Damaging Winds and High Wind in Texas, September 29 to 30, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.AVIATION...
Currently the region is clear of convection, but there are some
showers and thunderstorms across the Permian Basin that are
making their way northeastward towards the South Plains. It still
remains unknown if these storms will move into the South Plains
and affect any of the terminals, particularly LBB and PVW. For now
convection will be left out of this TAF cycle and amended as
needed. If storms do affect a terminal the main threats will be
strong winds over 50 kts and heavy downpours. A MVFR stratus layer
is expected again after midnight at the terminals. The chance
exists that CIGs could lower to IFR by sunrise. VFR CIGs should
return to the terminals by 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The western CONUS trough driving our synoptic pattern continues
to work south, while bringing snow to the northern Rockies. The
leading edge of the trough is approaching the Four Corners region
this afternoon as a large moisture plume from Tropical Storm
Narda has begun pushing north through Old Mexico. Southwest H50
flow will persist through midweek over our region between the
advancing trough and the amplified ridge spread across the SE
CONUS. As the ridge begins to flatten under the trough ejecting
into the Central Plains we may see several rounds of heavy
rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday as the surface positions
itself over West Texas. Overall, our counties along the TX/NM line
are likely to get the highest rainfall amounts.

Short-term guidance has a more consistent signal for strong to
marginally severe storms moving northeast out of eastern New
Mexico into our CWA later this evening into the overnight hours
under weakly divergent flow aloft, surface based CAPE above
1000J/Kg and bulk shear around 30kts. The biggest threats would be
quarter size hail, and strong wind gusts up to 70 MPH. The axis of
the moisture plume shifts west for most of the day tomorrow, as
portions of eastern New Mexico will see periods of heavy rainfall
through the day tomorrow. The trough begins to make its pass in
proximity to our region for Tuesday through Thursday. There won't
be as much instability when the system passes over, but moisture
up and down the column due to the moisture fetch from Narda will
be over head, and provide several rounds of heavy rainfall through
the middle week. Even after the surface front begins to become
more diffuse and lift, the rain chances don't end for Friday and
into the weekend as another trough approaches from the west and
another cold front arrives for the end of next weekend.
Temperatures drop sharply on Thursday with the cold front, highs
will be in the 60s across the souther Texas Panhandle and low to
mid 70s in the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

TXZ021>044-300745-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
244 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight,
favoring the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains.
A few of these storms could become strong to severe. The most
intense activity will be capable of producing hail to quarter
size, wind gusts to 70 mph and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances will continue through much of upcoming
week. The greatest threat with this activity will be heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, though a few of these storms
could become strong to briefly severe.