A moist and unstable atmosphere in place across New Mexico produced scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state on July 31st. High pressure centered over eastern Arizona allowed steering flow to push storms southward from the higher terrain of northern New Mexico into nearby valleys through the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A moist and unstable atmosphere in place across New Mexico produced scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state on July 31st. High pressure centered over eastern Arizona allowed steering flow to push storms southward from the higher terrain of northern New Mexico into nearby valleys through the evening. A strong thunderstorm that developed near Chama around 3 pm moved south and became severe as it reached the Youngsville area where two inch hail was reported. This thunderstorm remained severe as it moved across the Jemez Mountains. Hail up to the size of golf balls with torrential rainfall in the Jemez Valley produced widespread hail damage and flash flooding. This storm continued southward into the Rio Rancho area with quarter size hail. Severe thunderstorms also produced large hail and heavy rainfall around Mineral Hill, Rociada, and Carrizozo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 1:28 PM MST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 228 PM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The active weather pattern will continue through the forecast period with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day and night, mostly in the afternoons and evenings. High pressure remains near the UT/NV/AZ borders. It will drift southeast into AZ Wednesday and approach the AZ/NM border Thursday. It quickly reforms off the CA coast Friday, remains there Saturday then it's centered over NM Sunday. The high will strengthen early next week while remaining close to NM. A couple of short wave troughs will slip into northeast NM the remainder of this week, one Wednesday evening and another Friday evening. These will provide a fresh batch of deep moisture to much of the state. The second half of the week will be very active with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The storm activity will diminish some over the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A slow start to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with pretty much just the Southwest Mountains getting any decent lightning. Things will pick up late this afternoon and this evening with isolated showers and storms everywhere but the far northwest, closest to the upper high pressure area. A few storms could become severe in central NM. The convection will be slow to diminish after midnight tonight. High pressure aloft will drift into AZ Wednesday while a short wave trough approaches from the northwest. This trough will drop into eastern NM and bring enhanced moisture and convection Wednesday night, with western areas active as well. Western and central areas will be favored for storms Thursday into Thursday night, while the east stabilizes some. The nearby high pressure area will quickly retreat off the west coast Friday as the next short wave trough moves in from the northwest. Late Friday and Friday night will again be very active with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. The upper high will move back over NM this coming weekend and strengthen nearby early next week. This will result in less convection, with scattered storms over the mountains and isolated over the valleys and eastern highlands. The eastern plains will see less storm coverage over the weekend and may be completely dry early next week. CHJ && .FIRE WEATHER... Deep layer moisture will continue increasing over New Mexico through the remainder of this week. High pressure over eastern Arizona will drift eastward and weaken through late week. This will set the stage for north to south steering flow to become very light and elevate the flash flood threat. Friday to Saturday currently appears to be the most active period with near record precipitable water values. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal in this pattern for the entire area. Min humidity will range from near 20% across western NM to near 40% along the TX border. Overnight max humidity recoveries will be good to excellent areawide. An overall decrease in the coverage of showers and storms is possible by Sunday as upper level high pressure strengthens over NM. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Moist and unstable conditions developing today will lead to another crop of scattered SHRA/TSRA. Storm motion will be toward the south around 10-15 kt. SPC has outlined much of central and western NM for a marginal risk of severe storms thru the evening. The focus will initially form along the central mt chain then spread into nearby highlands and valleys aft 21Z. Greatest potential for impacts will be within the area from KLVS to KSAF southward to KABQ and KAEG. A direct hit will be capable of strong outflow winds, hail, frequent CG lightning, and MVFR/IFR vsbys from heavy rainfall. Model guidance is indicating SHRA/TSRA may linger the entire night over central and eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 96 65 95 / 5 5 10 5 Dulce........................... 53 91 53 91 / 20 50 30 20 Cuba............................ 57 89 57 88 / 30 30 30 20 Gallup.......................... 58 93 60 91 / 10 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 57 85 / 30 30 30 50 Grants.......................... 58 89 59 88 / 20 20 30 40 Quemado......................... 58 86 59 84 / 30 30 50 30 Glenwood........................ 65 91 66 90 / 40 30 50 50 Chama........................... 50 83 49 83 / 40 60 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 84 60 84 / 60 40 40 30 Pecos........................... 57 81 56 80 / 50 40 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 82 50 81 / 30 30 40 30 Red River....................... 46 73 46 73 / 40 50 50 30 Angel Fire...................... 42 78 42 77 / 50 60 50 60 Taos............................ 50 85 50 86 / 30 30 30 30 Mora............................ 52 80 50 80 / 50 50 50 40 Espanola........................ 59 89 59 90 / 40 20 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 59 83 / 40 20 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 88 58 87 / 40 20 50 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 91 64 90 / 40 20 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 91 68 91 / 30 20 40 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 65 93 / 30 10 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 93 66 92 / 30 10 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 60 93 64 93 / 30 10 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 65 93 66 92 / 30 10 30 20 Socorro......................... 