Two mesoscale convective systems moved through eastern Kentucky during the day. The first tracked through during the early to mid afternoon hours, while the second followed in its wake from mid afternoon through the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Two mesoscale convective systems moved through eastern Kentucky during the day. The first tracked through during the early to mid afternoon hours, while the second followed in its wake from mid afternoon through the evening. Strong to severe winds along the leading edge of each complex led to scattered damage throughout eastern Kentucky, mainly consisting of downed trees. Additionally, isolated flash flooding occurred in Jackson and Whitley Counties due to the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Clover Bottom in particular saw very heavy rainfall as over 3 inches of rain in a short period of time damaged a portion of U.S. Highway 421.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:27 AM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1227 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1227 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 Line of showers and storms now bearing down on the area. The line has built to the south a bit and now looks to take aim on areas between the Hal Rogers Parkway and I-64. Instability has increased to near 2500J/kg. DCAPE is also nearing 1300J/kg, which is more than sufficient to mix down some damaging wind gusts. Some nice velocity signatures have been noted on KJKL radar suggesting there is some decent potential for some strong winds getting to the surface. In fact a warning has already been issued upstream. Updated grids to increase pops and sky cover. Also adjusted temperatures to reflect a temperature drop with the line of storms moving through. UPDATE Issued at 1039 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 A complex of showers and storms continues to approach the lexington area from the west and is expected to move into areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway by noon. Have updated pops and weather to bring them up to likely and categorical for these areas. Areas further south will stay dry into the afternoon, but we are watching another complex of showers/storms in western Kentucky that may move into southern Kentucky late this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 954 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 Shower/storm activity from this morning is exiting to the east into West Virginia. Still a few isolated showers impacting areas across Wayne and McCreary counties. Otherwise, much of the area has cleared out in the wake of the early morning activity with temperatures already rising sharply through the 70s. With dewpoints holding around 70, already seeing some instability develop across east Kentucky. Watching a few storms near Louisville this morning as they are tracking east towards the area. These should arrive here by early afternoon. By then, we will have had plenty of sunshine and instability in place. This could allow this activity to strengthen as it approaches the area. SPC did expand the slight risk over more of eastern Kentucky with the 9 am update this morning. This makes sense given the instability we will see today. Shear is not fantastic, but may be just enough to produce some strong to severe storms. Models do not have much of a handle on what is happening out there this morning, so may need to do more nowcast updates today given the uncertainty. As it stands right now, the activity near Louisville will reach our Bluegrass counties around noon. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 Forecast is in pretty good shape so far. An area showers is currently making its way across the SE portion of the CWA, so went ahead and increased coverage to scattered here. Latest HRRR shows this broken line continuing to deteriorate over the next couple of hours as better convection begins to develop across south-central Kentucky. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term grids for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the near term forecast. All updates have been sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 440 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 Today's weather will feature continued SW flow, pulling warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio River Valley. An upper level wave is expected to be in place across eastern Kentucky today, dampening as a deeper wave forms near the Mississippi River Valley. This second, deeper wave is poised to move across Kentucky during the overnight and through the day Friday. At the surface, a cold front will begin to from over Missouri and Illinois today. Following the progression of the upper level shortwave, this front will shift eastward toward the Ohio River overnight, and then traverse Kentucky southward through the day Friday. As for sensible weather, expect the continuation of warm and humid conditions across the region for the short term portion of the forecast. Highs today will be in the mid 80s, but with humidity will feel closer to 90 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, and Friday will be a couple degrees cooler with the passing cold front, with low to mid 80s forecast. The tricky part comes with the precip chances throughout the period. With the upper level wave moving overhead, and a warm/moist airmass in place, expect the development of convection throughout the daytime hours, peaking in the afternoon/evening. While soundings continue to look robust, with LI's near -10 and CAPE topping 3,000 j/kg in many locations across eastern KY this afternoon, the shear still looks underwhelming, both in speed and direction. The best directional shear (though still not great) continues to lie across the far SW CWA, west of I-65 where SPC still has a slight risk outlined for the day. This lack of shear will make it hard for storms to organize and reach severe limits, but can't rule out the possibility of some stronger storms throughout the day, and perhaps some isolated severe. Regardless, any storm that develops will likely put down some heavy rainfall and may not be moving very quickly given the lack of good steering flow, so will continue to watch for training and/or slow moving storms for isolated flash flood potential. As we head into the overnight, the second upper level wave begins to impact Kentucky, staying mainly across the western and central portions of the state. The surface cold front will also near the Ohio River, becoming a focal point for overnight convection. With that in mind, the latest CAMs/hi-res models are actually diminishing any convective potential across eastern Kentucky throughout the overnight, and keeping the focus well to our west. Latest NAM12 forecast