A strong storm system moved into Kansas bringing quite a bit of moisture with it. The main issue with this system would be temperatures and the precipitation type.
Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
A strong storm system moved into Kansas bringing quite a bit of moisture with it. The main issue with this system would be temperatures and the precipitation type. Trying to decipher the liquid/frozen line would prove difficult. Once the transition to ice did occur, it did not last long but did hit with a cause significant issues.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 9:42 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 942 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 Current plan is to go with a winter storm warning for areas generally along the KS Turnpike, which is where we have the highest confidence in elevated surfaces seeing a quarter inch of ice or more. Not out of the question this may eventually be expanded based on surface temp trends. Want to reiterate that we are not expecting a quarter inch of ice or more on roadways, but rather on elevated surfaces such as trees. However, do feel that bridges and overpasses will be very icy for the Fri morning commute across most of the area, even for locations outside of the warning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 358 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 A complex forecast scenario is unfolding over the next 24-36 hours. The science behind the forecast is very important, but I want to get to the key forecast takeaways first... 1) Precipitation looks to develop mid to late evening now, instead of early evening, which should make for a normal evening commute tonight. 2) Sub-freezing temperatures should hold on a bit longer into the morning Friday, extending the threat of icing through the Friday morning commute. 3) Accumulation-wise, we trended icing amounts up some areawide, and trended lower with snow/sleet. 4) The only headline change was to add Chautauqua to the Winter Weather Advisory. Satellite imagery and objective upper air analysis this afternoon shows a shortwave moving into the Four Corners region. A marked increase in low-level moisture transport and deep, broad WAA is occurring across the Southern/Central Great Plains ahead of this wave. Within this zone of increasing moisture transport and WAA, regional radar shows a broad area of light to moderate precipitation from the Rio Grand Valley of Texas north to just south of the OK/KS border. As the 850 mb ridge shifts east, the flow will veer and increase, with trajectories right off the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow an anomalous surge of moisture to advect into the region through Friday on a 50-60 kt LLJ. Meanwhile, a strong SFC high continues to slide southeast across the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Temps beneath this high are very cold (single digits and teens) with even lower dewpoints. This high will continue to funnel cold/dry air southwest into Kansas through tonight. Eventually, the low-level flow will become more southerly, allowing a gradual increase in SFC temps on Friday. Before then, though, the anomalous moisture will overrun the cold/dry air at the SFC, setting the stage for an impactful winter event. Model guidance is in very good agreement on the above. Where differences being to creep in is the warm layer aloft as well as the depth of the cold layer near the SFC. Those two layer will be battling for control of the precipitation type and guidance differs on which layer wins out and when. Comparing forecast soundings with recent 12z upper air soundings suggests the NAM is currently handling the thermal profiles the best and the forecast was trended that direction. The net effect with that is a slightly longer duration of freezing rain and a shorter duration of sleet/snow. If you take straight QPF and make that ice accumulation, you get some significant icing amounts (as straight model output might show). We caution using that data and here's why. The anomalous moisture combined with some weak instability and modest large scale forcing for ascent should support heavier precip rates at times. So, while we will likely see moderate to high QPF amounts (for this time of year), the higher precip rates should lead to increased runoff. Increased runoff tends to limit how much ice can accumulate on any surface. Additionally, during the height of the precip intensity, surface temps will be a bit more marginal for ice accretion (ie. in that 31-33 range). So, while we do anticipate travel and societal impacts, the thinking is that the above-mentioned factors will keep this from being a significant/damaging icing event. As previous shifts have mentioned, we encourage folks to pay attention to temperatures in their area. If SFC temps end up holding in the upper 20s or if precip rates end up lower, the threat of significant icing will increase. For this forecast, we are going to hold with a strongly-worded Winter Weather Advisory, but will be closely monitoring trends to see if any local upgrades are needed. This Advisory will have some higher icing amounts in it than might normally be seen with an Advisory for ice, primarily due to the limitations of runoff. Across SE KS, thinking the precip type will be mostly rain, with 1 to 1.5" of rain likely. We'll hold off on a Flood Watch for now, but rises in creeks and streams are likely. Should rainfall amounts come in higher, some flooding cannot be ruled out. Martin .