0 over the area. Upper forcing in the form of divergence aloft, within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak that extended down the Mid-Atlantic States, combined with a south-north ribbon of elongated vorticity shear axis centered east of the southern and central Appalachians, led to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Deep Gulf of Mexico moisture channeling between an amplifying trough over the mid-lower MS Valley and the western Atlantic ridge led to precipitable waters increasing to to over 2.0 over the area. Upper forcing in the form of divergence aloft, within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak that extended down the Mid-Atlantic States, combined with a south-north ribbon of elongated vorticity shear axis centered east of the southern and central Appalachians, led to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain fell over the tri-county area of Nash-Wilson-Edgecombe counties, where training thunderstorms produced a swath of 4 to 6 inches. This area of heavy rainfall flooded numerous roads in these counties, with at least two water rescues in Nash County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 2:48 PM EST, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 348 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A very moist atmosphere, a result of a deep southerly flow, coupled with a series of disturbances aloft will maintain clusters of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain across central NC through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... Surface low pressure remains centered across central Kentucky this afternoon with convection slowly increasing in coverage. This is in response to a strengthening upper level jet streak causing upper level divergence. At the same time a weak upper level disturbance in pulling north over GA and will cross the CWA this evening. PWATs over the triangle are currently above 2.00" (approaching max values for this time of year) with wet bulb zero heights above 12kft (allowing for collision and coalescence processes to dominate). MLcape values also are around 1500 J/kg on average. Given all the above increasing coverage in convection appears likely. High res models have struggled a bit on exactly how the convection will progress with the latest runs of the ARW and NMM trying to develop a linear feature with the HRRR showing more cellular convection. Mean wind is currently from the southwest (or parallel to the lift) so a more cellular distribution appears likely here. Latest run of the GEFS 1" exceedance shows widespread probs greater than 50% through this evening with not much above 2". The old EPS also is similar. With the pattern above this makes sense and a 1-2" QPF average across the western zones looks likely (with locally higher amounts possible). FFG is around 2-3" with amounts lower across urban areas. Given the above will keep the Flash Flood Watch as is. Later this evening the shortwave will shear out and as we loose the PVA the convection will begin to fall apart (esp. as it moves away from the RRQ). High res guidance shows only scattered convection early Wednesday morning and very little in the way of coverage just before sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... During the day Wednesday a mid-level ridge will be centered near Bermuda with an upper level low heading west. Both the GFS and NAM have upper level dry air slowly heading west and encroaching on our eastern zones early Wednesday. This can be clearly seen on GFS and NAM forecast soundings, with the low layer remaining saturated. In the upper levels weak upper level confluence will also be present across our eastern zones. The best chances of convection thus appear to be across the western zones. Global and high res mass fields do in general show this. Overall have trended PoPs down across the east as the day progresses. Wednesday night the mid-level ridge will nudge enough into the area so precipitation chances will be limited. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 236 PM Tuesday... Heavy rain potential continues into Friday (especially in the western half of the area). The threat of heavy rain and flash flooding will continue Thursday into Friday as the anomalous upper trough and deep moisture continue over the region. Models are in general agreement with the threat of heaviest rainfall across the western part of NC extending eastward into the Piedmont. This is where the mid/upper trough will be weakening, but lingering and where the deepest plume of subtropical moisture will exist between the trough to the west, and the expanding upper ridge in the western Atlantic. The Coastal Plain may actually see the least threat of heavy rain as the western Atlantic subtropical ridge shifts west. This will allow some mid level drying to spread inland. However scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected there, too. We will keep the highest POP and QFP in the west, with lesser POP and QFP in the east for both Thursday and Friday. The higher POP will be during the afternoon and evening hours, lasting through 06z or so at night (likely POP west, and high chance east). QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches both days west, with local 2+ inch amounts. QPF in the east 0.25 to 0.50 with local 1 inch amounts expected. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, lows in the lower to mid 70s. For Saturday through Tuesday... expect the widespread showers/storms to become scattered in the western zones and widely scattered eastern zones over the weekend as the subtropical ridge builds over the southeastern states into NC. Locally heavy rain may still be a threat in the Piedmont Saturday. Then, the ridge is forecast to build south of our region, with the mean flow becoming more WNW - with surface lee troughing east of the Appalachians early to mid next week. This pattern suggests hot and humid, with a chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Highs should return to the lower to mid 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Typical climatology for our region for a few days. