A wet February caused soils to be near saturation. Abundant Gulf moisture associated with approaching frontal boundaries and a southwesterly 500 MB flow produced additional heavy rainfall over the Cumberland Plateau.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A wet February caused soils to be near saturation. Abundant Gulf moisture associated with approaching frontal boundaries and a southwesterly 500 MB flow produced additional heavy rainfall over the Cumberland Plateau.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 2:46 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 246 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Rain continues to be the main focus for the forecast. Currently the heaviest and most widespread rain is along the frontal boundary that has stalled out across Northern Georgia into South Carolina. Depending on where/how this frontal boundary moves, it will remain the location for the most widespread rain showers. High resolution models keep the boundary relatively stationary as of early this morning. But that doesn't mean we won't see rain away from the front. Waves of showers will be possible away from the front, but chances decrease pretty quickly as you head north and west away from the frontal boundary. Instability this afternoon looks to be enough, especially near the boundary, that we could once again see a few rumbles of thunder. Rain chances will remain across most of the area, but hopefully many places get a break from rainfall today, and a brief chance to dry out. Shortwave will ride up along the front tonight into tomorrow. This will mean some of precipitation will move back towards Eastern Tennessee Valley. And with little time to dry out from previous rain, there is the chance to (once again) see flooding over locations that have recently received continuous rainfall over the past couple of weeks. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... A band of frontogenetic forcing along with PW values around 1.3 inches will be over the area through the day on Friday, further exacerbating the ongoing flooding problems as widespread amounts are expected to exceed one inch. A Flood Watch will likely be needed for that period, but will hold off on that for now as the day shift will have a better feel for how rivers are responding to the relative precip lull today, and still have 24 hours of lead time. The trend through Saturday will be a northward shift of the greatest forcing, mainly across srn KY and SW VA on Friday night, then into nrn KY/WV on Saturday. While a very moist air mass will remain, Saturday should provide a brief period of lower rain chances and QPF amounts. That changes on Saturday night as a low pressure system tracks NE from MO to the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through the area. A 50-60 kt LLJ will advect high theta-e air in the 330K range, while forcing aloft increases as the jet streak moves into the OH Valley. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be mentioned this period, and another half to 1 inch of precip is expected. The passage of the cold front is expected around 12Z Sunday. A much needs dry period with temperatures closer to normal is on track for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Model disagreement increases after that time, but the general consensus is that a trough and upper jet will be moving across southern Canada and the Great Lakes, which may bring a return of some low rain chances on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 48 56 51 / 60 70 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 46 53 49 / 40 70 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 58 46 53 50 / 30 70 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 44 51 45 / 30 60 80 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && ABM/DGS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 250 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-220800- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington- 250 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 /150 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Rainfall chances will continue today and increase tonight. With the recent rainfall over the past weeks... streams, rivers, and other low lying areas may see additional isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected across the area Friday and Friday night, then again on Saturday night. The heaviest rain looks to occur during the day on Friday. Since the ground is already saturated and streams are high, flooding can be expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports will be needed for flooding tonight through Saturday night.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Wet antecedent soils, with additional rain prior to and during the event. Portion of Hwy 70 collapsed near Cave Springs Road. Two vehicles involved, with one death and one injury.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debris Flow, Hawkins | 2019-02-21 | 62 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 811049.