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 358 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 Sat...A dry post-frontal regime is anticipated at the start of the period with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Sun-Mon...An upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to amplify across the western CONUS as we move through the weekend while a progressive shortwave trough races eastward across the Great Lakes region. This will drive another surge of arctic air southward across the central CONUS with below normal temperatures arriving late Sunday into Monday. Highs on Mon may struggle to reach freezing across much of the area. Tue-Fri...Moderating temperatures can be expected as we move toward the middle of the week. The amplified mid/upper ridge across the Rockies is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS on Tue. This will allow southerly flow and moderating temperatures to return to the region. A subtle shortwave trough may bring some light precipitation to the region toward the middle of the week with increasing uncertainty toward the end of the period. We may see another more robust mid/upper trough impacting the Central Plains toward the end of the period, however phase/amplitude uncertainties remain resulting in lower confidence at this time. MWM && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 622 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 After a decent start with all areas under a thick but fairly high overcast & unlimited vsbys the situation deteriorates rapidly late this eve. At 17/00Z a strong upper-deck trof was situated directly over the West Coast. As the trof moves E it'll take on a negative tilt as it crosses the Great Basin late tonight. This would induce sfc troffing to increase along the Front Range. Lower-deck warm, moist advection increases. With a warm layer above freezing from about 4,000-7,000ft overriding freezing temps FZRA & PL would develop across all areas. Cigs & vsbys would rapidly deteriorate with IFR cigs in most areas by ~06Z then LIFR by 09Z. KSLN would be the exception with IFR cigs arriving around 12Z. Vsbys would likewise deteriorate rapidly with 2-3SM predominant from late this eve thru Fri afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 A solid 0.50 to 1.50" of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected over the next 24-36 hours. Would not be surprised to see a few areas approach 2" of rain in SE KS given the anomalous moisture coming in. Some nuisance lowland and urban flooding is likely, with rises in creeks and streams also expected. If some of the higher rainfall amounts are realized, then a few rivers could near Action/Minor flood stage. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 28 40 31 43 / 100 100 20 0 Hutchinson 27 40 29 42 / 100 80 10 0 Newton 25 39 28 41 / 100 100 20 0 ElDorado 27 39 30 42 / 100 100 40 0 Winfield-KWLD 30 41 32 45 / 100 100 40 0 Russell 21 40 26 42 / 100 70 10 0 Great Bend 24 40 27 43 / 100 70 10 0 Salina 24 39 27 40 / 100 90 20 0 McPherson 25 39 27 40 / 100 90 20 0 Coffeyville 32 40 33 45 / 100 100 70 0 Chanute 30 38 31 41 / 100 100 60 0 Iola 26 37 30 40 / 100 100 70 0 Parsons-KPPF 30 39 32 43 / 100 100 70 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098. && UPDATE...RBL SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...MWM AVIATION...EPS HYDROLOGY...RM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 409 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172215- Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase- Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper- Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette- 409 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas, South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of freezing rain will develop from southwest to northwest this evening, possibly starting as a mix of sleet and snow. Across far southeast Kansas, mostly rain is expected, possibly starting as a brief mix of sleet and freezing rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Sleet and freezing rain will gradually transition to rain on Friday. Minor to moderate impacts from ice and snow are expected. Scattered power outages and minor tree damage will be possible. Please see the Winter Weather Advisory for additional details. Across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas, rises in creeks and streams can be expected along with minor lowland and urban flooding. There will be another opportunity for wintry precipitation mid to late week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected, but any reports of ice or snow are appreciated. && For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict Martin/MWM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 winter storm, 2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.4 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.4 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations up to 0.25 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.2 and 0.4 inches. Slide offs were reported on highway 50 and highway 61.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations up to 0.25 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.4 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations up to 0.3 tenths of an inch being reported. Most locations varied between 0.1 and 0.25 inches of ice.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.2 and 0.4 inches.
Ice was collecting on all elevated surfaces and a few slick spots were noted on roads.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations up to 0.25 inches. Several slips and falls were being reported.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with most locations between 0.1 and 0.25 inches of ice.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.4 inches.
A mixture of snow then freezing rain occurred across the county with ice accumulations between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.
County roads were being reported as being very icy with travel issues.
A few slick spots were being reported but no significant issues had arisen.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 872095, 872091, 872105, 872102, 872104, 872092, 872089, 872096, 872101, 872107, 872103, 872090, 872100, 872098, 872112, 872109.