Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 3, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
500 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

With an upper trough over the Pac NW, upper flow is southwesterly
over the northern plains. Skies across the CWA are partly cloudy.
The surface low sits over south central SD, with the cool
front/stationary boundary stretching westward into WY. Winds are
light and variable, and temperatures are rising into the 80s.

This evening, a shortwave associated with the upper trough will
slide into the region. Best 0-6 km shear (40-50 kts) will be across
the western half of the CWA, while best instability (MLCAPE of 2-3
kJ/kg) will be across the eastern half. Nonetheless, decent
overlapping of each, combined with the upper-level forcing and low-
level boundary, should provide a good environment for the
development of strong to severe thunderstorms and allow the cap to
be broken. CAMs are showing storms moving into northeastern WY
around 23-00Z as multicells and supercells, spreading across western
SD during the evening while turning into a LLJ-enhanced MCS, and
finally exiting the CWA around midnight. Expecting wind and hail to
be the main threats initially, changing into more of a wind threat
as the evening progresses. Also cannot rule out tornadoes,
especially along the boundary.

A drier pattern will begin Wednesday, along with a warming trend, as
an upper ridge builds over the western and central states. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday,
warming into the 90s for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 500 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Scattered TSRA will cross the area this evening into the overnight
period. Some of the TSRA will be strong to severe, with gusty
winds the primary concern. Brief MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will
also be possible in the strongest storms. MVFR cigs may linger
behind the storms across northeast WY before conditions improve
by morning. Gusty northwest winds will also develop overnight and
continue through early Wednesday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Sherburn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-041300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
Northeastern Crook-
414 AM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight. Some storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging
winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ046-047-049-041300-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
514 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight. Some storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging
winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. Some thunderstorms
may be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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