A shortwave trough approached the area and interacted with a surface boundary which led to thunderstorm development during the late evening and overnight hours. Ample deep layer shear and enhanced instability were present.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A shortwave trough approached the area and interacted with a surface boundary which led to thunderstorm development during the late evening and overnight hours. Ample deep layer shear and enhanced instability were present. Storms initiated over western North Dakota, then gradually spread eastward overnight. Hail size remained on the low end of severe criteria, with multiple reports of one inch diameter hail. The strongest wind occurred in Wells County, where 80 mph wind gusts damaged a farmstead. Also, heavy rains occurred over portions of Emmons County, producing flash flooding in the Westfield and Linton areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 4:48 PM MST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 No major changes were needed for this update. Just tweaked precipitation chances through 12z using a blend of the latest time lagged HRRR and the latest run of CONSSHORT guidance. Still think a strong to severe storm may be possible in the next couple of hours over the far southern James River Valley. The next round, that will enter the southwest around 02z to 05z, will likely track across the southern third of the forecast area through the overnight hours. Some of these storms may also become strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 The main forecast issue in the short term period will be thunderstorm chances tonight. Currently, low pressure was situated over central South Dakota with a warm front into eastern North Dakota, and a weak inverted trough into north central-northwest ND. The area of low pressure and warm front will remain nearly stationary through this evening. Low pressure will continue to develop over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas ahead of an upper low and associated shortwave trough currently tracking through the northern Rockies. We continue to destabilize this afternoon over the Dakotas with current MLCAPE values around 500-1000J/kg north to nearly 3000J/kg over portions of the southern James River Valley, and a broad area of 50-60 knots of deep layer shear over most of the state of ND. CAMS have been pretty consistent in developing two areas of convection this afternoon/early evening. The first is along the Canadian border over northwest/north central ND in an area of steepening low level lapse rates. Even though deep layer shear is significant here, mid level lapse rates lag behind the central and southern portion of the state and CAPE values are more meager. The southern James River Valley and into northeast South Dakota is the second area of convection to focus on early in the forecast period. Very unstable airmass exists here with steep mid level lapse rates and abundant low level moisture. The threat for very large hail will exist here as well as possible tornadoes, especially as you get farther south, along the far southern tier counties and moreso into South Dakota. This will be the favored area to monitor late this afternoon into this evening. Later tonight the aforementioned shortwave trough should have fired convection over the northern high plains and it will be making its way into the Dakotas. Some of the CAMS suggest another possible bowing segment somewhere in the vicinity of the ND/SD border. There may be another area that clips the northwest portion of the state, associated with the upper low. The threat of severe weather in this area is more uncertain, with a marginal risk from SPC up to the Canadian border. The upper trough finally pushes convection completely through the forecast area by the morning of the 4th. This will bring clearing skies from west to east in the morning and mostly sunny but breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Wednesday night through Saturday, an upper level western ridge builds behind the exiting upper low, and this ridge expands into the Plains. This should result in a generally thunderstorm free period with a warming trend. However, an isolated storm due to the heating of the day can not be completely ruled out somewhere in the forecast area. Look for highs Thursday from 75-85F, warming to 85-95 for Friday and Saturday. On Saturday afternoon we see heat indices rise to around 100F ahead of a cold front that pushes through the forecast area, bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Will need to monitor for possible heat advisory conditions, but thinking now that we will not reach criteria for a long enough period. Another strong upper level shortwave moves east out of the Pacific Northwest Saturday/Saturday night, dampening the upper ridge and bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area Saturday night, followed by a more zonal flow across our area Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Another round of strong to severe storms is likely to enter southwest North Dakota around 02z to 05z, before increasing in coverage and making its way across the forecast area. Thunderstorms will be possible at all sites during the overnight hours, but the best chance for large hail and strong winds will generally remain over the southern third of the forecast area. For the most part, VFR conditions and light winds are expected, but winds may become erratic with temporary visibility reductions under heavier storms. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...ZH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 958 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-050300- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells- Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder- Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan- La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 958 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 /858 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Some storms will be severe with large hail and damaging winds. The greatest risk of severe weather during this timeframe will be over western and central North Dakota. Strong to severe storms will possibly last into the early morning hours on Independence day. In addition, any storms that develop this afternoon through tonight will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, leading to localized flooding. Severe thunderstorm watch #261 has been issued for most of western and central North Dakota through 4 AM CDT or 3 AM MDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A few strong to severe storms may linger overnight and into early Independence Day morning, with strong winds and very heavy rainfall being the greatest threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed overnight over western and central North Dakota. ZH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
824 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018
NDZ043-040315-
Bowman-
824 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOWMAN COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM MDT...
At 824 PM MDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 6 miles south of
Ladner, or 14 miles northwest of Buffalo, moving northeast at 55 mph.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Wind gusts to 50 mph and half inch hail are also possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Bowman, Scranton, Rhame, Mud Buttes, Griffin, Gascoyne, Sunset Butte,
Bowman Haley Dam and Buffalo Springs.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4595 10400 4627 10397 4627 10300 4618 10299
4595 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 220DEG 49KT 4574 10374
HEINERTThe Bismarck radar (KBIS), 200 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:58 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 7 hail, 1 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Law Enforcement estimated thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 mph.
The public estimated thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 mph.
A trained spotter reported thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 mph.
Large trees were uprooted in the city of Wilton.
Lightning struck a house and started a fire.
A well constructed wooden barn that was recently built was destroyed. Other farm buildings were damaged. A grain auger was toppled, and a large spruce tree was uprooted.
Up to four inches of rain resulted in flash flooding over portions of southern and central Emmons County. In the city of Linton, major street flooding occurred and was reported by law enforcement.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 765243, 765264, 765265, 765268, 765270, 765271, 765275, 765272, 765273, 765274, 765266, 765267, 775681, 765285, 765286, 765287, 765288.