Scattered thunderstorms developed through the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moved through the Ohio Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed through the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moved through the Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 3:12 PM EST, 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 412 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance moving east across the region will produce scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm, rapidly decreasing this evening. Strong high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley, leading to dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through mid week. The next cold frontal passage and threat for significant rainfall will likely occur on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Area of showers over the northern half of the CWA will move east this afternoon and early evening. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility through nightfall. With warm advection expected overnight, cloud cover will be on the decrease from south to north overnight, and daytime high based cu will also lessen with the setting sun. GFS is an outlying solution that has these showers re-developing later overnight as another shortwave tops the building ridge to the west and races southeast. Have some low chances of showers with this feature in the eastern half of the CWA but feel that this may need to be increased later tonight if some other models come into line by indicating a stronger upper level shortwave. As of now, the hedge to some chance appears to be the better course of action, as numerous models are dry over the CWA tonight. Southerly flow will keep upper 60s dewpoints in the region, limiting nighttime temperature falls and keeping lows in the mid 60s north, upper 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Some few showers may linger early Monday morning as upper level ridging tops a surface high pressure system and strengthens over the region. Southerly flow will continue to funnel in moist air to the region, keeping an unusually hot and humid airmass over us for another day. Highs will reach to within a few degrees of 90, and lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence continues for a period of near-record heat early this week followed by a cooling trend toward near-normal October temperatures by late week into the start of the weekend. The extended period begins on Tuesday at the relative peak of the warm spell, with 1000-500mb thickness values at their maximum values across the CWA Tuesday afternoon. The strongly meridional upper level flow pattern continues with the ridge axis from Memphis north to the eastern Great Lakes and the longwave trof extending south from the north-central MT down to central CA. Between the two will be the dividing line between August- like temperatures in the Ohio Valley from the autumn- like temperatures in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Wednesday looks to be very similar to Tuesday, with consensus showing generally dry conditions in dry southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Thursday remains the transition day across the CWA, with relief for the heat on the way through the day as the cold front slides toward the south. While the GFS and its ensemble members continue several degrees cooler in general, confidence on the timing of frontal passage is beginning to increase for an afternoon arrival for most areas, potentially pushing toward evening in the far south. An interesting note from today's run is GEFS' drier trend with fropa, bringing it more in line with the other models. In fact, the ensemble mean shows a strong possibility of less than a tenth of rainfall on Thursday. While clouds will linger into Friday morning in a cold air advection pattern, the model consensus returns the CWA to dry conditions under surface high pressure through Friday into Saturday night. The coolest night should be Friday night under light winds and clearing skies. Could be a few degrees cooler than forecast, depending on how early the skies clear. Return flow around the high brings an introduction of low chance light precip on Sunday under warm air advection. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR and low end MVFR cigs have lifted with the dissipating cold front and some warmer air beginning to mix into the region. This southerly flow will continue tonight but surface winds will remain relatively light - under 5kt, and pick back up during the day on Monday but remain under 10kt. High based cloud cover will remain possible through the period, punctuated by some higher end daytime cumulus in the 5-7kft range both this afternoon and Monday. Do not expect any showers to affect the TAF sites, but the higher threat will lie at the CMH/LCK area and some passing showers will remain a possibility through much of the forecast. While it is possible, showers have been left out of the forecast and it will be more of a reactionary amendment that comes across today and this evening. That is unless the convective allowing models come more in sync with others showing rainfall tonight/early Monday, leading to a more confident forecast. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .CLIMATE... Anomalously strong mid level ridge will persist over the area Monday through Wednesday, leading to temperatures approaching records at Dayton, Cincinnati, and Columbus. Near-record highs are also possible Thursday at Cincinnati. Records... SEP 30th CVG 92...year 1941 & 1953 DAY 94...year 1897 CMH 92...year 1953 OCT 1st CVG 88...year 1897, 1919 & 1927 DAY 93...year 1897 CMH 89...year 1952 OCT 2nd CVG 90...year 1919 DAY 90...year 1898 & 1900 CMH 88...year 1919 OCT 3rd CVG 89...year 1910 & 1919 DAY 93...year 1900 CMH 89...year 1898 & 1953 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Hogue AVIATION...Franks CLIMATE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 312 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-301915- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan- Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking- Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking- 312 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-301915- Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone- Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis- Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike- Scioto- 312 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. This, combined with the humidity, will result in afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 404 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 OHZ051>053-292030- Champaign OH-Clark OH-Miami OH- 404 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN... NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT... At 403 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near West Milton, moving east at 35 mph. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... Winds to 50 mph... Locations impacted include... Troy, Tipp City, New Carlisle, West Milton, Brown, Union, Christiansburg, North Hampton, Casstown, Ludlow Falls, Haven View, State Route 41 at State Route 235, Grayson, Dialton and Ginghamsburg. This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 66 and 74. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. LAT...LON 4010 8395 3993 8390 3993 8432 4002 8436 TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 265DEG 32KT 3998 8427
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:34 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A small tree fell onto Musselman Road.
A few trees and power lines were downed.
A few trees were downed onto some houses and a few power lines were also downed.
Numerous trees were downed and a barn was damaged along State Route 188 near Winchester Road.
Numerous trees and power poles were downed near Hargus Lake.
A large branch fell onto a house along Ringgold Southern Road.
A tree was downed on Peters Road near State Route 674.
Numerous trees were downed along Thompson Ridge Road near State Route 374.
Numerous trees were downed throughout Starr Township.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848239, 848241, 848242, 848243, 848244, 848245, 848246, 848247, 848240.