Rip Current in Florida, February 21, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1258 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Atlantic showers could produce brief bouts of MVFR cigs along the
east coast terminals. West coast sea breeze is kicking off
convection around APF. Convection should linger through the
evening with a diminishing trend expected after sunset. Some
Atlantic showers may persist overnight and into Friday morning but
confidence is not high enough to include any restrictions at this
time. Some overnight fog could develop over inland SW Florida that
could reach to APF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019/

UPDATE...
Only minor updates to the forecast this morning to add mention of
showers. Generally southeasterly flow provided by surface high
pressure will allow warm, moist air to continue across the area
with some chances for showers. A Gulf sea breeze is expected to
develop late this morning into the afternoon, which could allow a
focus for showers along the west coast metro this afternoon.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appears to be on track.
Updated zones have been transmitted. Have a great Thursday!

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Some patchy fog has begun to develop across the interior Peninsula
this morning, but winds should remain just elevated enough such
that dense fog is not expected. Ridging aloft and fairly dry
conditions will keep temperatures running well above normal and
rain chances fairly low over the next couple of days, with only a
slight chance of showers expected. Heading into the weekend,
deeper moisture begins to return to the area as the ridging aloft
weakens and retreats to the southeast. This will allow for better
coverage of afternoon showers during the afternoons this weekend.

A cold front will push into Florida from the northwest on Sunday,
and with the retreat of the ridge, this front should make it into
South Florida Sunday night or Monday before finally stalling out.
Where exactly this boundary ends up will depend on the timing of
and how far to the southeast the ridge retreats as the front's
upper level support ejects off to the northeast. Once the ridge is
out of the picture, fairly zonal flow is expected overhead
through the rest of the forecast period. This will help keep the
stationary boundary around as a focus for rain showers through at
least mid week next week. Another cold front approaches the region
at the tail end of the forecast period.

MARINE...
Breezy SE winds and slightly elevated seas this morning should
continue to subside today. Passing showers will be possible
throughout the forecast period. A cold front will approach the
area late Sunday and stall out over South Florida around Monday.
SE winds will increase again this weekend as the gradient tightens
ahead of the front. Caution flags may be required at times.

NE swell could continue to cause increased surf and wave run up
for Palm Beach County beaches this morning. A high risk of rip
currents is forecast for all Atlantic beaches today.

BEACH FORECAST...
A high risk of rip currents continues today for all Atlantic
beaches. Please use caution and follow instructions from
lifeguards.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  84  72  84 /  20  20  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  73  84  74  83 /  20  10  30  40
Miami            73  84  74  85 /  20  10  30  30
Naples           68  86  70  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
220930-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
105 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue along the east
coast beaches of South Florida through at least the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG