A broken line of thunderstorms moved slowly east across parts of southeast Missouri. One of these storms pulsed up to severe levels for a short time.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A broken line of thunderstorms moved slowly east across parts of southeast Missouri. One of these storms pulsed up to severe levels for a short time. The storms occurred along a weak cold front that trailed southwest from a low pressure center over southwest Ohio. A closed 500 mb low over east central Missouri provided additional support for the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:47 AM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1247 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 Early morning data showed a surface low over middle TN with a positive tilt trof and low center just to our west. Forcing and adequate moisture continue to result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This trend will continue through the early morning, then gradually shift north through the day as the system draws closer. We should see chances for scattered convection edge back up this afternoon in close proximity to the H7 low over the region. This feature will head northeast and take the convective activity with it tonight. PoPs will continue across the east Wednesday with the H5 trof axis overhead. Wednesday night through Thursday night should be dry with weak high pressure building in. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 The pesky weak upper level trough that seems to be stagnant over the area will continue to be the main feature on the weather maps to start the day on Friday. The exact evolution of what happens to this weak trough is still not agreed upon by the models. However, the general consensus is for the trough to weaken over time. Weak high pressure at the surface will be tending to break down and southerly flow will start to become established during the day Friday and into the weekend. This will aid in increasing moisture throughout the depth of the atmosphere, mainly over west Kentucky to start with. The GFS and its ensemble means are most aggressive in bringing precipitation chances into west KY as early as Friday afternoon. Will mention some slight chances in the far southeastern sections of the FA for now but do not expect much at this point, given model inconsistencies. The upper level pattern becomes more diffuse with time, as we head into the weekend time frame. The GFS looks a bit overdone with its scattered QPF on Saturday but the ensemble means do support at least a chance for convection given the increase in moisture and a weak upper level disturbance. The GFS is indicating much more in the way of instability than the ECMWF for Saturday and Sunday, with the ECWMF keeping the better instability progs to our east with the better moisture. Will maintain inherited 20 to 30 POPs for the weekend, mainly diurnal, but right now, expecting any coverage of showers and storms to be low. That may change if models obtain a handle on any small features in this fairly disorganized upper flow regime. By late in the weekend and into early next week, the upper high that was located over the southeastern states, will retrograde westward and eventually become situated over the Gulf Coast states. This should typically allow for drier weather across our region and increasing temperatures. Will maintain that thinking for now. Highs will be around normal for this time period, ranging from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with some locales probably reaching into the lower 90s at times. Although humidity values will start out fairly comfortable for this time of the year on Friday, increasing moisture will cause an increase in humidity values, as the dew point temperatures reach the 70 degree mark over the weekend. This will raise apparent temperature readings into the upper 90s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 Low MVFR cigs should lift to AOA 3k ft early this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convective activity this afternoon and early evening, but too sparse for explicit mention in TAFS at this time. Tonight, there may be some fog and/or broken IFR cloud development with near calm winds. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...GM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are forecast today and early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. There is a small chance of thunderstorms in the forecast Wednesday mainly from southwest Indiana into west Kentucky. The next chance for a few thunderstorms will be this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
258 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018
MOZ110-312030-
Stoddard MO-
258 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STODDARD COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...
At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bloomfield, moving east at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bloomfield and Bell City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3703 9010 3704 9003 3704 9000 3705 8999
3708 8980 3689 8970 3688 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 272DEG 22KT 3698 8997
GREGThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:12 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail covered the ground in Aquilla. The biggest hailstones were estimated to be the size of quarters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 764458.