66 93 67 93 / 30 20 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 61 84 / 50 30 40 20 Tijeras......................... 57 88 57 87 / 50 30 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 89 54 88 / 30 20 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 85 56 84 / 40 20 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 58 87 58 87 / 30 30 40 30 Carrizozo....................... 63 87 63 86 / 30 20 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 82 57 81 / 40 20 70 40 Capulin......................... 54 82 53 83 / 20 30 50 20 Raton........................... 53 86 52 87 / 20 30 40 20 Springer........................ 55 88 54 88 / 30 30 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 82 54 81 / 50 30 50 30 Clayton......................... 57 88 59 87 / 10 10 60 10 Roy............................. 59 86 58 84 / 30 20 50 20 Conchas......................... 64 95 64 91 / 20 20 60 10 Santa Rosa...................... 62 92 63 88 / 30 20 60 10 Tucumcari....................... 64 96 64 92 / 20 10 60 10 Clovis.......................... 61 90 62 88 / 10 10 60 10 Portales........................ 62 91 63 91 / 10 10 60 10 Fort Sumner..................... 66 93 66 91 / 20 10 60 10 Roswell......................... 70 96 69 95 / 20 10 60 20 Picacho......................... 64 86 64 86 / 30 30 60 20 Elk............................. 60 83 61 83 / 30 40 60 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 40
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018 NMZ501>540-011130- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the northern and western mountains early this afternoon, moving south over the lower elevations during late afternoon and early evening.. A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening with locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Storm coverage is forecast to increase Wednesday and remain active Thursday through the weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible in eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally, localized flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars, is possible each afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 33
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 332 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 NMZ510-312200- San Juan Mountains- 332 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM MDT... At 332 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16 miles east of Chama, moving southeast at 30 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Rio Arriba County. Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3687 10641 3695 10632 3686 10599 3667 10617 TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 304DEG 25KT 3688 10628 28
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 340 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 NMZ513-515-312215- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- 340 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TAOS AND WEST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT... At 340 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles northeast of Elizabethtown, or 24 miles east of Questa, moving south at 20 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Eagle Nest, Ute Park and Elizabethtown. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3686 10524 3682 10502 3652 10506 3659 10538 TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 013DEG 15KT 3678 10516 28
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 422 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 NMZ526-539-312245- Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains- 422 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MDT... At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Lincoln State Monument, or 23 miles northeast of Ruidoso, moving southeast at 20 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Lincoln, Hondo, Arabela, Lincoln State Monument and San Patricio. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3354 10553 3369 10541 3355 10508 3333 10527 TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 304DEG 16KT 3358 10541 28
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
433 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018
NMZ510-312300-
San Juan Mountains-
433 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...
At 432 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Canjilon, or 16 miles southeast of Tierra Amarilla, moving south at
20 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Canjilon and Cebolla.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 10629 3635 10624 3636 10651 3638 10650
3636 10653 3636 10662 3661 10651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 001DEG 17KT 3649 10640
40Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 438 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 NMZ525-312315- Upper Tularosa Valley- 438 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM MDT... At 438 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Carrizozo, moving southeast at 10 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Carrizozo. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3372 10608 3379 10598 3369 10583 3358 10599 TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 319DEG 10KT 3372 10599 28
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:43 UTC.
13 hail, 1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail up to two inches in diameter fell in Youngsville. The extent damage is unknown.
Hail up to the size of pennies reported a mile west-northwest of Youngsville.
Hail up to the size of golf balls reported near Canones.
Hail up to the size of quarters reported in Buena Vista.
Heavy amounts of hail between the size of nickels and quarters impacted Carrizozo. Several recreational vehicles suffered damage to sky lights. Damage amounts are estimated.
Lots of hail up to the size of quarters fell in the area around La Cueva Lodge.
Hail up to the size of quarters in Rociada.
Hail up to the size of quarters near Mineral Hill.
Torrential rainfall and hail along the SR-4 corridor produced flash flooding. The highway was closed.
Hail up to the size of golf balls slammed the area around Jemez Springs and Jemez Pueblo. Flash flooding closed SR-4. Significant damage occurred to vehicles, windows, and crops. Damage amounts are estimated for dozens of vehicles.
Hail up to the size of quarters at Zia Pueblo.
Hail up to the size of quarters at King and Unser.
Hail up to the size of quarters at Idalia and Unser.
Hail up to the size of nickels at Northern and Rockaway.
Peak wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph on the White Sands Missile Range.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 762834, 762832, 762833, 762835, 762836, 762837, 762838, 762839, 762857, 762840, 762859, 762842, 762844, 762846, 762849.