Tornadoes in Alabama, November 27, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0345 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/

Through Tonight.

Currently watching the pre-frontal trough slide through the area
ahead of the cold front that is to west. The strongest activity is
within the trough as temperatures have risen to the lower 70s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s. Models have actually had a good handle
on the progression of the the system so far this morning. While we
have had an increase in surface based cape over the west this
morning, we also have some surface based CIN that is helping keep
the storms somewhat under control. The storms are getting ready to
pass the I-65 corridor in the north and hover just south of the
I-20 corridor in the west. The best area of convergence and
possible development appears to be in the southwest, where the
best lift is in place. Going to remove the threat for severe
weather in the northwestern portion of the area, due to this.
Still will need the cold front to push through before the threat
for storms are done, but so far the best chances for the severe
again remain within the pre-frontal zone. Overall it has appeared
that the cold front has been trying to catch up with the trough
over the past few hours. Based on short range models, looks like
the front will remain just a few counties separated from the
trough but will help the trough advance east and then south as
the ridge of high pressure begins to move in behind the front.

Look for the bulk of the precipitation with the trough to be east
of the I-59 corridor at sunrise with the front beginning to enter
the NW. By 9 am the front itself should be approaching the I-59
corridor. So roughly a 3 hr window from the backside of the
trough to the passage of the front. By Noon the bulk of the action
will be near the I-85 corridor before pushing out by around 3 pm.
Look for highs to be right around Noon in the southeast. Highs
may actually be right at sunrise in the north, before dropping
through the morning with the cold air advection behind the front.
We could see a slight rebound in the north in the afternoon as the
sun tries to return, but temperatures should remain lower than
the highs this morning.

Tonight, look for general clearing as the drier air works into
the area. Winds should remain up, so fog development is not
anticipated at this time. Look for lows in the 30s to 40s
areawide.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0345 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/

Thursday through Tuesday.

An amplified pattern aloft will be in place through the end of the
week, with troughing in the west and ridging in the east. The main
ridge will be centered over the southeast. Several embedded
shortwaves within the southwest flow aloft will move through the
central CONUS. The ridge still appears to help steer any mid-
level moisture and associated precipitation with these waves
north of the area. Cooler temperatures are expected for
Thanksgiving Day to the north of the stalled front along the Gulf
Coast, with a warming trend for Friday as the front begins to lift
back to the north as a warm front.

The next system will impact Central Alabama late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night/Sunday morning. A strong surface low
will develop and occlude over the Northern Plains on Saturday.
The associated cold front will move through Central Alabama likely
during the late afternoon/evening and overnight hours Saturday
night. As has been typical lately and for this time of year,
favorable dynamics for severe storms will be present with 70kts of
mid-level westerlies, and a 45-50 kt LLJ (though it will be
somewhat veered). Thermodynamics/instability will remain the
question mark as usual, and appear marginal at this time. Will
continue the messaging of a low-end severe threat in the HWO for
late Saturday afternoon in the west and Saturday night across the
rest of the area. Cooler and dry weather will return Sunday or
Sunday night and continue through Monday due to an eastern CONUS
trough.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

The cold front is now about to enter TCL and will be at BHM/EET by
13z. Tried to time the front as best as possible over the next 5
to 7 hours. Worst conditions will be over the next 5 hours and
then improvements expected late afternoon. Winds will remain high
through 21z. Winds slack some tonight but remain near 5kts out of
the north.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue as a
frontal system passes through the region. Could see some
river/valley fog Friday morning as high pressure, cool
temperatures and light winds will be in place. The period of dry
conditions at the end of the week will be brief, with another
weather system expected over the weekend. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  36  59  40  64 /  90   0   0   0   0
Anniston    70  37  61  41  66 /  90   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  68  39  59  43  66 /  90   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  40  61  42  67 /  80   0   0   0   0
Calera      69  39  61  42  66 /  90   0   0   0   0
Auburn      71  43  63  44  67 /  90   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  75  43  65  44  70 / 100   0   0   0   0
Troy        75  44  66  43  71 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
530 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-281430-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
530 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe storms are possible across all of Central Alabama Saturday
night. This includes the potential for damaging winds and a brief
tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Saturday night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
440 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

ALZ023>025-034-271115-
Bibb AL-Jefferson AL-Shelby AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
440 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA...
SHELBY...NORTHERN BIBB AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515
AM CST...

At 440 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking showers with gusty winds
along a line extending from near Coaling to Mount Laurel. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Bessemer, Homewood,
Pelham, Mountain Brook, Trussville, Helena, Hueytown, Irondale,
Leeds, Calera, Fairfield, Chelsea, Montevallo, Columbiana,
Wilsonville and Center Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8760 3367 8666 3358 8655 3355 8654
      3354 8648 3350 8648 3350 8642 3347 8638
      3339 8638 3336 8634 3334 8637 3330 8636
      3327 8641 3328 8643 3326 8642 3323 8646
      3320 8646 3320 8649 3318 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 265DEG 41KT 3310 8738 3339 8660

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
820 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

ALZ049-271500-
Pike AL-
820 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY UNTIL
900 AM CST...

At 819 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy shower over
Goshen, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts around 40 to 45 mph will be possible with this heavy
shower

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Brundidge, Goshen, Antioch, Troy University, Mossy Grove and
Henderson.

LAT...LON 3166 8616 3166 8615 3179 8615 3179 8620
      3181 8620 3182 8619 3182 8588 3178 8582
      3172 8581 3167 8583 3164 8588 3164 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 273DEG 31KT 3171 8616

89^GSatterwhite