Strong southerly flow over the Alaska Range produced gusty Chinook winds in the passes of the eastern Alaska Range on the 29th of September 2019.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
Strong southerly flow over the Alaska Range produced gusty Chinook winds in the passes of the eastern Alaska Range on the 29th of September 2019.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 1:42 PM AKST, 10 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 242 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019 .DISCUSSION... A front associated with a low moving north along the west coast of Alaska will bring precipitation (mostly rain) to much of the west coast and the Interior tonight into Sunday. This system will also bring strong winds to the Alaska Range. This system will be our main forecast challenge in the short term. The models initialize well and are in generally good agreement with the overall synoptic scale pattern out through early Sunday. After Sunday morning, the models start to diverge on the exact timing of the surface surface low that is expected to move north along the west coast and then will track east along the Arctic Coast. The NAM move the low to near Utqiagvik much quicker than the other models and stalls it there longer. The scenario depicted by the NAM would bring higher water levels and a more prolonged period of elevated surf to the Chukchi Sea Coast than the other models. Given that the NAM is currently the outlier, we opted to lean more to the GFS solution for the moment. Central and Eastern Interior: A front will bring spread precipitation into the Interior tonight and Sunday. Snow levels will rise to the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range as the precipitation moves in, so for most locations this will primarily a rain event. In areas north of the Yukon River the precipitation will likely start off as snow, but will transition to rain. North of Coldfoot, the snow will be the dominant precipitation type with some spots seeing an inch or so of accumulation. Areas from Fairbanks west will likely see over a half of an inch of rainfall with this system, with some spots seeing up to an inch. Precipitation with this system will taper off early Monday for areas from Fairbanks west, while some rainfall will linger into Monday afternoon east of Fairbanks. The pressure gradient will tighten up across the Alaska Range this evening as a surface low moves north along the west coast As the pressure gradient tightens up strong, southerly gap winds will develop in the Alaska Range. Wind gusts near passes are expected to be in the 50 to 60 mph range. Wind advisories have been posted for zones 225 and 226 beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday evening in anticipation of the gap winds. In addition, the setup aloft is favorable for stronger southwesterly winds along the Alaska Highway from just west of Tok to Dot Lake. We opted to issue a Wind Advisory for zone 224 for gusts up to 40 mph in this area. A system in the Gulf of Alaska will spread precipitation into the Interior from the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Most of the precipitation will be confined to areas southeast of a line from Fort Yukon to Lake Minchumina. Snow levels are expected to fall below 1,000 feet during this event. West Coast and Western Interior: An area of low pressure tracking to the north along the west coast will spread rainfall over the area tonight. By the time the system moves out of the area on Sunday evening, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected with this system. Gusty westerly winds are expected around the back side of the low Monday evening. This will primarily affect Norton Sound, where gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible (primarily south of Koyuk). Some showers will linger across the area on Monday. A ridge will build over the area on Tuesday will limit the chances for precipitation. A front will spread precipitation to the west coast on Wednesday, with showers lingering into Thursday. There are more substantial chances for precipitation on Friday as a low moves from the Bering Sea, over the Yukon Delta and up the Yukon Valley. This system will bring gusty westerly winds to the coast, although there is disagreement on the exact placement and timing of the strongest winds at the moment. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with southerly winds over most areas continuing into tonight will keep coastal fog offshore. Winds will shift to the east-southeast over much of the area tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves north and east along the Chukchi Sea coast. Southerly gap winds gusting to 45 mph will also develop Saturday night through eastern Brooks Range passes and will impact the Dalton Highway north of Atigun Pass. The approaching low will deepen just off the coast of Utqiagvik on Sunday night and sweep east on Monday. This will spread rainfall across the area Sunday into Monday, mixing with snow on the backside of the low as cooler air sweeps in some spots in the Brooks Range may see an inch or so of accumulation. Strong onshore winds of 25 to 45 mph are likely to areas from Wainwright eastward on Monday. There is still some uncertainty with the track of this low at the moment, with the NAM keeping the low in place near Utqiagvik while the other operational models move the low to the east quicker. We opted to go more for the GFS solution for the track of the low; however, we will have to continue to monitor this area. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...An area of low pressure moving east along the Arctic Coast will bring northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 mph to the Chukchi Sea Coast on Monday. These winds will cause elevated sea levels and increased wave action. The sea level is expected increase one to two feet above the normal high tide line from Utqiagvik west during the day on Monday. There is still a lot of spread with the models on the exact track and timing of the low, the the GFS and the ECMWF moving the low much quicker eastward than the NAM. A low that will move reach the Yukon west coast of Alaska on Friday has the potential to bring elevated water levels and surf to parts of the west coast; however, at the moment the exact details are uncertain at the moment. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers and streams are running well below bankfull across the forecast area. The 0.5 to 1.50 inches of rain forecast this weekend in portions of the Interior will result in rises on some drainages, but flooding is not expected. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225. && SEP 19
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019 AKZ212-292100- Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills- Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, and Shaktoolik 925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...Elevated Surf at Shaktoolik and Unalakleet Sunday... Surf is expected to rise above normal Sunday afternoon at Shaktoolik and Unalakleet, and to remain elevated through early Monday morning. Surf will rise to the top of the beach and cause minor beach erosion, but no flooding is expected. A storm now over Bristol Bay is expected to move over Norton Sound on Sunday and then deepen. This storm is expected to cause southwest winds of 20 to 30 kt over Eastern Norton Sound between Sunday afternoon and early Monday. These winds will only be blowing over a 80 mile fetch of water so this will only cause sea level to rise about 2 ft above normal, and cause waves to 8 feet, which will cause the elevated surf. The winds and waves will decrease Monday morning. AKZ207-209-210-292100- Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley- Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula- Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue, Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor 925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...Elevated Surf Sunday Night through Monday... Surf is expected to rise above normal about midnight Sunday night at Shishmaref, Deering and Kotzebue, and to remain elevated through about noon Monday. Surf will rise to the top of the beach and cause minor beach erosion, but no flooding is expected. A storm now over Bristol Bay is expected to move over Norton Sound on Sunday and deepen, then move north of Kotzebue late Sunday night. This storm is expected to cause northwest winds of 20 to 25 kt over the southern Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound between midnight Sunday night and noon Monday. These winds will only be blowing over a 100 mile fetch of water so this will only cause sea level to rise about 2 ft above normal, and cause waves to 6 feet, which will cause the elevated surf. The winds and waves will decrease Monday afternoon. JB
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong southerly Chinook winds were observed through passes along the north side of the Alaska Range. The The U.S. Army Mesonet station Texas Condo near the Richardson Highway on Fort Greely reported a wind gust of 61 kts (70 mph).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848529.