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 705 AM Tuesday... Most TAF sites are VFR this afternoon with only isolated convection across the central TAF sites and more concentrated convection west of KINT and KGSO. An upper level disturbance can be seen on water vapor this afternoon and is forecast to pull north around an area of high pressure near Bermuda. As this happens the general consensus is for the shortwave to help nudge the precipitation east later this afternoon into evening. Some of the high res actually have a linear type feature trying to form. The feature will then push east and begin to fizzle later this evening as the PVA and better flow is lost. The feature will likely not make it to KFAY and KRWI before loosing cohesion. At KRDU the time of arrival is much more nebulous as the storms will likely be quickly falling apart by this point. Before the quasi-linear feature only scattered convection is forecast. As late evening convection dissipates the weak southerly flow combined with precipitation towards KGSO and KINT will make visibility and ceiling restrictions likely. IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible. Towards KRDU and KFAY chances are much lower for restrictions as widespread rain is less likely towards the east (further supported by SREF probs). Wednesday morning as the sun rises low stratus will be slow to lift with shower and thunderstorm chances again returning late morning into early afternoon. Looking beyond 12z Wed, with a deep flow from the S and SW, unsettled weather will dominate through at least Fri, with a cycle of MVFR to IFR conditions 06z-13z, a slow rise to VFR by 17z, scattered to numerous showers each afternoon and early evening, followed by a trend back down to MVFR to IFR during the late evening hours. Mid level ridging building in from the W late Fri into Sat should result in a decrease in showers/storms as well as improved aviation conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ021-022-038-039- 073. && SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HAINES
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 343 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-011945- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 343 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible through tonight, which may produce localized street flooding in areas of poor drainage. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for locally heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ021-022-038-039-073-011945- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly- 343 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. A few stronger storms might also produce some damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for locally heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ023-074-083-011945- Alamance-Montgomery-Anson- 343 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible through tonight, which may produce localized street flooding in areas of poor drainage. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for locally heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
NCZ040>042-077-312345-
Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
HARNETT...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...WEST CENTRAL JOHNSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...
At 718 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms over Lillington, moving north at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, intermittent lightning strikes, and heavy
rainfall will be possible with this storm. Rainfall rates as high as
two inches per hour will likely reduce visibility and may lead to
flash flooding. Use caution, especially if traveling in the area.
Locations impacted include...
Cary, Lillington, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Clayton, Angier, Apex, Holly
Springs, Coats and Lake Wheeler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3533 7905 3547 7902 3552 7897 3554 7899
3554 7901 3577 7896 3564 7842 3527 7879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 200DEG 36KT 3540 7886
MORROWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
NCZ027-028-043-010030-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Wilson NC-
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL NASH...EDGECOMBE
AND NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...
At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elm City, or 9 miles south of Rocky Mount, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Elm City, Princeville, Sharpsburg, Pinetops,
Macclesfield, Conetoe, Speed and Leggett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3582 7741 3581 7742
3580 7747 3576 7752 3573 7756 3567 7782
3583 7793 3612 7763 3610 7760 3610 7755
3607 7753 3606 7754 3604 7752 3604 7749
3589 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 243DEG 15KT 3582 7778
23PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SW KINGSBORO 35.86N 77.73W
07/31/2018 EDGECOMBE NC TRAINED SPOTTER
WHILE TRAVELING EN ROUTE FROM KINGSBORO TO
TARBORO, FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
812 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
NCZ025-041-010045-
Durham NC-Wake NC-
812 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WAKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...
At 812 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rdu International, or near Raleigh, moving northeast at 30 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rain will be possible with this
storm. Use caution if traveling in this area.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, Rdu International, Morrisville, Falls
Lake, Falls Lake State Rec Area, Falls Lake Boat Ramp, Purnell and
William B Umstead State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.
Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3600 7848 3577 7873 3582 7882 3608 7871
3608 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 210DEG 27KT 3586 7874
MORROW<!doctype html>
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</html>The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:22 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches resulted in widespread flash flooding across the city of Wilson and northern portions of the county.
Numerous street closures due to flash flooding throughout the Rocky Mount city limits.
Heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches resulted in widespread flash flooding in the Sharpsburg area. Numerous roads were closed and 2 water rescues were conducted.
Intersection of South Old Carriage Road and Baywood Road closed due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 776995, 776996, 776997, 776998.