Winter Storm and Lakeshore Flood in Michigan, November 27 to 28, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2019

...High-impact storm to bring heavy snow and strong winds tonight
into Wednesday...

A winter storm is still on track to impact the holiday travel across
the region tonight and Wednesday. Travel will be difficult to near
impossible over many areas of the UP, particularly Wednesday morning
as the best dynamics and moisture move across the area. This is a
quick hitting event with most of the snowfall occuring between early
morning and and early afternoon Wednesday.

Light snow showers have been scattered about this afternoon in the
northwest wind snow belts. Winds will swing around to the east
tonight as the surface low pressure approaches central Iowa. A large
shield of moderate precipitation associated with isentropic lift
will push into the UP around midnight. Warmer air getting pulled
into the low levels overnight should result in an rain/snow mix for
eastern areas and those near the Lake Michigan and Lake Superior
shorelines initially. Most areas will transition quickly to all snow
during the early morning hours as the precipitation intensity
becomes heavy with snow fall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
expected. The exception will be areas near Lake Michigan, where
precipitation may not transition to all snow until Wednesday
evening. Overall have gone with a 10 to 1 snow ratio with lower
ratios near the lakeshores. Some of the models don't align the DGZ
with the best lift which could bring snow ratios down a bit further.
As far as QPF, NBM guidance came in even higher with the continued
addition of the hires models into the blend. Felt it would be
difficult to achieve the precip rates advertised by the NBM so went
with the 50th percentile QPF. Combining QPF and snow ratios results
in widespread snow amounts of 8 to 12 inches across much of the UP.
The exception is higher totals where we have terrain influences,
particularly NW Marquette county into northern Baraga county.
Significantly less snowfall is expected near Lake Michigan where
temperatures will remain on the warm side. Winds become strong
overnight, gusting to 40 mph, and back to the north through the day
Wednesday. Blowing snow will be an issue along Lake Superior and
open areas, especially Wednesday late morning and afternoon as
temperatures fall. Blizzard conditions are still expected in
Keweenaw with the combination of heavy snow and blowing snow.
Synoptic lift will exit the region during Wednesday afternoon but
light lake effect snow showers will continue into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2019

Tomorrow night into early Thanksgiving morning:
As the well-advertised low (above) traverses off toward the east-
northeast tomorrow night, north to northeast winds will allow for
lake-effect snow to briefly take over through the overnight hours
in those wind belt regions. Additional snow amounts of 1 to 3
inches will be possible, with locally higher amounts possible in
the highlands of Marquette into Baraga counties. As drier air
filters into the region Thursday morning, expect the LES to wind
down and taper off, with perhaps some freezing/drizzle mixing in
before completely dissipating on Thanksgiving.

Thursday afternoon into Friday morning:
With ridging temporarily building into the Upper Great Lakes, and
the aforementioned drier air along with it, much of Upper Michigan
will remain dry albeit cloudy through this period. However, the
benign conditions will be rather short-lived as the ridge
continues its quick trek overhead.

Midday Friday into Sunday:
Shortwave developing on the backside of the ridge, embedded within
the fringes of the trough centered over the Rockies by this time
frame, will make a pass through the forecast area, allowing for
some low-end chances of precip to start to develop out ahead of
the main system. With these latest deterministic model runs of the
big three, there is some general agreement of the track of this
next snow-maker. The associated surface low will develop on the
leeside of the Rockies on Friday, then march practically due
eastward across the Central Plains through the weekend. On Sunday,
this low is projected to be crossing the southern fringes of the
Great Lakes region, leaving the U.P. on the chilly, moist side of
the low. Therefore, a prolonged period of snow will be possible
for most, if not the entire forecast area. Some uncertainty
remains with the models this far out, of course, particularly with
respect to anticipated amounts. The Canadian keeps the higher QPF
values to the south of the U.P. with the GFS and ECMWF ushering in
a widespread swath essentially directly overhead. So, with all of
this said, where there is confidence and consistency is in the
following: system snow is likely during this time period, with the
best chances/highest amounts looking to occur Saturday into
Saturday night. Lake-enhancement will be possible, especially as
the wind components become more northerly to northeasterly on
Sunday. Some rain may mix in in the far south-central, depending
on how far north some warmer air may attempt to move in (this
scenario would be more likely if the low takes a more northerly
track across the Great Lakes). Regardless, expect travel impacts
for this holiday weekend.

