Storms formed rapidly over the Tucson metro and moved westward during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The storms intensified over the west side of Tucson causing flash flooding and damage to houses and power poles.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Storms formed rapidly over the Tucson metro and moved westward during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The storms intensified over the west side of Tucson causing flash flooding and damage to houses and power poles.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 1:31 PM MST, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to run warmer than average through Tuesday then cool several degrees thereafter. Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Sunday, mainly south of Tucson and over the White Mountains. Only Isolated storms are expected Monday through Tuesday then an increase in storm coverage should occur later in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Convection already ongoing over SE Cochise county and Santa Cruz county where MUCAPE values are currently running 600-800 J/kg this hour. Development is expected to continue through the afternoon across the southern part of the forecast area with storms drifting to the west. The White Mountains just northwest of our forecast area boundary have already gotten into the action and would expect that to increase and back over our area. Random development should occur here and there over and downwind of some of the other mountains around the area into the evening hours. The primary concern with the storms is strong outflow winds given the atmospheric profile we have. A similar evolution of storm development is expected Sunday although that is partially dependent on what happens this evening which can affect the environment tomorrow. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal by a few degrees with 100+ high temperatures fairly common. Monday and Tuesday the upper level high will be forced south down over the area by a trough passing over the top of the ridge. This will suppress convection over the area by limiting the moisture feed and also warming the mid-levels of the atmosphere making it less favorable for storms. Therefore storms will be rather isolated and high temperatures will be elevated, running 5-8 degrees warmer than average. Wednesday onward the flow is expected to transition to one more favorable for moisture transport into the region from the south which will result in an upswing in the amount of convection expected across the area as well as the precipitation potential of individual storms. With the deeper moisture you also increase the chance for nocturnal storms as they can develop later into the night off of previous outflows. The other side benefit will be a reduction in the high temperatures overall each afternoon Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z. SCT -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS southwest to its southeast. Brief gusts of 40-45 kts possible vicinity stronger TSRA. KOLS terminal will likely be directly impacted by TSRA through 14/23Z. BLDU may also reduce VSBYS down to 1-3 SM. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cloud decks generally at 8k-14k ft MSL which will clear out overnight. Surface wind generally less than 12 kts thru the forecast period. There will be some afternoon and early evening gusts to around 20 kts. Identical weather will repeat tomorrow starting around 14/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...With upper level high pressure remaining anchored near the Four Corners and moisture in place, expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend. Today, the primary activity will be across Santa Cruz county, southern Pima county and the White mountains. A slight downturn in activity is expected early next week before favorable conditions return mid to late next week. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 mph into next week, outside of any gusty outflow winds. Strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds to 45-50 mph are possible with any thunderstorms that do develop. Minimum humidity will generally be above 15 pct. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && PUBLIC...Cerniglia AVIATION....Pawlak FIRE WEATHER...Pawlak Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019
AZZ503-507-513-132145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
203 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...
At 202 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patagonia Lake State Park, or 13 miles east of Tubac, moving west at
15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm and brief
heavy rains.
Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Tubac, Rio Rico, Patagonia, Sonoita, Nogales International
Airport and Patagonia Lake State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3167 11064 3149 11056 3137 11089 3149 11103
3171 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 089DEG 17KT 3156 11083
CernigliaSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
309 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019
AZZ503-504-513-132245-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
309 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND WESTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MST...
At 309 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Rio Rico, or 10 miles south of Tubac, moving west
at 10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tubac, Rio Rico, Arivaca, Tumacacori, Amado, Pena Blanca Lake,
Arivaca Lake, Ruby and Arivaca Junction.
LAT...LON 3145 11143 3183 11130 3174 11089 3133 11100
3133 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 106DEG 8KT 3146 11109
RHSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 416 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019 AZZ504-514-140000- Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail- 416 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MST... At 414 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, moving west at 10 mph. This storm will move through the northern portions of the Tucson metro over the next 45 minutes with brief heavy downpours possible. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Casas Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, Tanque Verde, South Tucson, Tortolita, Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven, Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, Catalina State Park, Catalina Foothills and Seven Falls. LAT...LON 3246 11076 3225 11066 3216 11103 3242 11113 TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 072DEG 10KT 3233 11080 Carpenter
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:04 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Small tree limbs and power lines were downed in the vicinity of Grant and Stone. The limbs and lines also knocked down some fencing. Wind-driven small hail damaged a house's skylights and shade structure near Speedway and Greasewood.
Lightning ignited a palm tree near Fort Lowell and Alvernon. The burning fronds spread to a vehicle and apartment building causing additional damage.
Multiple swift water rescues were performed on the west side of Tucson. Locations included Airport Wash near 6th and Bilby, near 36th St. and Mission Rd, I-10 and Prince, San Juan Wash at La Cholla and King Ave.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 842744, 843426, 842742.