An upper level disturbance produced scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of a stalling front over Central Texas. Locally heavy rain brought isolated flash flooding in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
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The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance produced scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of a stalling front over Central Texas. Locally heavy rain brought isolated flash flooding in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 3:30 AM CST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 330 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Tonight/ Increasing rain chances and cooler conditions are the main headlines in the short term forecast period. The radarscope as of 0300 CST was starting to illuminate with isolated to widely scattered showers developing. Area VWPs sampled a veering low level wind field with 925-850mb flow becoming more east/southeasterly resulting in gradual upglide along the surface front which was located roughly near a Tyler to to Burnet line. Ahead of this boundary, some patchy to areas of fog will develop through the pre-dawn hours as the windshift has not effectively overturned the boundary layer. At this time, dense fog appears unlikely and I will forgo any advisories. Trends will be monitored through the morning. As we head through the morning hours, I expect a proliferation of convective activity as low level ascent intensifies ahead of a diffuse wave expected to eject out into the Big Country around 1000 CST. While most areas should see some measurable rainfall today, the most concentrated rain/storm activity will initially be focused near and just north of the I-20 corridor this morning before shifting to the west and north through the day. Instability in general will be on the order of a few hundred Joules per kilogram and for that reason, I'll only advertise isolated thunderstorms. Severe weather prospects appear low, but I wouldn't be surprised if a stronger embedded updraft produced brief bouts of small hail. It'll be much cooler today compared to the past few periods as cold advection coupled with the cloud, rain and storms should keep temperatures in check. If the NAM is to verify (which is entirely possible), some areas across the Big Country may fall into the upper 30s this morning and struggle to get above 40. This would be a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Other areas will likely remain in the 50s (5 to 8 degrees below normal) with some 60s/70s possible as technical "high temperatures" for the day across the Brazos Valley. Note, however, many locations will see their high temperatures early on today and the CAA will result in increasingly cooler conditions as we venture into the afternoon and toward nightfall. We should see a brief lull in the rain/isolated thunderstorm activity this evening and into the night as we await the next impulse arriving from the west. During this time, a surge of moisture---likely associated with the retreating front---will slosh back to the west and northwest. This could result in another round of rain/storms as well as fog. For now, I'll keep mention of fog out of the forecast, but it may need to be added as warm/moist air slides atop the cooler near surface layer. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Friday through Wednesday/ Another dreary day is expected on Friday areawide with rain chances increasing as we go through the day. A large upper trough will be ejecting into the Plains during the day allowing surface pressures to rapidly fall. As an area of low pressure develops and moves northeast, our cold front will quickly return north as a warm front by afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be maximized within a concentrated area of 925-850 mb warm advection just to the northwest of the CWA during the morning hours, and most of the ongoing rainfall will be in that area. We'll likely still have some areas of rain ongoing farther east and south, but rain chances will increase throughout North Texas during the afternoon hours. As the upper trough continues eastward into the evening hours, a cold front will slide south into the region by night. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will precede the front with precipitation coming to an end from west to east overnight. A lack of appreciable instability will be the main limiting factor for a better coverage of thunderstorms through the day. The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice and seasonably cool. Skies will clear early Saturday and highs will top out in the mid to upper 50s. A brisk north wind will make it feel a little cooler. Continued cold advection into Sunday will mean another cool day. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 50s. We'll likely see a late day increase in mid and high cloud cover on Sunday which may also help limit temperatures. A strong disturbance swinging through the mid-Mississippi River Valley on Monday will send another cold front through the area. This system should be dry but it will make for a chilly Monday and Tuesday with highs likely staying in the upper 40s for most areas. Moisture will return on Wednesday ahead of a potent late week system that will likely bring additional rain chances. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 1204 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/ /06Z TAFs/ Concerns---Rain chances increasing through the morning hours. Thunder potential primarily predawn through mid-morning. Prolonged IFR from the daylight hours Thursday into Thursday night. Spotty showers have begun developing behind the surface position of an advancing cold front. Additional convective elements are likely through sunrise as warm/moist advection up the frontal slope intensifies. Lift from an approaching impulse will encourage a few embedded thunder-bearing updrafts to occur. Buoyant inflow will maintain activity through and beyond the morning push. The proximity of the surface front will maintain a shallow postfrontal layer, the rain into which will deteriorate flying conditions into the IFR category during the daylight hours Thursday. The surface winds will steadily gain an easterly component, which should preclude any improvement late Thursday into Thursday evening. The ongoing moist isentropic upglide may actually worsen conditions with drizzle continue beyond the end of the convective event. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 44 57 49 58 / 80 60 80 70 5 Waco 56 47 63 51 62 / 70 30 70 60 10 Paris 54 43 52 48 56 / 70 40 70 80 10 Denton 47 46 55 46 56 / 90 70 90 70 5 McKinney 49 46 56 48 56 / 80 60 80 80 5 Dallas 51 48 57 49 59 / 80 60 80 70 5 Terrell 56 47 59 49 59 / 80 40 70 80 10 Corsicana 58 50 65 53 61 / 60 30 60 70 20 Temple 56 55 64 53 62 / 60 40 60 50 20 Mineral Wells 46 45 52 44 56 / 90 70 80 50 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 24/91
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 343 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170945- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 343 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Fog will be possible this morning across the Brazos Valley and visibility may be reduced down to 1 mile. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across North and Central Texas. Widespread severe weather looks unlikely, but a few strong storms capable of small hail cannot be discounted. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Storm chances return Friday and linger through early Saturday with another cold front. Although the threat of severe weather appears low, heavy rain may reaggravate flooding issues, particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor. A slight chance of storms will return on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:59 UTC.
5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Fire and Rescue reported a high water rescue near the intersection of Wichita Street and Mansfield Highway in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
Fire and rescue reported a high water rescue near the intersection of Hemphill and West Rosedale Streets in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
Fire and Rescue reported a high water rescue near the 5600 Block of East Lancaster Blvd in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
Fire and rescue reported a high water rescue near the interchange of East Rosedale Street and East Loop 820 in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
Fire and Rescue reported a high water rescue near the 7400 block of Lancaster Avenue in the city of Fort Worth, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873238, 873240, 873241, 873242, 873243.