Flooding in Minnesota, April 20 to 26, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

An abundance of cloud cover across the region today, but
temperatures are still reaching into the 40s and 50s.  The reason
for the cloud cover is an upper low moving into the Central Plains
this afternoon.  Generally, the most impactful weather will stay to
our south today.  That said, could see a few showers or sprinkles
move into the area this evening and continue into the overnight
hours.  QPF amounts will be on the light side.

The low will wobble across Kansas on Saturday, keeping an increased
amount of cloud cover over the local area on Saturday.  However,
conditions should remain dry, and temperatures will again climb into
the upper 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The upper low moves far enough to the southeast to allow a return of
sunshine and more southerly flow on Sunday.  Temperatures for once
will climb up near their seasonal normals for the first time this
month.

Monday will be the best day we've had all month.  A light
southwesterly wind and warming low level temperatures will push
highs above normal and into the 60s in most every location. There
is a bit of concern about some low level cloud cover drifting
northward through the day, which could impact our highs slightly.

Medium range models are converging on a solution that brings a
progressive northern trough through the Plains on Tuesday.  This
trough will a frontal boundary through the area, early Tuesday,
with post frontal rainfall expected through the daytime hours.
Colder air will slowly rotate into this system by Tuesday evening,
but the timing of the cold air arrival will likely not lead to
any large changeover to snow.

Shortwave ridging moves through the region ahead of yet another fast
moving wave in the northern stream.  This will result in another dry
and warmer day on Wednesday. Temperatures may not quite reach normal
levels in the lower 60s however.   The next system in the forecast
moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday.  This system may
be more moisture starved given the lack of recovery time between the
system moving through on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Hit or miss sprinkles or light rain showers are possible through
the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, predominantly VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period with mid level
clouds in place.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Kalin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-212215-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
505 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.