Heavy Rain in Florida, May 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
355 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today through Friday)...

Scattered storms expected to develop rest of today with movement to
the east at about 5-10 kt producing locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning. Sfc based CAPE were near 2500J/kg Model
soundings suggest some downburst wind potential so some gusty winds
in and near storms can be expected in some of the stronger tstorms.
For the evening...have adjusted POPs a bit focusing mainly in the
between US Highway 301 and I-95 with chances around 40-50 percent.
Most convection should dissipate by around midnight. Patchy fog
possible inland areas toward early morning hours.

Friday...Only weak mid level troughing over the region to start the
day with sfc ridge building a bit westward over the FL panhandle
producing mainly due westerly sfc flow. Lower moisture content
coupled (PWAT near 1.7-1.8 inches) with lack of significant dynamic
forcing will result in mainly scattered afternoon showers and
storms. Highs will rise to the lower 90s most areas...around 90 at
the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze will be delayed. Best chances
over the ern zones due to steering flow from the west-southwest.

.SHORT TERM...Friday night through Sunday night...
Shortwave trough digs southeast through Georgia and the Carolinas on
Saturday. Best chance for late day storms will be across southeast
Ga where strong synoptic lift will exist. Over ne Fl most of the
convection should be near the east coast where the east coast
seabreeze will be located. Strong to severe storms will be possible
by late afternoon/evening as vertical wind shear and instability
increase over se Ga. Another round of storms will be possible on
Sunday as an impulse in the nw flow aloft moves across the area
while a surface cold front approaches from the nw. Temperatures will
be a few degrees above normal with highs reaching the lower 90s and
heat indices near 100.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
East coast trough next week will produce a nw flow aloft over the
area with several embedded impulses. Surface cold front will move
into the area on Monday and stall over northeast Florida into
midweek. Drier air will move into the area early next week which
will bring a break in the shower activity Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures lowered back to normal levels. Models show a vigorous
short wave/closed low dropping into the se with rain chances
returning for Wednesday and Thursday as the frontal zone remains
draped across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop through the
afternoon and evening. Highest chances generally for the northeast
FL TAFS and have placed in tempo group for them through late aftn. A
few showers and storms likely occurring in the 00z-02z time frame
and could affect the terminals but a little too uncertain about
probabilities so VCTS noted around that period. With loss of heating
most convection should dissipate by 04z/05z. Some chance of low cigs
but for now kept a scattered deck possible. Convection will be
isolated to start of Friday mid morning to early afternoon...but
become scattered in the mid to late aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
With surface high pressure south of the area will drift further
south through Friday producing a mainly offshore flow. Pressure
gradient tightens a bit toward the weekend as a frontal system moves
in from the north-northwest. This may result in SCEC conditions on
Saturday and Sunday. Cool front forecast to push through the waters
early Monday with much drier air filtering into the area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents due to easterly swells
and some onshore wind component.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Black Creek at Penny Farms is just about to peak and will fall
through the rest of the day. Will continue to monitor levels at
Worthington Springs on the Santa Fe River with possible river rise
to flood stage Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  73  92 /  30  30  10  40
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  30  30  10  30
JAX  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  10  30
SGJ  72  88  73  89 /  30  30   0  30
GNV  71  89  72  89 /  30  40   0  20
OCF  72  89  71  89 /  30  40   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/Zibura/Corless