High Wind and Strong Wind in California, January 16, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
334 PM PST Thu Jan 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving system will impact the area through
tonight with gusty winds and mountain snow showers ending by
daybreak Friday. High pressure takes control for the weekend, with
north breezes lingering down the Colorado River Valley. Next
week, another round of unsettled weather looks possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Forecast shaping up about as expected so far. Axis of sharp,
upper-level trough coming onto the California shore, with plume of
moisture and upper-level lift aimed at the central and northern
Sierra Nevada, slowly sinking southward. Fairly widespread gusts
of 35 to 50 MPH have developed in the Wind Advisory/Warnings
areas, though the higher speeds have been a bit slower to develop
than some of the high res guidance might have indicated earlier.
Nonetheless, as gradients continue to tighten and pressure falls
start occuring in central/northern Nevada, would expect gusts to
continue to increase this evening, then begin shifting eastward
into Utah tonight.

Precipitation amounts are relatively unchanged, with the Sierra
Nevada above 5,000 feet taking most of the snow, with a quick
trace or inch or two spilling over into the Owens Valley. One
feature that has been becoming clearer involves increase potential
in the Spring Mountains. A plume of low level moisture will eject
over the region quickly tonight, creating a couple hour window for
Spring Mountain snow overnight tonight, perhaps laying down a
quick few inches.

Winds decrease after midnight tonight, with cooler temperatures
for most of the area and north winds increasing down the Colorado
River Valley for Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday.

Medium-range models still continuing to advertise an unsettled
midweek next week. A weekend ridge will first be broken down by a
weak southern stream trough ejecting over the area, likely
bringing abundant high clouds with it. A more defined/deeper
trough is then expected to dig down the coast, then move east
across the region Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing another
round of wind and Sierra snow with it.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...For the rest of the daylight hours
today, minimal impacts are expected for the McCarran terminal.
However, an approaching storm system will result in LLWS concerns
for airspace over the Sierra and turbulence issues for most
western approaches. PIREPS are recommended through the TAF period
as a result.

Winds are expected to shift to initially the southeast briefly
this evening, then prevail out of the south-southwest moving into
the overnight hours. Wind gusts are expected to increase up to
potentially as high as 30 kts, especially after 10PM. Still
believe the prevailing direction should stay west of south
throughout the majority of the overnight hours but speeds will
stay elevated through at least 12Z. Can't rule out a sprinkle but
only included VCSH in the TAF since this shouldn't be an impact.
Ceilings will also briefly fall to around 8kft overnight but
return to all clear visual approaches after 12Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Main concerns this TAF period will be at KBIH/KVGT/KHND
as a passing storm system complicates flight conditions through 12Z
tomorrow. KBIH winds are expected to increase continue out of the
south, reaching as high as 40 kts. A quick opportunity for snow
showers and lowered ceilings aob 3kft is possible after 03Z this
evening.

KVGT/KHND will also be dealing with gusty south and southwest winds
later in the evening (after 05Z) and ceilings lowering to 8kft.
Winds should subside for the most part after 12Z.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Steele
AVIATION.....TB3

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter