The late afternoon and evening hours on this Wednesday featured some of the most-intense winds of fall 2018 within South Central Nebraska, as a sharp cold front raced southward across the region. m.
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The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
The late afternoon and evening hours on this Wednesday featured some of the most-intense winds of fall 2018 within South Central Nebraska, as a sharp cold front raced southward across the region. Starting around 4 p.m. CDT in far northern local counties (such as Valley/Greeley) and reaching the Kansas border area by 7 p.m. CDT, most places observed at least a one-to-two hour period of sustained north-northwest winds generally 25-40 MPH and frequent gusts at least 40-50 MPH. Several official and unofficial automated stations clocked peak gusts over 50 MPH, highlighted by severe-criteria magnitudes of 62 MPH at Ord airport and 58 MPH at Grand Island airport. Hastings airport fell just shy of severe-criteria with a peak gust of 56 MPH. While there were no significant damage reports, small tree limbs were reported down in Ord (this likely occurred in other places as well).
As for the meteorological setup, and starting with the mid levels, a vigorous shortwave trough passed well north of the local area, tracking from ND to MN. However, pronounced pressure rises accompanied the associated surface cold front into Nebraska, featuring a bullseye of two-hour rises between 4-6 millibars, emanating from an expansive high centered over eastern MT. The combination of these notable pressure rises into a deeply-mixed afternoon boundary layer proved more than sufficient to whip up the intense winds. In addition to the winds, this cold front was also responsible for a drastic 24-hour temperature change. Afternoon highs across South Central Nebraska on the 3rd (just ahead of this front) soared to record/near-record values in the upper-80s to mid-90s F. However, daytime highs on the 4th were a remarkable 45-55 degrees colder, only reaching the upper-30s to mid-40s in most counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 3, 2:06 PM CST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 Temps have soared this afternoon aided by a downslope wind component ahead of a cold frontal boundary currently located across western and northern Nebraska. Both Grand Island have reached 93 degrees so far today, which is within a degree of record highs of 94 which were set in 1938. The hot temperatures will be very shortlived as the cold front crosses this evening, ushering in noticeably colder air aboard strong and gusty northerly winds. Pressure rises behind the front average 6 to 10 mb and winds will be intense for a time behind the boundary and wind gusts of 63 mph have been reported at KVTN within the past hour and KTIF had a wind gust of 52 mph. The boundary is expected to move through precipitation free tonight, with temps dropping significantly, settling into the upper 30s in our north for lows and the 40s in the south. Wind speeds decrease through the day as high pressure builds southeast onto the plains and the surface gradient relaxes. After near record highs today, temperatures Thursday will be 40 to 45 degrees colder with temps averaging in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. Chances for a cold rain remain in the forecast Thursday as a shortwave trough lifts out across the plains. High resolution models suggest timing of rain may begin in the morning in our western zones with rain spreading to the north and east. Overall precip amounts are not looking significant, but cannot rule out rainfall of a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch. Instability is pretty low until afternoon when some thunder returns to the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 The extended periods will reflect cool Fall temperatures, with increasing chances for rain late this weekend and into next week. Thursday night...any ongoing rain showers or isolated storms during the evening look to wind down west to east as the mid level shortwave trough axis departs the Central Plains. Then overnight, elevated convection is possible along/north of the frontal boundary in the vicinity of our southeast zones with lifted aided by strong 40kt low level jet. Still not looking for severe weather with the main instability and shear axis to our southeast. Friday could see some rain around particularly in our southern/eastern zones as the southern boundary edges north as a warm front, ahead of a cold front pushing south through Neb Friday aftn/evening. The frontal boundary orienting across our southeast zones will again be the focus for convection Friday evening into Friday night, with some more hit or miss post frontal showers possible north of the front with the progression of an upper trough. Another period of steady/gusty north winds are forecast behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning until the surface gradient relaxes Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds southeast onto the plains. Temperatures Saturday will reflect the colder air in place with highs averaging in the 50s. The weather pattern undergoes changes on Sunday as a western upper trough continues to deepen over the Rockies, increasing the southerly flow across our region and drawing moisture north. Rain is expected to develop to our south and spread north Sunday with periods of rain continuing through the first part of next week until the western upper trough lifts out either Tuesday or Wednesday deepening on the model (ECMWF slower than the GFS). Precipitable water values average an inch to an inch and a half (west/east) Sunday/Monday and widespread, decent rainfall totals are expected with the highest rain totals forecast across our southern/eastern counties. Overall, cooler and wet conditions are forecast heading into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 The main concern for the terminals into tonight will be strong and gusty winds. In deep mixing today ahead of a cold front southwest to west wind gusts around 30kts are expected, and behind the cold front this evening into tonight look for winds to switch to the north with wind gusts of 30 to 35kt forecast. Wind speeds will gradually subside heading into Thursday as the gradient relaxes as high pressure builds southeast onto the plains. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 Record highs for today... Record high temperatures for Wednesday, October 3rd: Grand Island, NE...94 set in 1938. Hastings, NE.......94 set in 1938. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && SHORT TERM...Fay LONG TERM...Fay AVIATION...Fay CLIMATE...Thies
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 041200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight. A period of intense winds are expected this evening behind a cold front. Northwest wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph and gusts around 50 mph are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There are intermittent chances for thunderstorms across various portions of the outlook area Thursday through Monday night. Severe storms are not currently anticipated. However, repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms could lead to locally heavy rain and potentially isolated flooding Sunday into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 62 mph occurred at Evelyn Sharp Field in Ord, behind a strong cold front.
A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island, behind a strong cold front.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 778809, 778810.