Damaging Wind and High Wind in New Mexico, November 7 to 9, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
445 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
While VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and
central New Mexico, an approaching upper level disturbance and
accompanying cold front will lead to windy and unsettled weather
tonight and early Sunday morning. Winds have been gusty and will
increase overnight, primarily during the frontal passage, but any
passing showers will also enhance gusts too. An Airport Weather
Warning could be issued for KABQ where gusts may exceed 35 kt
overnight. Rain showers and generally MVFR conditions will tend to
dominate areas of western and central New Mexico below 7000 feet, but
higher elevations could observe more snow with LIFR to IFR
conditions and peak obscurations. Eastern areas will observe mostly
clear skies without precipitation, but gusts of 25 to 40 kt will be
common there from early Sunday onward.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will continue to pick up with the expansion of rain showers
over western and northern NM tonight. Showers gradually transition to
snow through Sunday morning with the arrival of colder air. Snow
showers taper off Sunday while breezy to windy conditions remain. The
second tier of this windy winter event arrives Sunday night through
Monday morning with another round of light to moderate snow across
western and northern NM. Snow levels fall to valley levels with
several inches to a foot of snow possible atop the Tusas Mountains.
Strong winds of 50+ mph could impact the Sacramento Mountains Monday
morning, with windy conditions elsewhere over the eastern plains
lasting through Monday afternoon. Weather conditions gradually clear
out by Tuesday with colder temperatures remaining.

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.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
The first of two storm systems continues to approach NM from the
west this afternoon. Pacific moisture continues to stream up into NM
ahead of the system, allowing for widespread clouds across western
and central areas. Light rain showers and a few thunderstorms have
also been ongoing this afternoon across western NM and recently the
precipitation has started to expand eastward, though with dry low
levels, some top-down moistening still needs to occur for this
precipitation to reach the ground. An associated cold front will
sweep from west to east tonight. The combination of lift associated
with the front, orographic lift and the Pacific moisture should
yield a line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight,
shifting east with the front. Unfortunately, precip will likely
fizzle out before reaching those in eastern NM. 700 mb temps will
remain quite warm until after the 700 mb front passes. Snow levels
will start around 10-11kft before dropping to between 6500-7000ft by
sunrise. A few inches of snow is expected tonight across the high
peaks of the northern mountains, and the current Winter Weather
Advisory for the Tusas Mountains remains in good shape. Elsewhere
across the north and west, less than an inch is expected.

In addition to the precipitation, strong winds will continue to be
the other story. Models continue to show 700 mb winds between 50 and
70 kt overnight, and though this doesn't align with peak heating,
breezy to windy conditions will still be felt overnight at lower
elevations, while northern NM peaks should see very strong winds,
and thus, blowing snow. The High Wind Warning looks to be in good
shape, though was tempted to upgrade areas around Las Vegas into a
High Wind Warning. For the Wind Advisory, have added the SC and SW
mountains given their elevations.

Precipitation should largely end by 8am MST, but strong winds will
persist throughout the day. Winds may briefly weaken toward the
evening hours, but may strengthen once again, especially across the
peaks, Sunday night. The strongest winds Sunday afternoon and night
will be across the south central mountains and much of eastern NM.
Additional Wind Advisories will likely be needed. Meanwhile, the
second system will also be bringing another round of precipitation
to portions of the state Sunday night. Near or shortly after
midnight, rain and snow will develop across northwest NM. Given the
cooler temperatures with this system, snow levels will be lower, and
any areas that start out as rain will likely become snow quickly.
Thus, a couple of inches of snow is likely for much of northern and
western NM, with perhaps as much as 10 inches across the Tusas.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The start of the Long Term begins with continued unsettled weather as
the second wave of energy wraps around the southern periphery of a
larger troughing pattern over the western CONUS. Another round of
snow across the western and northern high terrain will be in-store
through Monday morning. Models have sped up the timing of this system
exiting the region, so have lowered PoPs after 18Z Monday.
Thereafter, the main story will be strong winds associated with a
strong 60-70kt H7 jet clipping the Sacramento and south-central
mountains Monday afternoon. The overall setup of southwest winds
supports mountain wave activity, and is further supported by cross-
sectional model display of a sharp gradient of positive to negative
omega over the mountains. How bursts of stronger winds over 50mph
crashing to ground level over and lee of the Sacramento's is always
tough to forecast, but did go ahead and raise the winds there for
Monday afternoon. While a wind advisory at the least is likely for
this event, the chances for high wind warnings is also there. It's
early and will allow this decision for wind highlights to be made
closer to the event.

Strong westerly winds will likely linger well into Monday night. Both
the NAM12 and GFS are showing a final vort max trailing behind the
upper low over NM during this time, with a sharp surface pressure
gradient still over the eastern plains. But winds do gradually taper
off heading into Tuesday. Notable CAA continues into Tuesday, keeping
temperatures well below normal. Some spots could see record low
maximum temperatures both Monday and Tuesday, with highs limited to
the 30s and 40s over western and central NM.

Zonal flow sets up thereafter over NM, with the general troughing
pattern weakening over the northwestern CONUS. With models not
showing any new ridges and the GFS showing no notable rise in mid-
level theta-e or influx of a warmer airmass, the warming trend
expected for the rest of next week will be slow through Friday. The
GFS (weaker shortwave) and ECMWF (deeper trough) also continue to
differ on the next fast moving system over NM Friday to Friday night.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Two back-to-back storm systems will impact the state through Monday.
Strong winds with lower elevation rain and high mountain snow is
expected tonight. After a break on Sunday, another round of strong
winds and snow is expected Sunday night through mid day Monday.
Precipitation will favor northern and western NM in both systems,
but the second system will be cooler and thus more snowfall is
expected at lower elevations. Within the break on Sunday, winds will
remain breezy to windy, RH values may dip briefly below 15% across
far northeast NM, resulting in spotty critical fire conditions. High
temperatures will trend lower on Sunday and that trend will continue
through Tuesday. In fact, starting Monday, temperatures will be
below normal for all areas through the rest of the work week.
Quieter conditions are expected otherwise, though winds may start to
ramp back up Friday or Saturday.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for the
following zones... NMZ208-215-216-221-223-226-228-229.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for the
following zones... NMZ210-213-214-227.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Sunday
for the following zones... NMZ210.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
301 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2020

NMZ201>241-081100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
301 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will develop over
western New Mexico this afternoon then spread east into central New
Mexico tonight. Cold air overnight will change rain to snow above
7,000 feet where a few inches are likely, especially across northern
New Mexico. Strong south to southwest winds of 25 to 40 mph with
gusts up to 60 mph are expected with this system, especially in
higher mountain locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The next storm system will move in from the west Sunday night with
more rain and mountain snow through Monday. Snow levels will be lower
with this system so a few inches of snow are possible for a larger
portion of the northwest half or so of the state. Strong southwest
to west winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph are possible
again with this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq
or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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