A strong cold front moved through the region into the morning of February 2nd. The storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the region causing minor roadway flooding and downing trees.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MTR wrote it up.
A strong cold front moved through the region into the morning of February 2nd. The storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the region causing minor roadway flooding and downing trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 1, 10:14 PM PST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1014 PM PST Fri Feb 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Rain will spread over the region and increase in
intensity overnight in advance of a powerful cold front. Damaging
winds and heavy rainfall will occur as the front passes through
the Bay Area and Central Coast later tonight and early Saturday
morning. After a brief lull midday Saturday, showers and
thunderstorms, along with gusty winds, will redevelop across the
region late Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers will linger on
Sunday but with dry breaks. Another front will bring more showers
Sunday night into Monday. A final cold system will produce more
shower activity Monday night into Tuesday and could lower snow
levels to less than 2000 feet. Dry weather is forecast Wednesday
through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 9:25 PM PST Friday...GOES IR satellite
imagery shows a deepening cyclone about 300 miles WNW of San
Francisco, and an associated strong cold front slowly approaching
the coast. Rainfall across our area has thus far been light, with
the strongest forcing still offshore. Southeast winds have been
gradually increasing since mid afternoon, especially over the
coastal waters where gusts close to 50 mph are currently being
observed at coastal buoys. Winds in the hills have also been
increasing with gusts of between 35 and 55 mph currently occuring
on higher peaks. Southeast winds will increase through the night
as the surface low continues to deepen offshore and the cold front
approaches. Based on the latest local WRF, winds will be
strongest between about 1 am and 6 am. Winds will subside after
frontal passage which is expected to occur sometime around
sunrise. However, the surface low will still be offshore after
frontal passage, and so gusty southerly winds will persist
through Saturday. In fact, winds will likely increase once again
late Saturday afternoon and early evening as the surface low
finally approaches the coast near San Francisco. Winds later on
Saturday are expected to be strongest across the southern half of
our forecast area. The High Wind Warning for our entire forecast
area is in effect until 10 am Saturday, but it's likely the
warning will either need to be extended through the evening hours,
or converted to a Wind Advisory. Winds are expected to finally
subside late Saturday night as the surface low moves inland and
fills.
Latest NAM and HRRR models show rain rates increasing after
midnight and becoming heavy for a few hours as the front moves
through between about 3 am and 7 am. Rain rates during this time
could be as high as 1 inch per hour. These rain rates will likely
be sufficient to overwhelm storm drains and result in urban
flooding in low lying areas. Small streams and creeks will
experience rapid rises and may reach or exceed bankfull by
Saturday morning. Also, flash flooding or debris flows are
possible across wildfire burns scars. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect through Saturday morning.
Precipitation will taper off after frontal passage Saturday
morning, with just scattered showers expected through mid
afternoon. Showers will then become more widespread and increase
in intensity late Saturday afternoon and evening as the surface
low approaches the coast and low level convergence ramps up. The
airmass will also become more unstable during this time and we
could see isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers are expected from
late Saturday night through Sunday, with some dry breaks. Showers
are expected to once again become more widespread Sunday night as
a shortwave trough swings through.
The final round of precipitation will occur from Monday through Tuesday
as a cold system drops in from the north. The airmass with this
system will be cold as it will originate over British Columbia.
Thus, snow levels could drop as low as 2000 feet by late Monday
night.
Longer range models indicate dry, but cool, weather during the
second half of next week, but also hint at more active weather
thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 10:10 PM PST Friday...For 06Z TAFs. Wet and
windy weather will prevail as a powerful weather system strengthen
off the coast. Rain will continue to impact all area terminals as
the system approaches with cigs gradually lowering to MVFR
overnight. In addition to the ceilings, strong southerly winds
will develop and impact virtually all terminals with the potential
for low level wind shear. The heaviest rain will coincide with
the frontal passage, which is expected to occur sometime after
12-15Z Saturday.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR cigs with SCT/BKN deck around 4,000-5,000
ft will gradually lower to 2,500-3,500 ft overnight. Rain expected
overnight as the main frontal band approaches and subsequently
moves inland. Increasingly strong southerly winds are forecast
through the night and into Saturday morning. Likely will see
Airport Weather Warning Criteria at the terminal, but there
remains some uncertainty as to exactly when the 35 kt threshold
will be hit. Low level wind shear will also be a concern with this
storm.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR cigs will prevail through this
evening before cigs lower to MVFR levels overnight and into
Saturday. Very strong southerly winds are expected to impact both
SNS and MRY with the potential for 45+ kt wind gusts very
possible by the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...as of 9:05 PM PST Friday...A powerful low pressure
system will impact the coastal waters tonight into Saturday as
the center of the low approaches the west coast. The low will
track east across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night
brining widespread gale force winds and frequent storm force
winds to coastal waters from Point Arena to Point Piedras Blancas
tonight and Saturday. A brief lull in the winds is expected for
several hours on Saturday before increasing again with storm force
gusts returning south of Pigeon Point. The fresh, wind generated
waves waves will create dangerous sea conditions for mariners.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...High Wind Warning...All areas through 10 am Saturday
Flash Flood Watch...7 pm Fri through Sat morning
SRW...Pt Reyes to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SRW...Pt Arena to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SRW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SRW...Mry Bay from 3 AM
GLW...Mry Bay until 3 AM
GLW...SF Bay
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1130 PM PST FRI FEB 1 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FREMONT 37.53N 121.98W
02/01/2019 M36 MPH ALAMEDA CA MESONET
MESONET STATION E5830, FREMONT.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 strong wind, 3 high wind, 3 flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station Highlands Peak measured wind gust of 58 mph.
Mesonet station 19 miles NW of Coalinga.
Roadway flooding at 53 San Clemente Dr.
Tree down blocking EB lane of Carmel Valley Rd.
Numerous trees blocking roadway, closure required SR 1 at Carpenter Rd between Ocean.
Tree down with wires at Midwood Ln and Don Ln.
Tree down at SR 1 and Highland Dr.
Tree down at Capitola Rd and 7th Ave, tree across both lanes.
Roadway flooding at I880 N and Alvarado Blvd off ramp. Water pooling in 1-2 lanes.
Roadway flooding at NB 880 at Broadway.
Downed tree blocking roadway.
Large tree down in roadway.
Slide covering part of 236 roadway near mile marker 7.35.
Downed medium sized tree behind NWS facility.
Tree down along 101.
Los Gatos RAWS recorded wind gusts around 50 mph during this time period peaking at 69 mph.
Bigrock rigde reported gusts around 45 mph peaking at 54 mph.
Spring Valley RAWS reported gusts of 46 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 799959, 799960, 799956, 799961, 799962, 799968, 799969, 799970, 799957, 799958, 799971, 799972, 799974, 799973, 799975, 800420, 799976, 799978, 799977.