A slow-moving upper level low pressure system brought widespread rains to North and Central Texas late in the week, aggravating the ongoing river flooding and creating more minor flooding across parts of the region.
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The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A slow-moving upper level low pressure system brought widespread rains to North and Central Texas late in the week, aggravating the ongoing river flooding and creating more minor flooding across parts of the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 19, 11:56 AM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ Widespread showers with prevailing low-MVFR cigs will prevail this afternoon with periodic dips to IFR. In general, vsbys will remain MVFR, but will fall to around 1-2 SM in any of the heavier convective elements that move across the airfields. Surface winds are generally out of the north-northwest, although southerly winds are noted from Bowie and points north and west. It's possible that winds become southerly for a time across the Metroplex sites, although wind speeds should remain under 3-5 kts or so. The brunt of large-scale ascent will begin to pivot east of the Metroplex later this evening, which will bring an end to the rain chances by about 20/03z. However, copious moisture will remain locked in under 925-850 mb, and this should result in the proliferation of IFR cigs this evening and overnight. Conditions may gradually begin to improve around daybreak Saturday as some drier air associated with a reinforcing cold front pushes south of the Red River. That said, IFR or even LIFR conditions will probably continue, on a TEMPO basis, through mid-morning until cigs lift to MVFR and eventually VFR. Winds seem a bit too elevated to warrant indicating BR, but we'll monitor upstream trends and model guidance this evening. Similar trends are expected at Waco, although rain chances will remain high enough to warrant at least a VCSH mention through the mid-morning hours. Carlaw && .UPDATE... /Issued 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/ The inherited forecast is in good shape, but we sent a quick update to clean up the near-term PoP grids to account for the next batch of showers streaming north out of the Hill Country. A broad region of isentropic ascent will continue across much of the region today leading to widespread light to moderate rainfall. Overall, instability is lacking with MUCAPE values generally running a few hundred J/kg or less across our south and eastern counties. This should tend to limit both the thunder and the heavier rainfall potential today. That said, model guidance continues to indicate an increase in 925-850mb frontogenesis through the afternoon hours from near Temple through DFW and Paris as the associated thermal gradients tighten up. The presence of marginally negative saturated EPV values indicate that slantwise instability will be present near the zone of maximized frontogenesis, which could act to locally enhance rainfall rates this afternoon and evening with some banding potential. The latest HREF similarly indicates isolated amounts in excess of 2-3" through this evening near this favored zone from Temple and towards the Metroplex. Overall, the risk today should be in the form of gradual rises in area creeks and rivers which remain swollen from the recent deluges, although some isolated instances of flash flooding can't be discounted given the above-mentioned factors. We'll leave the Flash Flood Watch in tact, but will probably be able to cancel a handful of the western counties this afternoon. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ Rain and subsequent flooding are the primary forecast messages during the short term forecast period. The rain and clouds will mean that temperatures will remain below normal. Fortunately, a respite from the rain is anticipated late tonight and into Saturday for some areas of North and Central Texas. Widespread showers continue this morning across parts of the Big Country in response to deep isentropic ascent within the 295K to 310K theta surfaces. While the areal coverage is high, overall rain rates have been generally unimpressive (only a few hundredths of an inch over a 3-6 hour time period) thanks to dry air below 880mb as sampled by the 00 UTC FWD RAOB. With time, however, moistening of this dry pocket should occur and greater rain rates are anticipated as we go through the morning hours. Highest rain chances will initially be across the Big Country where low level WAA/isentropic ascent is most pronounced. Towards the noontime and after hours, decent low level FGEN is expected across parts of North and Central Texas. There has been somewhat of a shift in some guidance regarding the placement of the 925mb FGEN. Latest deterministic model guidance elongates the greatest low level frontogenetical circulation from extreme eastern parts of the Hill Country, all the way to the eastern Red River Valley. Since the coverage of low level ascent seems larger and with hi-res NWP advertising a broader area of QPF >0.01, PoPs were adjusted upward into the 90-100% range across a decent portion of North and Central Texas. Antecedent conditions are most favorable for what should mainly be creek, small stream and river/lake flooding across Central Texas where 7-day rainfall totals are pretty impressive. On average, areas west of I-35 and south of I-20 have seen between 6" to 8" of rainfall during the past week or so. Despite the potential for slightly higher QPF than previously thought across the