Wildfire in Hawaii, July 3 to 5, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
950 AM HST Tue Jul 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the islands will support a trade wind
weather pattern through the weekend. Trades will become breezy
today, with another uptick in winds later in the week. Expect clouds
and showers to be focused over windward and mauka areas, with some
showers reaching leeward areas due to the stronger winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the PoPs and associated fields over the Big Island
for this afternoon based on the high resolution models. Not
expecting the build ups that we had yesterday afternoon, as the
upper level atmosphere is starting to stabilize, but can't rule
out a brief heavier shower or two.

High pressure far north of the islands will drive the forecast
through the weekend. The high is expected to linger and slowly
move to the west through the end of the work week. During the
weekend, the high is expected to continue to drift to the west.
Models indicate a bit of an uptick in the winds again at the end
of the week. Throughout the week, some areas of moisture will
ride in on the trades from time to time, which will enhance the
trade wind showers.

Showers will be focused over the typical windward and mauka areas
with the trade winds, but with breezy winds, some of the showers
will reach leeward areas at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong high pressure will persist in the Northeast Pacific,
promoting light to locally moderate trade wind flow across the
Hawaiian Islands through at least the next 24 hours. Multiple
bands of high topped stratocumulus embedded in the trade wind flow
continue to impact mainly E and NE facing slopes and coasts with
isolated showers. The airmass over the E half of the state remains
mildly unstable, and more shower coverage with an area of higher
moisture over that region. Shower coverage and intensity is
expected to decrease through the day today.

No AIRMETs currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far N of the islands will move slowly W and
strengthen the next few days, supporting locally strong trade
winds as it does so. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for
the windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island will likely
remain posted for the foreseeable future, and may need to be
expanded to other zones around Thursday or Friday if trade winds
surge as some models depict. Additionally, combined seas may
exceed 10 feet in most areas by the weekend, which would require
an expansion of the SCA.

A weather pattern favorable for the generation of long-period S
swells aimed at Hawaii prevailed in the S hemisphere for most of
last week, so elevated surf along S facing shores is expected for
most of this week. With peak swell heights near 3 feet, surf along
S facing shores is expected to approach but remain below advisory
levels. As trade winds build later in the week, so will short-
period wind waves, leading to increased surf along E facing
shores. A long-period E swell from strengthening Hurricane Fabio
in the E Pacific is forecast to arrive late in the week through
the weekend. The combination of short- and long-period swells is
expected to bring high surf to E facing shores beginning around
Thursday and continuing through the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Kino/Wroe