was also to delay the onset by a few hours outside the
mtns. This system lifts out Saturday evening and precip pares back
to the NW flow upslope areas by late evening, and then ends by
daybreak Sunday. Temps should be below normal for this period.
The rest of the weekend should be quiet and dry as a flat upper
ridge moves overhead Sunday, pushing high pressure past, then off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday night. Temperatures should return
to normal. The moisture associated with the next front is not
expected to arrive before daybreak Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Thursday: Fcst confidence starts out decent on
Monday morning with the models in general agreement that another
frontal boundary will gradually sag down across the fcst area as
the upper flow slowly goes WSW under a low amplitude trof/ridge
pattern. This system is not expected to have nearly the same
benefit of moisture flux from the Gulf as our current event,
but there should be enough forcing and deep moisture to afford a
likely precip probability ramping up Monday and then continuing into
Tuesday while the front stalls against the WSW flow aloft. Temps
should be warm enough...about 5-10 deg above normal...that it
should be all rain. Confidence plummets dramatically beyond
Tuesday. The op GFS has a stronger short wave coming through
the nrn stream which develops a stronger frontal wave that lifts
out Tuesday. Because the wave is stronger, the flow amplifies an
eastern trof which drives the front through and we dry out for
the middle of the week, until a srn stream wave ejects and brings
moisture and precip back from the SW for Thursday. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF remains more low amplitude and keeps the frontal boundary
stalled across our region right through the end of the period,
with another wave on Thursday. For the time being, we lean toward
the ECMWF solution, which makes for another wet week with fairly
high precip probs. But, again, confidence beyond Tuesday is low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Cannot rule out rogue cloud-to-ground
lightning with just about any convective elements passing over the
airfields today. However, will try to target the prime thunder
periods this afternoon with a TEMPO group, and use VCTS otherwise
where permitted. Cigs should quickly settle down into the IFR range
throughout as the heavier rainfall become widespread, with mainly
MVFR visibility except IFR in the heaviest downpours. LIFR
conditions should develop through the day from time to time as the
stronger forcing and very deep moisture move overhead. Anticipate a
sharp uptick in south to southwesterly gusts. Low-level wind shear
will be possible at all sites as the low-level jet continues to ramp
up this morning, but with less confidence at KCLT. Very little
improvement is expected until the fropa moves through the region
later tonight, and even then low clouds may remain.
Outlook: Northwest flow may persist near KAVL, but drying is
possible elsewhere through Friday. A system will move through the
region on Saturday, with brief restrictions possible, before drying
returns on Sunday.
Confidence Table...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z
KCLT High 90% Med 68% High 82% Low 58%
KGSP Med 60% Med 63% Med 77% Med 65%
KAVL Med 70% Med 72% Med 77% Med 65%
KHKY High 80% Med 72% Med 61% Med 70%
KGMU Med 65% Med 72% Med 77% High 95%
KAND High 85% High 91% High 82% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...HGHazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 4:00 AM EST, 5 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-070900-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and Piedmont of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop
across the region today through this evening ahead of an advancing
cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may well become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts possible in addition to cloud to
ground lightning. A few brief, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially along and southeast of Interstate 85 this afternoon and
evening. Plan now for the actions that you will take if Severe
Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches or Warnings are issued today. This is
especially important if you in a mobile home. Make arrangements now
to flee quickly to a nearby, sturdier structure if warnings are
issues for your location.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-070900-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
Scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
region today ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts
possible in addition to cloud to ground lightning. A brief, isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Snow showers will develop behind the departing cold front late
tonight through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected across
the mountains, especially at elevations above 3500 feet where a
couple of inches will be possible. Two to four inches of snow will be
possible along the highest ridge tops around the Great Smoky
Mountains.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 6, 5:23 AM EST, 3 hours 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
SCZ014-061100-
Chester SC-
523 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 600
AM EST...
At 523 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Chester, or near Blackstock, moving northeast at
55 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg, Blackstock, Fishing Creek Reservoir
and Cornwell.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089 3460 8089
3456 8087 3454 8088 3456 8126 3482 8092
3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 230DEG 47KT 3455 8112
MOORESpecial weather statement, Feb 6, 5:51 AM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
551 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
SCZ006-007-010-061115-
Anderson SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
551 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
EST...
At 550 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Easley, or near Piedmont, moving northeast at 55
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Greer,
Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Welcome and Powdersville.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3462 8278 3476 8261 3482 8249 3486 8249
3508 8222 3488 8195 3477 8213 3478 8215
3474 8217 3458 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1050Z 230DEG 46KT 3469 8250
MOORESpecial weather statement, Feb 6, 6:51 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
NCZ051-062-061215-
Swain NC-Macon NC-
651 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MACON AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EST...
At 649 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles east of Hayesville, or 7 miles south of
Nantahala Lake, moving northeast at 60 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Bryson City, Nantahala Lake, Ellijay, Burningtown, Kyle,
Otto, Rainbow Springs, Wayah Bald and Whittier.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and extreme rainfall rates in excess of 3
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Flash Flood Warnings
are already in effect for both Macon and Swain counties.
&&
LAT...LON 3544 8349 3545 8336 3542 8336 3540 8334
3533 8334 3530 8332 3527 8332 3515 8321
3499 8338 3500 8352 3502 8352 3504 8356
3507 8357 3511 8362 3513 8362 3512 8364
3514 8365 3515 8365 3515 8373 3516 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 237DEG 51KT 3509 8364
MOORESpecial weather statement, Feb 6, 7:40 AM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
740 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-010-061315-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
740 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS...NORTHERN HART...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM EST...
At 740 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Carnesville, or near Lavonia, moving northeast at
60 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Seneca, Carnesville, Westminster, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon,
Bowersville, Martin and Avalon.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3448 8337 3483 8290 3481 8290 3481 8289
3478 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8286
3470 8285 3467 8285 3464 8283 3463 8285
3462 8285 3463 8283 3444 8278 3427 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 237DEG 51KT 3446 8314
MOORELocal storm report, Feb 6, 8:24 AM EST, 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
824 AM EST THU FEB 6 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N GRANITE FALLS 35.82N 81.43W
02/06/2020 M3.11 INCH CALDWELL NC PUBLIC
&&
OUTLAWLocal storm report, Feb 6, 8:43 AM EST, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
843 AM EST THU FEB 6 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW SALEM 34.94N 83.02W
02/06/2020 E3.50 INCH OCONEE SC PUBLIC
IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.
&&
OUTLAWNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 878346, 879183, 878247, 871936, 879187, 871937, 874585, 875680, 875678, 878243, 878438, 871938, 878429, 878695, 871939, 879186, 878348, 871942, 878694, 871943, 878696, 871940, 871941, 877889, 878693, 878700, 877890, 877123, 875679, 877369, 878349, 878444, 877375, 877377, 877388, 877891, 877125, 874589, 878445, 877124, and more.