Arizona, 2019Flood in Arizona, February 21 to 23, 2019
February 21 to 23, 2019 · NWS PSR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A powerful and nearly stationary winter storm developed over the desert southwest, and the system brought widespread desert rains along with heavy mountain snow to south central Arizona. Significant precipitation began on February 21st and continued into the 22nd.
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- Floods
- Wind
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- Heat and drought
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $2,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A powerful and nearly stationary winter storm developed over the desert southwest, and the system brought widespread desert rains along with heavy mountain snow to south central Arizona. Significant precipitation began on February 21st and continued into the 22nd. Many reporting stations across the greater Phoenix area picked up significant rains, in many cases in excess of one inch. The moderate to heavy rains resulted in episodes of areal flooding including flooding that occurred to the south of central Phoenix, in the area to the west of the town of Maricopa. According to the Arizona Department of Transportation, State Route 238 was closed 4 miles northwest of Ak-Chin. The road was closed at the intersection of State Route 347. The road remained closed at the intersection of State Route 347 all the way through 0530MST on February 23rd.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 6:28 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 6:28 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
628 PM MST Thu Feb 21 2019
.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will continue to affect the region tonight
before tapering off from west to east Friday. Precipitation will be
best east of the Lower Colorado River Valley. Significant
accumulating snow can be expected for elevations above 3000 feet
with very heavy snow above 4000 feet. Otherwise, expect much below
normal temperatures through Saturday before a slow warming trend
starts. A return to dry conditions are forecast into next week with
temperatures gradually warming back to near normals by late next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
After a very active day today,which saw snow fall as low as 2500
feet over northern and eastern Maricopa County, and strong to severe
thunderstorms that produced gusty winds and small hail, more
widespread rainfall is developing across the region at this hour. The
latest high-res models are now showing light-moderate rain to
continue to fall across south-central AZ tonight, with snow above
3500-4000 feet. As the upper low draws closer later tonight, snow
levels as once again expected to fall to around 3000 feet. Latest
HRRR and NAM 3km model output is showing QPF amounts for the
remainder of the storm ranging from 0.05 in western Yuma County,
0.50 to 1.25 inches over the greater Phoenix area, up to near 2.00
inches over the higher terrain of south Gila County. Snowfall
amounts of over 2 feet are likely over the highest peaks. Needless
to say, travel is highly discouraged across the region, with more
road closures likely tonight and early Friday. Localized flooding is
a good bet, especially over the lower elevations of northern and
eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
The steady rain/snow is expected to diminish to showers on Friday as
the main upper low center moves into the region and the main
moisture feed from the southwest begins to be cut off. Although
there will likely be a lot of breaks in the clouds by Friday
afternoon, the arrival of very cold air aloft (500mb temps in the -
30C to -32C range will likely destabilize the airmass enough to allow
scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms to develop. Some of the
stronger cells could briefly drop the freezing level low enough to
allow graupel, or even snow, to fall as low as as 1500-2000 ft
elevation.
Drier air will quickly work in from the west later Friday
with skies becoming mostly clear for the lower deserts by late
Friday evening. Freezing temperatures will once again be a
possibility in normally colder locations across the lower deserts.
