Severe drought conditions in place over a few Central Texas counties ended by the middle of October following substantial rainfall received during the first half of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions in place over a few Central Texas counties ended by the middle of October following substantial rainfall received during the first half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 10:56 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .AVIATION... /6Z TAFS/ Low cloud cover continues to spread north and west tonight and should affect all TAF sites over the next few hours. Similar to the last few nights, there could be some brief periods of IFR cigs toward morning. A little stronger south-southwest flow off the surface after sunrise may allow for a quicker scattering of cloud cover through the morning and we'll show VFR conditions by midday. There may be some scattered showers/storms mainly east of the airports again Monday afternoon. Dunn && .UPDATE... /Issued 913 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018/ All of the showers across Central Texas and parts of our southeast counties have diminished this evening therefore we have removed PoPs for the rest of the night. Otherwise, the current forecast is in good shape. With ample moisture lingering, we expect another round of low stratus to develop and overspread the region through morning. Some of these ragged stratus elements are already spreading north into the region. With overnight lows forecast to be around 70 degrees which is very near our current dewpoints, there may be some patchy fog/drizzle, especially east of I-35 through morning. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018/ /This Afternoon and Tonight/ Rain chances will continue this afternoon and into the early evening hours for mainly East Texas. Satellite imagery at this hour showed a broad upper low spiraling northward across the Sabine River Valley with a decent batch of precipitation pivoting around the periphery of the upper low center. Some of this precipitation may graze areas near and east of a Temple to Corsicana to Paris line through 00 UTC this evening, and I'll maintain some chance PoPs. Total lightning observations indicate that the electrical activity associated with this convection has generally been on the low side. With the cumulus field appearing quite flat, I'll just carry a mention of isolated storms this afternoon. There may be some lingering showers this evening across East Texas down into the Brazos Valley, and I'll advertise a 20 PoP to account for this. Most of the rain showers should diminish after the loss of daytime heating with some partial clearing. With the moist regime in place and generally light winds, there will be the potential for fog development, especially near and east of I-35 during the overnight hours. Recent runs of the HRRR, though this model is typically a little overly aggressive, suggest that visibility may fall below 1 mile in spots. For now, we'll let the evening shift assess additional guidance before posting any fog headlines. Otherwise, it'll remain mild with overnight low temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018/ /Monday through the Weekend/ The upper ridge will be a dominate influencer in the weather this week, but thankfully it will maintain a position to our east. By the weekend, the influence of the ridge may be weakened by an upper level trough to our west. The overall weather forecast through Friday will be fairly consistent on a day-to-day basis with a few tweaks each day. Monday will be fairly similar to the past 2-3 days with light south winds and highs in the 80s. It will be humid, and there remain low chances for afternoon showers and isolated storms south of an Athens to Lometa line. Patchy fog and widespread stratus are expected again in the morning hours, but partly to mostly sunny skies are expected in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as the upper level ridge strengthens a little across the region. On Wednesday and Thursday, several sites will be near 90 degrees. Even with south winds continuing this week, there will not be a big increase of low-level moisture, but at least semi- humid conditions will continue. Wind speeds will increase starting Thursday in response to a low pressure system moving across the Central Plains, and speeds of 10-20 mph will become more common across the western half of the region. We should see more sunshine during this mid-week period. A few diurnally-driven showers and possibly an isolated storm is possible in Central Texas on Tuesday afternoon. The ridge looks like it will further suppress rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday and have reduced PoPs to silent 10 percent chances on these days. A weather mention may need to be reintroduced across our southern counties on these days depending on daily trends of moisture and hi-res guidance. Have also left the slight chance for rain along the Red River Tuesday morning as a fast-moving shortwave to our north could generate some precipitation along and north of the Red River. The large upper level trough to our west will start to slowly expand into the Plains this weekend, but the axis of the trough will remain to our west through at least Monday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to agree that the trough will remain rooted to our west, but vary on the timing and speed of embedded disturbances moving through the larger-scale trough. As the upper level trough nudges into the Plains, it will nudge the ridge farther to our east and strengthen southwest flow aloft overhead. A front will slide south through the Central Plains this weekend, but is expected to stall to our north, across parts of northern OK and Kansas. The greatest concentration of rain this weekend will be tied to the front (to our north and northwest), in tandem where the better southwest flow aloft will also be. However, without the influence of the upper level ridge, at least lower-end chances for diurnally-driven convection will be warranted for the upcoming weekend. Slightly better rain chances may exist across our northwestern counties depending on how far south the front makes it. There is still enough uncertainty in the weekend forecast to bear watching in regards to rain chances. JLDunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 87 71 88 73 / 5 10 10 10 5 Waco 70 88 71 88 72 / 10 20 10 20 10 Paris 68 86 69 87 71 / 10 10 10 20 5 Denton 70 86 72 87 71 / 5 10 10 10 5 McKinney 69 86 71 87 72 / 5 10 10 10 5 Dallas 71 87 72 88 74 / 5 10 10 10 5 Terrell 70 86 70 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 5 Corsicana 71 86 70 88 72 / 10 20 10 20 5 Temple 69 86 71 88 71 / 10 20 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 69 86 69 87 70 / 5 10 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 333 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 333 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There will be a risk for an isolated thunderstorm or two through the early evening hours for locations near and east of a Temple to Corsicana to Paris line. Severe weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours across parts of the area through Tuesday, mainly across East and Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected, but brief heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning may occur. Chances for storms may increase next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions were eliminated during the second week of October following substantial rainfall across the area.
Severe (D2) drought conditions were eliminated during the second week of October following substantial rainfall across the area.
Severe (D2) drought conditions were eliminated during the second week of October following substantial rainfall across the area.
Severe (D2) drought conditions were eliminated during the second week of October following substantial rainfall across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 789907, 789908, 789909, 789910.