Arizona, 2020

High Wind in Arizona, November 7, 2020

November 7, 2020 · NWS FGZ · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

A strong cold front brought high winds to parts of northern Arizona.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

A strong cold front brought high winds to parts of northern Arizona.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 7, 9:42 AM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 7, 9:42 AM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
942 AM MST Sat Nov 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Two weather systems will bring a dramatic change in
the weather across northern Arizona this weekend. Expect periods
of wind, rain, and mountain snow through Monday morning.
Significant snow accumulation over the higher terrain is expected.
Dry and cool conditions return Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have already increased this morning, with a few
gusts to 40+ mph reported over higher terrain areas. Expect winds
to continue increasing through the day, with gusts of 40-55 mph
for most of northern Arizona. The first disturbance in our 2-part
storm system is over central California at 9 AM. Showers and a few
t-storms have been numerous over eastern Gila, and southern
Apache/Navajo counties with a band of moisture, and these will
persist there until late afternoon or early evening. Elsewhere, a
lull in precipitation is observed this morning. As the first
disturbance approaches later this afternoon and evening, showers
are forecast to develop over the Mogollon Rim and much of Coconino
County and spread east overnight. For the Flagstaff region, looks
like the changeover to snow will be in the 4-6 PM range, with
areas farther east being later (Show Low closer to midnight). The
bulk of the precip with this first round should end around
midnight or shortly thereafter for Coconino County, and before
sunrise in eastern Arizona. All of these trends are covered well
in our current forecasts, and no updates are expected this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...Active weather including the first
widespread significant snowfall of the season set to take place
in northern Arizona over the next 48-60 hours. Very good model
agreement has led to little change in the forecast this morning.
No changes have been made to the previously issued Wind Advisory
and Winter Weather Advisory products.

In advance of system number one, we are seeing a fairly large
area of rain showers early this morning, mainly along and south of
the Mogollon Rim. Some of the embedded heavier showers have
produced brief periods of moderate rainfall. Expect shower
activity to expand in coverage through the day as the associated
cold front draws closer to the region. Precipitation through mid
afternoon will be in the form of rain below 9000 feet.
Strengthening south to southwest winds aloft will mix down to the
surface through the morning and into the afternoon resulting in
gusts of 40-55 mph across a large portion of northern Arizona. The
cold front will push from west to east late this afternoon,
reaching the New Mexico border by late tonight. Snow levels will
rapidly fall behind the front, to between 5000-6000 feet. The most
impactful snow accumulations tonight will likely be limited to
areas above 6500 feet where a general 2-4 inches is anticipated.
Locally higher amounts are expected above 8000 feet. Travel may
become hazardous at times tonight across the High Country.

The first system will depart on Sunday morning with latest model
guidance consistent in showing a break in precipitation for the
area. The break will be short-lived as a system number 2 drops
southeast toward the state Sunday afternoon. This system will be
stronger, colder, and also will have a bit more moisture to work
with. Widespread precipitation will develop Sunday evening and
continue through early Monday. A reinforcing shot of cold air
with this system will cause snow levels to tumble below 5000 feet
on Sunday night. 5-10 inches of snow are forecast along the
higher elevations (above 6500 feet) of the Mogollon Rim with 1-4
inches possible as low as 5000 feet. This system does have the
potential to produce banded precipitation along the Rim so locally
higher amounts are a definite possibility. Best advice is to
avoid travel on Sunday night and early Monday if at all possible.

Precipitation will end from west to east on Monday morning with
clearing skies and chilly temperatures. Expect very cold
temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning with lighter winds
and fresh snowpack. Single digits are forecast across some of our
colder high elevation spots. Cool weather looks to persist
through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...A strong cold front will move from
west to east across northern Arizona starting this afternoon. S-SW
winds 20-30 with gusts of 35-45kts through 00Z then decreasing.
Winds of 10 to 20kts with gusts up to 30kts could persist through
the night. BKN-OVC CIGS at and above 130 MSL to lower through the
day, with areas of MVFR ceilings later this morning over higher
terrain. KINW should be VFR but have strong downslope winds. -SHRA
coverage to increase and and change over to -SHSN from west to
east this afternoon and evening. MVFR and IFR conditions are
likely in SHSN, and along SW facing terrain after 06z due to
upslope stratus. Showers will decrease from west to east after
10Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong south to southwest winds will
continue today across as a cold front cross northern Arizona from
west to east. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures and scattered rain
and snow showers across much of the region. A second and stronger
storm system will move across the area Sunday night, with additional
rain and snow.  Many locations will record wetting precipitation.

Monday through Wednesday...Snow and valley rain will continue Monday
morning, then clearing from west to east through the day. Lighter
winds and dry weather return starting Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory
from 5 PM Sunday to 8 AM MST Monday FOR AZZ004-006-007-015-016-038.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>017-038>040.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
AZZ011-017-039.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Yavapai County Mountains

When
November 7, 11:30 AM MST
Where
Yavapai County Mountains forecast zone
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.600, -112.554 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winds of at least 60 MPH were reported in Diamond Valley. Small branches up to one inch in diameter were broken off trees and large trees were swaying.

High Wind, Western Mogollon Rim

When
November 7, 1:58 PM MST to 3:52 PM MST
Where
Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The wind at the Flagstaff Airport gusted over 58 MPH between around 1 PM and 4 PM MST. Wind gusts of 60 MPH were reported at 158 and 352 PM MST.

High Wind, Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County

When
November 7, 2:25 PM MST to 3:15 PM MST
Where
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County forecast zone
Measured
59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Mesonet wind sensor at Two Guns reported wind gust over 58 MPH between around 225 PM and 315 PM MST. The peak wind gust of 68 MPH was recorded at 233 PM MST.

High Wind, White Mountains

When
November 7, 7:02 PM MST to 7:22 PM MST
Where
White Mountains forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.398, -109.905 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The wind sensor on Greens Peak (10,118 feet MSO) reported wind gust 58 MPH or higher between 702 and 722 PM MST. The peak wind of 59 MPH was reported at 722 PM MST.

High Wind, Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County

When
November 7, 8:15 PM MST to 9:15 PM MST
Where
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County forecast zone
Measured
53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
35.396, -109.489 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Springerville Airport reported wind gust over 58 MPH between 1015 PM and 1115 PM MST. The peak wind gust of 61 MPH was recorded at 1030 PM MST.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, November 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 927847, 927844, 927845, 927843, 927545.