A storm force low developed to 980 MB over the central Gulf of Alaska late on the night of 10/18. This storm center deepened to 963 MB near Middleton Island midday on Fri 10/19 causing very strong winds along the outer coast and some light damage and power outages.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A storm force low developed to 980 MB over the central Gulf of Alaska late on the night of 10/18. This storm center deepened to 963 MB near Middleton Island midday on Fri 10/19 causing very strong winds along the outer coast and some light damage and power outages. The maximum gust recorded was 70 mph at Sitka Harbor at 0730 on 10/19.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 18, 2:05 PM AKST, 15 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ A wet and windy night as
well as friday is still in the works as a storm force front moves
over the panhandle. Low level jet strength along the front is
still suggested to be around 50 to 65 kt over most of the
panhandle as the front moves through which is plenty for gusts of
40 to 55 mph at the surface for most areas. Strong wind headlines
have been issued for most of the panhandle as a result. The high
wind watch that was up for the Sitka and Pelican area has been
changed to a strong wind headline as concerns about low level flow
being more offshore here as well as the possibility that the
atmosphere might be a little too stable to allow the really high
winds aloft to shift down to the surface. The northern gulf coast
on the other hand has the double whammy of the initial front
followed by the second wrap coming in later on Friday. Guidance
today has shifted the position of the second wrap farther east
into a more favorable position for high winds at Yakutat. As a
result, the high wind watch that was up for Yakutat has been
upgraded to a warning for gusts up to 65 mph mainly for when the
second wrap comes in on Fri. Winds gradually diminish after
frontal passage through Sat though Lynn Canal and Skagway may need
until Sat night for winds to diminish there. Winds in the gulf
then start to increase again as the next front starts to advance.
Rain will be the other concern with this front. Satellite Precipiable
Water retrievals show a well developed tropical connection with
values of just over an inch in PW throughout the plume (which is
around 150% of normal). Guidance for Water Vapor Transport show
this area of high PW is still aimed for the panhandle. Heaviest
rainfall is expected late tonight into early Friday with total
rainfall expected to be around 1 to 3 inches total. Rain rapidly
changes to convective showers post front as cooler air moves in
behind the system. The cooler air aloft above the warmer waters of
the gulf will destabilize the atmosphere enough that many of the
showers could have heavy rain and some may be strong enough to be
thunderstorms. Thus a large area of isolated thunderstorms is in
the forecast for Fri into Fri night for the gulf and outer coast.
Showers will persist into the weekend gradually diminishing in
intensity and frequency. Rain becomes heavy again into Sat night
for the northern gulf coast and gulf as the next front moves in.
Overall guidance was fairly good with few large scale changes
needed. Main change from yesterday was the inclusion of a weaker
triple point low just to the east of the main stronger low early
Friday. This shifted the strong winds of the second wrap farther
east putting it more in line with Yakutat.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday...Deep
long wave trough centered from the Bering Sea southward through
the western Gulf and into the NPAC will dominate the weather over
SE AK through mid next week. This will lead to several chances for
significant precipitation and wind through the period. The first
such system will be lifting into the western Gulf early Saturday
as a 970 mb surface low. The associated front will drift east and
cross the Panhandle through early Monday. Ensemble IVT
probabilities from GEFS show 70-80% probs of IVT greater than 500
kg/m/s over the southern Panhandle late Sunday into early Monday
which correlates well to moderate to heavy rainfall. This system
looks to have an extremely long fetch of moisture stretching all
the way into the western NPAC so there will likely be additional
much needed rainfall to the drought stricken southern Panhandle
with this system. GEFS ensemble average QPF for Metlakatla Monday
through Thursday is around 3 inches which is good news for these
areas.
Strong zonal Pacific jet with a core of around 160kt will
broaden the long wave pattern over the Gulf of Alaska after the
Monday system. This will push the storm track further south next
week with the potential for one or two significant storms in the
SE Gulf while allowing temperatures to cool a bit over the
northern Panhandle with a bit more cyclonic flow aloft. Model
agreement is decent in the long wave pattern but quite poor in
resolving individual systems after Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The high rain rates expected with the strong front
coming in will cause local rivers and streams to rise with the
greatest rises likely on smaller basins. Some of the smaller
rivers and streams may reach bankfull mid day Fri before the
higher rain rates move out of the area.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
AKZ020-024-026.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday morning for AKZ027.
Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
AKZ025.
Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Friday
afternoon for AKZ022.
Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Friday morning
for AKZ023.
Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Friday through Friday afternoon for
AKZ021.
Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
AKZ028.
Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ018-019.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ017.
Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Friday through Friday morning for
AKZ017.
Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-043-051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-021-031>036-041-042-053.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013.
&&
EAL/DEL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds hammered the coast between Salisbury Sound and Cape Fairweather on the morning of 10/19. Maximum measured gust was 68 mph. No damage was reported.
Strong winds hammered the outer coast of Baranof Island on the morning of 10/19. Maximum measured gust was 84 mph by the Marine Exchange observation in Sitka Harbor. No damage was reported.
Yakutat had high wind observed on the morning of 10/19 but no damage reported. Peak gust at the Airport was 58 mph. Gusts to 75 mph were measured at Deception Hills near Dry Bay at 0825 on 10/19.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 782423, 782425, 782409.