Strong westerly winds affected the Guadalupe Mountains due to a passing upper trough.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Strong westerly winds affected the Guadalupe Mountains due to a passing upper trough.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 20, 10:51 AM MST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 20/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Strong southeasterly winds will continue through the afternoon as
a strong surface low develops in the lee of the southern Rockies.
These winds have lofted some dust, and we've carried MVFR BLDU as
a TEMPO or prevailing at most TAF sites this afternoon. We still
expect SCT convection to develop late this afternoon along a KHOB-
KINK line, with these terminals along with KMAF impacted by storms
in the 23Z-02Z time frame; however, confidence in a TEMPO at these
sites isn't sufficient enough to include at this time, and we will
amend as convective trends become more clear. Winds are expected
to lose some punch after 02Z or so then falling at or below 12
knots around local midnight. Winds are expected to veer to south-
westerly around 12kts by 21/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Breezy southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will increase
to 25 to 35 mph and gusty by mid to late morning and continue
this afternoon through early this evening. Low level moisture
will also be on the increase today with VFR ceilings developing
this morning and continuing into this evening. A strong upper
level storm system and dryline will combine to bring a chance or
tempo MVFR conditions in tsra and blowing dust to most terminals
(except KCNM) late this afternoon and this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will roll east today
reaching the Rockies by afternoon. This low will cross onto the
plains Saturday then move east with high pressure building in
behind it. The next upper trough moves ashore the West Coast
Sunday but does not make it to the plains till mid week.
Looks to be a windy day across much of the area... will start out
with a low level jet then later in the day stronger winds aloft will
mix down to the surface. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the Guadalupe Mountains with a Wind Advisory for the Permian Basin
and portions of the Trans Pecos and SE NM plains.
As of 08z best low level moisture is shunted west with dewpts in 40s
W and SW but moisture is increasing areawide with a steady SE fetch.
As the upper low approaches a surface trough/dryline will develop
across the area today as a westerly wind moves in from Northern
Mexico/Far West TX. East of the dryline expect decent low level
moisture with dewpts into the 50s. There could be a few storms
during the morning but thunderstorm chances will increase during the
afternoon and evening along and east of the dryline. There will be
a marginal risk of severe storms basically along the NM/TX border
with large hail and damaging wind the main concerns. The highest
pops will be NE late. With abundant cloud cover highs today
should be in the 70s east with 80s west where sun more prevalent.
On Saturday a cold front will move down into the area... timing of
this front will affect afternoon highs across the Permian Basin
and SE NM. Highs should be in the 70s north Saturday with 80s
farther south and 90s along the Rio Grande. Sunday will be the
cool day with highs mainly in the 70s but 80s return Monday with
readings warming Tuesday. Next cold front late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Models also develop some scattered precip in the
extended with next upper trough... will see if this turns out to
be reasonable as time gets closer.
FIRE WEATHER...
No changes were made to the ongoing fire weather forecast. Potent
upper level storm system approaching the four corners region will
move slowly toward the central rockies by this evening. Dryline
will sharpen significantly today with daytime heating and head east
from central New Mexico to a Hobbs, Pecos, Alpine line by early this
evening. Behind the dryline generally gusty west winds of 20 to 30
mph is expected (higher in the mountains) with min rh/s of 5 to 15
percent. This will result in maximum RFTI values ranging from 6 to 8
across western sections of southeast New Mexico plains Zone 115 and
the Guadalupe Mountains to RFTI values of 2 from near Hobbs south to
Alpine. Extremely dry fuels will continue and critical fire
weather conditions are expected late this morning through mid
evening. Conditions will improve this evening as winds diminish
with nocturnal cooling but overnight recovery will remain poor in
the warned area.
The aforementioned upper level storm system will move across the
southern plains on Saturday. Cooler temperatures and decreasing wind
speeds yield RFTI values of 2 to 4 mainly west of the Pecos River in
southwest Texas with elevated to mainly near critical conditions
expected.
Fire weather concerns should ease Sunday and Monday as temperatures
cool and moisture increases behind a cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 52 74 44 72 / 50 10 0 0
Carlsbad 48 78 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 55 92 49 78 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 54 80 46 74 / 20 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 47 73 48 68 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 46 71 41 71 / 20 0 0 0
Marfa 43 75 40 72 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 52 78 44 73 / 30 0 0 0
Odessa 53 77 44 72 / 30 0 0 0
Wink 47 81 44 75 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains-Southeast Plains.
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Southern Lea
County.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Crane-
Ector-Glasscock-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Upton-Ward-
Winkler.
&&
70/49/70Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 427 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-210930- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos- Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan- Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau- Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains- 427 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 /327 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Critical to extreme fire weather conditions will return today across Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas late this morning through mid evening. Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon through tonight mainly across the Permian Basin and south through the Lower Trans Pecos. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, potentially producing large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday mainly west of the Pecos River in southwest Texas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... There is a 30 percent chance of spotter activation late this afternoon and this evening. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... http://weather.gov/midland
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, April 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 743554.