Early Monday into Tuesday:
With the system gone by this period, lake-effect may be all that
remains, and have kept mentionable PoPs in for this period.
Currently, the impacts appear to be on the low side as compared to
the approaching system tonight and this next one on the horizon
this weekend.

Temperatures:
Although there will be some variations in temps from day-to-day,
generally speaking, near normal temps look to prevail through the
extent of the long-term period. Saturday could be the warmest day,
as some warmer air attempts to advect in (aforementioned),
although still only topping out in the mid 30s at the highest.
Cooler temps then look to take over (but still within a few
degrees of normal) early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2019

This evening into the overnight hours, expect MVFR ceilings to
gradually lower into the IFR range across all terminals, with light
snow possible. Conditions change rapidly during the morning hours on
Wednesday around the 0800-1200Z time frame as a winter storm
(currently south of the area) lifts northeast and brings with it
wet, heavy snow to all terminals. IFR to VLIFR ceilings and
visibilities will accompany this snow, along with strong northeast
winds gusting upwards of 30 to 45 knots (highest winds expected at
KCMX), so blowing snow will aid in causing significant reductions in
visibilities. Tried to fine tune timing for the onset of potential
for VLIFR visibilities due to the heavy snow, but there could be a
few adjustments to timing yet in subsequent forecasts. It should be
noted that the snow is expected will be wet and dense and accumulate
rapidly during the heaviest snow...so traction will be greatly
reduced on snow covered surfaces.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 504 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2019

Storm force wind gusts up to 55 knots are expected late tonight into
Wed morning. The stronger wind speeds will also cause higher waves
which will lead to some lakeshore flooding as well which really gets
going on Wed as the storm force winds will be east and northeast.
The wind drops below gales late Wed night. Next gale event looks to
be Sat with another strong fall storm approaching the area. This
would be an east northeast gale event.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6
     PM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009>011-084.

  Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
     for MIZ003>007-085.

  Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9
     PM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ001>003-009.

  Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ001.

  Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
     for MIZ005-006.

  Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ004.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ012>014.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM
     EST /noon CST/ Wednesday for MIZ012>014.

Lake Superior...
  Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ243>251-
     264>267.

  Storm Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 4 PM EST
     /3 PM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240>242-263.

Lake Michigan...
  Storm Warning until 9 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ248-250.

  Gale Warning until 9 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ221.

&&

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...NL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
502 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-272215-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
502 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 /402 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Blizzard conditions will occur in the northern portions of the
Keweenaw Peninsula.

Elsewhere, wet, heavy snow and strong winds will develop late
tonight across much of Upper Michigan. Travel will become
treacherous to dangerous, especially by early Wednesday morning.
See the latest Winter Weather Message for additional information.

Strong north to northeast winds will create up to 18 foot waves
along much of the Lake Superior shoreline on Wednesday, with
locally higher waves possible. This will lead to beach erosion and
lakeshore flooding. See the latest Lakeshore Hazards Message for
additional information.

Strong east to northeasterly winds will cause winds to build up to
6 to 8 feet within the Bay of Green Bay, and up to around 14 feet
along portions of the Lake Michigan shoreline on Wednesday. This
may lead to beach erosion and lakeshore flooding, including within
Menominee, Delta, and Schoolcraft counties. The largest waves are
expected to impact the eastern shoreline of the Garden Peninsula.
See the latest Lakeshore Hazards Message for additional
information.

Another winter storm will be possible this weekend, particularly
on Saturday into Saturday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
via our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-272215-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
502 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 /402 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

North to northeast storm-force winds to near 50 knots are
expected to develop by late tonight. See the latest Open Lake
Forecast and Marine Weather Message for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

North to northeast storm-force winds to near 53 knots are
expected through Wednesday evening. See the latest Open Lake
Forecast and Marine Weather Message for further details.

Gale-force wind gusts may return Saturday into Sunday across much
of the lake.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
via our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

LMZ221-248-250-272215-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
502 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

East to northeast gales to near 50 knots are expected to develop
late tonight. After a brief lull, northwest gales to 40 knots
will return Wednesday evening. See the latest Nearshore Forecast
and Marine Weather Message for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

North to northeast gales to near 50 knots are expected to continue
into Wednesday morning. After a brief lull, northerly gales to 40
knots will return Wednesday evening.

Gale-force wind gusts may return Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
via our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

lg