soundings do show a pretty steep inversion setting up overnight which will likely deter from new convective development. However, instability will remain in place aloft through much of the night, so can't rule out some lingering storms and/or isolated development. After collaboration with neighboring offices, lowered pops across our CWA drastically compared to the model blends and synoptic models (though even the GFS and ECMWF were hinting at a dry far SE overnight). Did leave in chance pops along our western border next to LMK, in case any convection associated with the cold front is able to propagate far enough eastward to reach our CWA before dissipating. Heading into Friday, the wave shifts across eastern Kentucky and the cold front also begins to traverse the CWA. Once again, expect this to couple with the warm/moist airmass in place to produce another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Decent CAPEs just under 3,000 j/kg and steep lapse rates will be in place, but shear will still be lacking, especially as winds turn more westerly late in the day as the cold front passes though. Again, expect organization to be hard to achieve with any storm that develops, though some isolated storms may be able to reach near severe limits. Continued heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will be of concern this day as well with the same factors in place as today. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 Scattered showers will continue into Friday evening and night as the above mentioned shortwave trough slides east into the Appalachians, subsequently sending a cool front through eastern Kentucky. Elevated convection will likely keep some thunder in the offing through the evening prior to cold pools overwhelming the some 20 knots of deep layer shear that may be able to be mustered. May see a few storms develop across far eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon as the front loses southeasterly momentum and hangs up near the higher terrain, owing to what looks to be at least some deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Appalachians. Shortwave ridging aloft and the southern extent of a narrow surface ridge will lead to a dry spell later Saturday into at least early Sunday, before northern stream energy swings into the Ohio Valley and reintroduces shower/storm chances Sunday into Sunday evening as a more noticeable cold front swings through eastern Kentucky. This refreshing early June airmass should largely hold in place through at least the middle of next week as a period of drier northwest flow resides in place. Digging and strengthening of the above mentioned northern stream trough across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes will be the main driver of this, as upper ridging and heat build north through the Great Plains and into the Midwest. It appears that at some point, likely toward the middle to end of next week, return flow will set up with warming temperatures and rain chances returning. Until then, early to mid week currently looks to bring high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid- upper 50s, along with much more comfortable humidity levels. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 A warm and humid airmass is in place once again across the region. This will interact with a passing upper level wave throughout the day to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. While the overarching conditions should remain VFR, any shower or thunderstorm that impacts a TAF site could briefly reduce VIS or CIGS to MVFR or lower. Unfortunately, not knowing exactly when and where these showers and storms are going to set up throughout the day, ended up just blanketing the TAFs with VCTS starting by mid/late morning. As we head into the overnight, expect convection to diminish somewhat with loss of daytime heating. However with another wave of energy moving into the state, it is possible that at least isolated convection could sustain well through the night. With this in mind, kept VCTS going through the overnight as well. Winds will generally be out of the SW through the period around 10 knots or less, but could gust higher if storms pass across or near a TAF site. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...JMW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1058 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011800- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1058 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds and flash flooding being the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible from Friday through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to send in any reports of wind damage, heavy rain, and flooding this afternoon and evening. KAS
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:16 UTC.
15 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A local utility company reported a large oak tree blown down on to power lines on Whitepine Lane in the Furnace area, northeast of Irvine.
Dispatch relayed reports of trees down on U.S. Highway 460 and Kentucky Highway 77 near Mariba, southeast of Frenchburg.
Dispatch reported a tree blown down northwest of Bethany.
A local media outlet reported a tree blown down on power lines on Lost Creek Road northwest of Dice, resulting in a temporary closure of the road.
Dispatch reported a tree blown down on U.S. Highway 421 near Burning Springs.
A trained Skywarn Storm Spotter observed portions of U.S. Highway 421, from Sandgap to Clover Bottom, heavily damaged from rapidly flowing flood waters following over three inches of rain.
Dispatch relayed a report of a large tree blown down across the road in the vicinity of Cedar Lake.
Dispatch reported a large tree limb blown down in Stanton.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree blown down just southeast of Pineville along U.S. Highway 25E.
Dispatch reported a couple of trees knocked down in the vicinity of Shopville.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree blown down on Bluestone Road west of Morehead.
Dispatch reported a tree blown down onto a power line near Arnett, northwest of West Liberty.
Dispatch reported multiple trees knocked down from near Mill Springs to Monticello.
Dispatch relayed reports of trees blown down from north of Rockholds on Kentucky Highway 26 to west of Clio.
Dispatch reported a tree downed on Taylor Lane southeast of Barbourville.
Dispatch reported a few trees and power lines blown down in Williamsburg.
Dispatch reported that a portion of Mauney Chapel Road, northwest of Rockholds, was heavily damaged due to swiftly flowing flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 748473, 748046, 748048, 748051, 748054, 748121, 748056, 748058, 749543, 748062, 748064, 748066, 748067, 748068, 748072, 748074, 748122.