Hurricane Michael developed as a tropical depression in the western Caribbean on October 7th and strengthened into a major hurricane as it moved north through the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall near Mexico Beach on October 10th. Across west central and southwest Florida, Hurricane Michael caused isolated spots of tropical storm force winds on the 9th and 10th, as well as some minor storm…
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Hurricane Michael developed as a tropical depression in the western Caribbean on October 7th and strengthened into a major hurricane as it moved north through the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall near Mexico Beach on October 10th. Across west central and southwest Florida, Hurricane Michael caused isolated spots of tropical storm force winds on the 9th and 10th, as well as some minor storm surge along the coast. The peak wind report in west central and southwest Florida was 46 knots at the NOS station in Cedar Key on the afternoon of the 10th. Storm total rainfall was less than 2 inches across the area. At least 4 waterspouts developed in the outer rain bands, one of which made landfall as a brief tornado in Sarasota County. The total damage cost across west central and southwest Florida was estimated to be around $100,000, mostly from storm surge.
In Levy County, the maximum storm surge at Cedar Key was measured to be 4.52 feet MHHW at 10:36 am EDT on the 10th. This surge on top of the normal tide cycle resulted in a maximum water level of 4.09 feet MHHW at 3:54 pm EDT. The surge resulted in several road closures across the county. Water entered 2 homes and 2 businesses in Cedar Key, and 4 homes in Yankeetown, causing minimal damage to each. The damage amount was roughly estimated at $10,000 per structure impacted.
In Citrus County, the maximum storm surge was estimated to be around 4 feet MHHW during the afternoon of the 10th. This surge resulted in several road closures, and caused a car parked at a boat ramp for Fort Island Beach to be washed into the bay by the rising water.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 10, 7:20 AM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.UPDATE...
The outer rain bands of Michael are moving across the coastal
waters and affecting coastal counties at this time. More scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop with
daytime heating today with wind gusts to tropical storm force
possible in the stronger convection. Otherwise mostly cloudy,
breezy, and humid conditions are expected. Main impact will
continue to be storm surge with an isolated tornado/waterspout
possible, especially across the coastal waters and Nature Coast.
Overall the current forecast is on track and no adjustments needed
at this time.
&&
AVIATION...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected into early tonight with some
occasional IFR conditions in convection. Conditions will then
slowly improve overnight into Thursday morning. Breezy southerly
winds at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts will continue into this
evening then winds will diminish tonight.
&&
MARINE...
Tropical storm conditions will be possible across the Gulf waters
from Venice northward, with hurricane conditions possible over the
offshore waters adjacent to the Nature Coast into this evening.
Extremely hazardous seas are expected across the entire region.
Winds will gradually diminish tonight and Thursday as Michael
moves farther away from the region, but seas will take longer to
subside. High pressure will build back over the area late in the
week with lighter winds and seas returning.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 514 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/
DISCUSSION...
The center of extremely dangerous Major Hurricane Michael is located
about 250 miles west of the NWS TBW office this morning and our
thoughts remain with those directly in the path of this storm.
Locally, we have been dealing with higher than normal water levels,
as expected, but not much else other than cloudiness, breezy
conditions, and a few gusty showers. Very surreal for us with such a
dangerous storm just to our west.
The overall forecast philosophy has not changed much for today and
into Thursday, with the main impact still expected to be storm
surge. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible as well, especially
for our northern counties. Winds today will gradually turn southerly
and then southwest and then west into Thursday as Michael rapidly
pulls away from the region. Rain bands currently over our coastal
waters will persist, with some of them moving over land through the
day. Generally, off and on rainfall with gusty winds into the
tropical storm-force range can be expected along with abundant
cloudiness. Rain chances will linger into the first part of Thursday,
but then drier air will work into the region from the north behind
Michael.
Surface high pressure over the plains region will shift eastward
Friday into the weekend, with some drier air actually looking to
make it over the region. Dew points on Saturday are currently
forecast to be in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. High
temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80s, but it at least
should feel a bit nicer outside. This is short-lived, with dew
points going back up Sunday and into next week. Really no
significant synoptic features to speak of into early next week, as
high pressure aloft builds over the region. Rain chances will be on
the lower side, but still expecting some isolated to scattered
activity.
FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. A typical distribution of scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected. No significant fog is anticipated.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 87 80 88 75 / 80 70 60 10
FMY 88 79 87 76 / 50 40 60 30
GIF 89 78 90 73 / 60 50 50 10
SRQ 86 81 86 76 / 80 60 70 20
BKV 87 80 89 72 / 70 70 50 10
SPG 87 80 88 77 / 80 70 60 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.
Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Hernando-Coastal
Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Inland
Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Pasco-Pinellas.
Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-
Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.
High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.
Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.
Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
PREV DISCUSSION...05/Carlisle and 11/McKaughan
UPPER AIR...19/Hurt
RADAR...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HubbardPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
953 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0906 AM WATER SPOUT 1 W SARASOTA 27.34N 82.57W
10/10/2018 GMZ853 FL PUBLIC
WATER SPOUT REPORTED NEAR CITY ISLAND IN SARASOTA BAY.
&&
JHUBBARDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1129 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1104 AM WATER SPOUT 4 W CEDAR KEY 29.15N 83.10W
10/10/2018 GMZ850 FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WATER SPOUT REPORTED JUST WEST OF CEDAR KEY.
&&
JHUBBARDThe Tampa radar (KTBW), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:22 UTC.
2 storm surge/tide, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
The maximum storm surge was estimated to be around 4 feet MHHW during the afternoon of the 10th. This surge resulted in several road closures, and caused a car parked at a boat ramp for Fort Island Beach to be washed into the bay by the rising water.
The maximum storm surge at Cedar Key was measured to be 4.52 feet MHHW at 10:36 am EDT on the 10th. This surge on top of the normal tide cycle resulted in a maximum water level of 4.09 feet MHHW at 3:54 pm EDT. The surge resulted in several road closures across the county. Water entered 2 homes and 2 businesses in Cedar Key, and 4 homes in Yankeetown, causing minimal damage to each. The damage amount was roughly estimated at $10,000 per structure impacted.
A social media video showed a waterspout briefly making landfall as a tornado near Lido Key.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Florida, 2018Warnings in Florida, October 2018The 2018 hurricane season
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 782738, 782920, 782633.