eastern Red River Valley, the current Flash Flood Watch was not expanded in areal coverage to include these locales as recent rainfall totals have NOT been as impressive as other areas. While rainfall rates farther south likely won't warrant a true "Flash Flood" situation, flooding of small streams, creeks and river/lakes will remain a threat. The one exception that could result in a slightly higher rainfall rates will be where deeper convection develops. At this time, however, widespread thunder looks low as MUCAPEs are generally in the 100 to 200 J/kg range mainly south of I-20. I'll keep a mention of isolated thunder across Central Texas to address this, but the threat for thunder looks low. Regardless, we'll keep the current Flash Flood Watch going, but it's possible that some of it may be cancelled later this morning as west winds in the wake of a diffuse boundary invade the area. Rain chances will continue to shift south and eastward through the day with rain chances falling through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect another day with afternoon temperatures running nearly 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be in the upper 50s across the eastern Red River Valley to low 60s elsewhere. Winds will become westerly and eventually northerly with the passage of a diffuse frontal boundary through the day. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/ /Saturday through the End of Next Week/ A deepening upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and the next upper low over California will place a shortwave ridge over the central part of the CONUS including North and Central Texas at the start of the period. Lingering showers over the southern half of the region will come to an end on Saturday due to increasing subsidence associated with the ridge, resulting in a short reprieve from the recent rainy weather. High temperatures may actually reach 70 degrees Saturday afternoon as clouds disperse and plentiful sun shines through. Good radiative cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s and 50s Saturday night. The ridge will weaken and shift eastward on Sunday as the West Coast low also advances east. The resulting southwest flow aloft will usher in a thickening layer of mid and high clouds, which should keep high temperatures in the lower and mid 60s Sunday afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase Sunday night and Monday as the western system continues its slow and steady approach from the west. Moisture and lift will be sufficient for low rain chances Monday and Monday night, primarily across the western and southern counties. Rain chances will continue to increase on Tuesday, with the highest POPs arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday in conjunction with the strongest lift associated with the upper level system. Instability will be meager, but should be just enough to warrant the addition of isolated thunderstorms for the Tuesday night-Wednesday timeframe. Models continue to indicate the possible addition of mid and upper level Pacific moisture associated with Eastern-North Pacific tropical cyclone development, which can often enhance rainfall totals (similar to last weekend's system). Fortunately, the most recent guidance has backed off tropical development in this region. There will be a possibility of added flooding regardless due to the saturated soil conditions across the region, but the lack of Pacific moisture would at least present a lower-end threat in comparison. We will continue to monitor this development as we get though the weekend. The upper low will transition into an open wave as it continues east across the Plains. Rain chances will come to an end on Thursday as subsidence builds in on the back side of the shortwave trough. Medium range model data supports a drier pattern as northwest flow aloft develops towards the end of next week, with generally dry and seasonable weather in store through the following weekend and perhaps beyond. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 56 71 50 64 / 100 70 20 5 5 Waco 64 59 69 53 66 / 100 80 50 5 5 Paris 59 54 69 47 60 / 100 80 10 5 5 Denton 61 55 71 48 63 / 100 50 10 5 5 McKinney 60 55 69 48 61 / 100 70 10 5 5 Dallas 64 56 71 51 64 / 100 70 20 5 5 Terrell 64 56 72 51 65 / 100 90 20 5 5 Corsicana 65 57 68 51 64 / 100 90 40 5 5 Temple 63 58 68 54 66 / 100 90 60 5 5 Mineral Wells 62 56 68 48 62 / 100 50 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ115>119- 129>134-141>146-156>161-174. && 90/79
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200845- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Isolated storms will be possible south of a Lampasas to Canton line today. Severe weather is not expected, but storms will be capable of pockets of moderate to brief heavy rain. Elsewhere, widespread showers will also be capable of occasional periods of moderate rain which may aggravate any ongoing flooding of creeks, small streams and rivers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Rain chances will linger across Central Texas early Saturday morning. Additional rain will likely aggravate any ongoing flooding of creeks, small streams and rivers. Storm chances increase again on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday, with a renewed threat for additional flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported various street closures due to flooding across northwestern Tarrant County.
Prosper Fire and Rescue reported several roads temporarily closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 789341, 789344.