Rip Current in Florida, July 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.AVIATION...
Mainly dry and VFR conditions prevail for east coast terminals
this afternoon. Generally E-SE flow around 10-12 knots with a few
occasional gust. A stray shower can not be ruled out. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop over the western interior
and Gulf coast this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS at KAPF beginning
at 19-20Z. Any storms that move near terminal will be handled with
amendments for any MVFR/IFR conditons. Storms begin to diminsh
this evening with southeast flow continuing overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 938 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019/

UPDATE...
Southeasterly flow across the region as high pressure in the
Atlantic continues to build. Saharan air layer has moved in
across the area to help inhibit some shower and storm potential.
A few stray showers over the Atlantic have been drying up before
they reach the east coast, but a stray shower can't be ruled out.
As the sea breeze develops most of the afternoon convection will
be focused over the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon, with
the east coast metro remaining mostly dry. Any storms that develop
will be capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall
and brief gusty winds. Storms will begin to diminish later this
evening towards sunset. No major changes to the current forecast,
with POPs lower on the east coast and highest chances over
interior and SW Florida.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Many areas will remain dry through the early morning hours. The
exception to this will be over the Atlantic waters where there
will be just a slight chance of showers. Low temperatures will
range from the lower 70s across the northwestern interior sections
to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas. A ridge of
high pressure will continue to strengthen and build westward
across South Florida from the western Atlantic. This will allow
for drier air to continue to filter into the region throughout the
rest of the weekend. This combined with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
will help to keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms lower
then what we would typically see during a regular summertime
pattern. Even though the drier air will remain in place, scattered
shower and thunderstorm development will remain possible along
the east and west coast sea breezes. The greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be located across the interior and
west coast sections due to the prevalent southeasterly flow
currently in place. High temperatures over the weekend will remain
on the warm side as they will rise into the lower 90s across the
east coast metro areas to the mid 90s across interior sections.
The heat index values will need to be monitored throughout the
weekend, especially with values approaching the 105-108 degree
range across the interior and west coast sections on Saturday and
Sunday afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the western
Atlantic through the early portion of next week. Drier air will
still remain in place, however, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
have moved northward out of the area by this point in time.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along
the sea breezes during this time frame. Once again, the greatest
coverage of thunderstorms will be across the interior and west
coast sections due to the southeasterly flow. As the middle of the
week approaches, both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a
trough moving off the eastern seaboard. There still remains
differences between the two models as far as how fast the trough
moves offshore and how far south it will actually go. The latest
computer model guidance however continues to show it staying to
the north of the region. Confidence in the extended period still
remains on the low side and this will continue to be monitored as
the week progresses. High temperatures during the middle of the
week will range from around 90 across the east coast metro areas
to the mid 90s across the interior sections.

MARINE...
A southeasterly wind flow will prevail throughout the weekend and
into early next week as an area of high pressure over the western
Atlantic remains in control of the weather pattern across the local
waters. Seas will generally remain at 3 feet or less across the
Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible throughout the forecast period. Winds and
waves could be locally higher in and around any shower or
thunderstorm.

BEACH FORECAST...
Normally, rip current risk over the Gulf beaches should remain
low under SE flow. However, latest NWPS model data and internal
calculators suggest that the risk will stay on the moderate
range, especially with Barry's influence on the overall swells in
the Gulf. In addition, our adjacent weather office in Tampa is
keeping Lee county under a high risk of rip currents. Therefore,
the moderate risk for the Gulf beaches of SoFlo will remain in
place today.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  91  78  90 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            80  91  79  91 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           76  91  74  92 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...33/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
924 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
140130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
924 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF COAST BEACHES...
...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along the
west coast beaches of South Florida today.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the interior and west coast areas. The primary impacts
will be lightning strikes, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.

Temperature: Heat index values could reach 100 to 107 degrees across
portions of South Florida this afternoon, especially over the west
interior areas.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of waterspouts over the Gulf
waters this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor interior and
Gulf areas early next week. Primary concerns will be occasional
lightning strikes, gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain.

Heat index values in excess of 100 degrees are possible across South
Florida at least through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.