After chilly daytime temperatures mostly in the 40s to around 50 for
the lower deserts, overnight lows into Saturday morning should again
end up around freezing. The coldest desert spots may dip into the
upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
The trough finally exits well to the east by Saturday morning with
dry westerly zonal flow taking over through Monday. Temperatures
will be slow to recover this weekend with highs still only in the
low to mid 50s Saturday over the Arizona deserts to around 60 in
the western deserts. Overnight lows Saturday night will again be
quite chilly, likely only a couple degree improvement over the
previous night's near freezing temperatures. Models are now
leaning to a bit quicker of a warm-up next week with a weak ridge
building across the Western U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. This
should allow highs to climb to around 70 degrees by Wednesday and
into the lower to middle 70s for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
The current winter storm system will continue to impact all
terminals through most of the 00Z TAF period. Stratiform light to
moderate rain is expected to persist through this evening and
possibly through most of tonight. Ceilings will continue to flirt
around MVFR, with CIGs as low as 2-3 kft and visibilities down to 3-
5 sm within showers. Showers are expected to scatter out and become
more isolated Friday morning. Wind directions will be tricky through
tonight due to the showers, creating some variability across the
Valley, but speeds should remain around 10 knots or less. Clouds and
visibilities should improve through Friday morning, after sunrise,
with CIGs rising to around 4-5 kft AGL by the afternoon. Additional,
wrap around isolated to scattered showers may develop across the
Phoenix metro Friday afternoon. Dry air is expected to arrive Friday
night, finally clearing skies.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The current winter storm system will continue to impact both
terminals through tonight. Gusty W to NW winds should subside
tonight and light showers should eventually taper off before sunrise
Friday. SCT o BKN clouds around 4-6 kft AGL will likely persist
through tonight, but may lower to 3 kft AGL at times in showers. Dry
NW flow is expected to clear the clouds at both terminals by Friday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up again Friday afternoon, with
up to 25 knots at KBLH and 20 knots at KIPL.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday: A strong winter storm will exit to the
east Friday night resulting in a drying and gradual warming trend
for the weekend into the middle of next week. Despite nearly
constant warming each day, highs will remain below normals through
next Tuesday although they will climb into mid to upper 60s over the
warmer lower deserts. Warmer deserts will finally approach normal
and reach the low 70s by next Wednesday. Humidity levels will remain
elevated through the period with drier deserts still mostly above 20
percent each day. Winds will tend to be on the light side during the
five day period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for AZZ545-557-558-
560>563.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ560.
&&
DISCUSSION...Percha/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...CBIn the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 21, 3:57 PM MST, 5 hours 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
357 PM MST THU FEB 21 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW TOLLESON 33.46N 112.28W
02/21/2019 MARICOPA AZ PUBLIC
TWITTER FOLLOWER SHARED PICTURES WITH US OF
WIND DAMAGE NEAR AVONDALE. THERE WERE
MULTIPLE PALO VERDES SNAPPED IN HALF, A
BIGGER TREE UPROOTED, A STREET SIGN BENT
OVER, AND A HONDA DEALERSHIP SIGN DAMAGED.
&&
BHLocal storm report, Feb 21, 7:46 PM MST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
746 PM MST THU FEB 21 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW TOLLESON 33.46N 112.27W
02/21/2019 MARICOPA AZ PUBLIC
BROKEN SRP POWER POLES.
&&
BHFlood, Pinal
- When
- February 21, 9:30 PM MST to February 23, 5:30 AM MST
- Where
- Pinal County, 10.87 mi W of Lirim to 3.36 mi WNW of Lirim
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Property damage
- $2,000
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
- Coordinates
- 33.041, -112.166
A slow moving and powerful winter storm brought moderate - and even locally heavy - rainfall to much of south-central Arizona on February 21st. Rainfall totals in excess of one inch led to areal flooding to the south of Phoenix during the overnight hours and into the morning on the 22nd. According to the Arizona Department of Highways, the flooding resulted in the closure of State Route 238 westbound 4 miles west of State Route 347. The closure was only a few miles west of the town of Maricopa. Areal Flood Warnings had been issued at 2130MST for areas east of the road closure, and they were expanded overnight to include the town of Maricopa and areas westward. Although the flood warnings eventually expired at 0900MST on the 22nd, the Department of Highways reported that the road remained closed at the intersection of State Route 238 and State Route 347 through 0530MST on February 23rd. No accidents were reported as a result of the flooding.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- Winter Weather in Idaho, February 21, 20191 death · 1 event
- Heavy Snow in Arizona, February 21 to 22, 2019$55,000 · 4 events
- Winter Storm in Arizona, February 21 to 22, 2019$27,000 · 12 events
- Heavy Snow and High Wind in New Mexico, February 21 to 23, 201957 kt wind · 30 events
- Damaging Wind in Arizona, February 21, 2019$30,000 · 56 kt wind · 1 event
- Rip Current in Florida, February 21, 20191 injured · 1 event
- Flooding in North Carolina, February 21 to 23, 2019$3,000 · 3 events
- Winter Storm in Alaska, February 21, 20192 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in California, February 21, 20192 events
- Hail in Mississippi, February 21, 20191 in hail · 1 event
- Heavy Snow in Arizona, February 21, 20191 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 800350.