Heavy rain developed during the evening of July 31st, mainly in Albemarle and Orange Counties. Rainfall totals over four inches were observed, with numerous instances of flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Heavy rain developed during the evening of July 31st, mainly in Albemarle and Orange Counties. Rainfall totals over four inches were observed, with numerous instances of flooding. This rain continued into the morning hours of August 1st with additional flooding reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 8:25 PM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 925 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front across southern Virginia will move north of the area overnight. A cold front will gradually approach from the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday, then dissipate over the region Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers this evening appear to be associated with warm front lifting northward through central VA. As warm front lifts north into PA overnight, expecting that showers will cease with ceilings lowering again like they did last night. Will maintain high PoPs this evening and then taper off them overnight. Previous AFD... On Wednesday...any remnants of the warm front should be north of the region by early-morning...or the front will simply wash out. Clouds might take a while to scour out on Wednesday...maybe hanging tough in areas east of the Blue Ridge from about Culpeper/Fauquier counties northward through mid-day. Temperatures on Wed should be warmer as clouds will eventually break during the afternoon. SPC has placed much of the northern half of our CWA under a slight risk for Wed as 0-6km shear of 40-45 kts combines with instability/SBCAPE of 1200-1500 to produce potential for a few severe storm. Best potential with timing of the cold front approaching from the west would be after 19Z in the west and after 21Z East of the Blue Ridge. Some issues determining how it plays out storm-wise on Wednesday will be to what extent the cloud cover can last through mid-day, the anemic mid-level lapse rate, and just how unstable it can actually get. The 12Z HRFEv2 suggests highest potential for severe storms would be across the western half of the CWA between 18-21Z...and then there is uncertainty just how unstable it will be east of the Blue Ridge. Also will have to factor in the high PWAT values of nearly 2 inches that will be in place across the region on Wed, so there is potential for flash flooding as well, especially if convective cores can fire east of the BLue Ridge over areas that were dumped on last week. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Although the cold front to the west approaches the area on Wednesday, it really never crosses. Thus, Thursday and Thurs night will feature continued deep moisture over the region along with southerly low level winds. Hard to pinpoint where convection will fire on Thursday, but expect chances to be an even bet across the entire region. Shear doesn't look that great on Thurs (30-35 kt), but could be sufficient for some level of organized convection. still be enough for organized storms and a gusty wind threat...and heavy rainfall threat as well given the high moisture content. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Friday, a trough will still be located to our west. With high pressure locked in to our east at the surface, southerly flow will persist, and a moist airmass will remain in place. The moist airmass coupled with ascent ahead of the trough will lead to the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Moving into the weekend, model guidance suggests that the mid-upper level trough that will influence our weather for much of this week will finally break down. That will leave us in more of a zonal flow regime aloft. However, the guidance also indicates that ample low- level moisture will linger (precipitable water values around 1.7-2.0 inches) across the area, and that shortwaves will likely be embedded within the zonal flow aloft. This will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Chances for showers and storms should lessen by Monday, but will still be non-zero with a warm and humid airmass in place. Temperatures throughout the long term period should gradually modify from below normal on Friday to near or slightly above normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHRA and perhaps an isolated TSRA this evening will be near CHO closest to a northward advancing warm front. Elsewhere, showers a bit too scattered and thunderstorms a bit too uncertain for a prevailing mention of either. Expect some BR to produce IFR conditions in CHO and IAD overnight... Wed-Thu...MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings and visibility in scattered showers and thunderstorms...but much of the time VFR conditions will prevail. S Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible in scattered showers/thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Intermittent sub-VFR conditions could be possible with any thunderstorms during the Friday through Monday time period. The highest coverage of storms should be on Friday. && .MARINE... SCA in effect this evening through Wednesday, and will likely need to be extended for at least parts of the waters into Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms increasingly likely late Wednesday and again on Thursday, some of which could contain marine warning-level gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon Friday through Monday, with the highest coverage of storms occurring on Friday. Marginal SCA winds could also be possible in southerly flow on Friday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543. && SYNOPSIS...SMZ NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...SMZ LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...SMZ MARINE...SMZ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-011445- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Showers and thunderstorms may result in locally damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of flooding Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-011445- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Showers and thunderstorms may result in locally damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of flooding Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. HTS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
822 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0819 PM FLOOD 1 W CHARLOTTESVILLE 38.04N 78.50W
07/31/2018 ALBEMARLE VA 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER REPORTED ON UNIVERSITY AVE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1801296
JMGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0818 PM FLOOD 1 S ALONZAVILLE 38.91N 78.55W
07/31/2018 SHENANDOAH VA 911 CALL CENTER
HIGH WATER REPORTED ON SCOTTSVILLE ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1801297
JMGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0844 PM FLOOD 2 SW PUMPKIN CENTER 39.60N 78.59W
07/31/2018 ALLEGANY MD 911 CALL CENTER
PARTS OF BEAR HILL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1801298
JMGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM FLOOD 2 SSE PUMPKIN CENTER 39.59N 78.55W
07/31/2018 ALLEGANY MD 911 CALL CENTER
PARTS OF TOWN CREEK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1801299
JMGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two people were rescued from a car floating in floodwaters near the intersection of Old Ivy Road and Ivy Road.
Floodwaters were covering the road near the entrance to the Farmington Heights neighborhood. This forced local residents to be told to shelter in place since they could not leave the area.
Another vehicle was reported stuck in floodwaters near the intersection of Old Ivy Road and Ivy Road.
Proffit Road flooded and closed near Stony Point Road.
Campbell Road closed due to flooding between Paddock Wood Road and Louisa Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 774380, 774381, 774382, 774383, 774386.