A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 10 miles northeast of Durango.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 10 miles northeast of Durango.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 10:41 PM MST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1141 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Another warm summer evening continues across the western slope thanks to high pressure entrenched over the east central Rocky Mountains. The forecast today ended up a hair warmer than expected, likely due to a slight delay in the forecast moisture/dewpoint increase. That being said, showers and thunderstorms had a bit more areal coverage than was seen on Thursday, and a few instances of small hail and gusty winds were evident on radar. Activity will wane this evening with a mainly dry overnight dominated by terrain-driven wind flow and partly cloudy skies. Clouds should help keep things slightly warmer once again tonight, similar to what was seen on Thursday night into Friday morning. Forecast guidance remains in agreement showing an increase in PWAT values and moisture content over the western slope on Saturday as a result of an eastward shift of the broad high-pressure system. This will result in an uptick in convective coverage as well as rainfall amounts underneath stronger thunderstorm cells. Shear will be negligible and freezing levels typical for mid-summer, so not expecting much in the way of a hail threat...however outflow winds will be more common with deeper cold pools. With the increase in moisture, activity will likely linger later into the evening and move off the higher terrain, so higher PoP values will be carried deeper into the night than we have seen previously this week. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A weak wave will pass through the northern Rockies on Sunday. While Utah and Colorado will be well-removed from any direct affects from this system, a slight increase in upper-level flow will help aid storm organization. An ensemble of forecast guidance indicates that PWAT values will peak over the western slope late on Sunday morning. Due to the influences of the trough to the north and PWAT maximum, convective coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest on Sunday. The main threats will be heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and perhaps some small sub-severe hail in the strongest cores. Expect earlier convective initiation on Sunday, perhaps as early as 11am or so in the highest terrain, and expect thunderstorms to move off the terrain and affect lower valleys as well. Temperatures will continue a slight downward trend, running near seasonal averages in the populated valleys. On the heels of the initial trough in the northern Rockies, a more broad trough will settle into the west coast on Monday and Tuesday. This feature will act to shunt the persistent high pressure over the southwest farther south and east, thus lowering moisture return into the Four Corners. The net result will be lower convective coverage on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A steady decline in PWAT values is noted in all guidance members through this period, which should also result in warmer afternoon highs as cloud cover is reduced. The warmest day next week looks to be on Wednesday or Thursday when afternoon highs could run around 5 degrees above average, and approach triple-digits in places like Grand Junction and Delta. By Friday, forecast guidance diverges as the GFS and GEM return monsoonal flow to the Four Corners. The ECMWF favors a dry pattern through next weekend as it tracks a broad trough through the northwest. Climatology favors monsoonal flow by mid July over the Four-Corners, and the ECMWF's trough appears out of place for this time of year. Therefore, we will favor the more traditional look of the GFS for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Mid and high level cloudiness left over from decaying convection will drift across the region overnight with no impact with VFR conditions. This cloudiness is likely to linger into Saturday with additional storms expected over the hills and some valleys by the afternoon hours. Coverage will be limited and therefore confidence in putting in TAF forecast attm is very low. However gusty winds continue to be the main threat from any afternoon shower or storm. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 426 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-131030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 426 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the high terrain this afternoon with gusty outflow winds and lightning the primary concerns. Valleys should remain dry and hot. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorm chances and coverage increase over the weekend with locally heavy rain, small hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The 441 Fire began in mid July due to lightning about 10 miles northeast of Durango and grew to 325 acres before it was contained in early August.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 834814.