Wildfire in Colorado, July 3 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
546 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

While a longwave upper level trough over the northern Rockies
lifts to the northeast tonight, our area will remain under south
to southwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave evident in this flow
approaching the Four Corners will continue northeast and pass
over the southern and central mountains of Colorado tonight. Lift
ahead of this feature has already led to increased development and
coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the San Juans and
Continental Divide. Expect for these showers to produce only
light rainfall and dissipate with sunset.

Despite the upper level southerly flow tonight, high resolution
models show the smoke associated with the 416 wildfire getting
trapped under a low level inversion after sunset and moving
downvalley again south over the Animas River Valley. So, will
issue another Dense Smoke Advisory for that area.

Another weak shortwave appears to be on track to take a similar
path Wednesday afternoon, although possibly a little farther west
as the large upper level anti-cyclone to our east builds west. So
similar low-end chance of rain Wednesday focused over the higher
terrain of southern and central CO. Max temperatures should be a
degree or two warmer than today in general.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the bulk of this period a large anti-cyclone aloft will be
parked over the region. This continued above normal temperatures
and triple digit heat likely for the lower valleys. The position
of the upper level high is not conducive for drawing up moisture
from the sub-tropics, and in fact the core of higher moisture
remains well to the south. However, models continue to advertise
high levels of moisture working their way west and northwest
under the high pressure aloft. Regardless of whether this is for
real, daily heating over the mountains will result in the usual
midday through early evening convective development with resultant
lightning threat, light rain and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Isolated showers have moved through the higher terrain through
this afternoon. Gusty winds continue at a majority of terminals.
These trends will continue through sunset before activity
diminishes overnight. VFR is expected at all terminals however an
occasional shower can not be ruled out at TEX, ASE, and EGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

A trough of low pressure passing north of the area late today will
continue to yield gusty winds in a corridor across eastern UT and
northwest CO where Red Flag warnings remain in effect. RH will
recover along with weakening winds later this evening. Winds will
not be a concern for the next few days, but lightning from
thunderstorms will be a daily threat over the higher terrain
especially for southern and central areas. Will continue to
monitor for bonafide threat of dry lightning. Confidence is low
for moisture being on the increase leading to better chances of
wetting rains later this week and weekend.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

     Dense Smoke Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT
     Wednesday for COZ019-022.

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Utz486-487-490.

&&

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...MAC
FIRE WEATHER...BM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-041200-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
304 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions will persist through this evening
for portions of eastern Utah and northwest Colorado where a Red
Flag warning is in effect. Dense smoke will again filter down the
Animas River Valley from the 416 wildfire. Isolated thunderstorms
over the central and southern Colorado mountains will diminish
after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Dense smoke will lift off the Animas River Valley Wednesday
morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
generally over the mountains each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.