High Wind in Texas, February 6 to 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of low clouds and or fog will produce prevailing or tempo
MVFR and IFR conditions at KMAF and KINK through 16z. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the next 24
hours. Light winds this morning will become west to southwest at
15 to 25 mph and gusty by late morning through this afternoon.
Winds will be westerly tonight at generally 10 to 15 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture has once again returned to the eastern and
central Permian Basin. Areas of fog are forming with visibilities
in most locations holding above 1/2SM, though MAF is currently at
1/4SM. Believe dense fog will be too spotty to warrant issuing an
advisory at this time but should LIFR VIS become more widespread
an update may be needed and will continue to monitor over the next
several hours.

Winds are still expected to pick up in the Guadalupe Mountains
today and now it appears that after a lull overnight, they will
pick back up again tomorrow. That created the dilemma of whether
to allow the warning to expire tonight and reissue for tomorrow or
just drag the warning into tomorrow and make mention of the
overnight drop. Felt it would be less confusing to just extend the
warning into tomorrow so that is what was done.

Zonal flow the next several days will keep highs well above normal
into Wednesday before a week cold front arrives Thursday, only
bringing highs back down to normal for a day before they go back
up for next weekend. Zonal flow will also eliminate any chance
for precipitation for the next seven days.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning is still in effect today for the northwestern
Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the upper Trans Pecos.
Again, this appears to be a low end event with humidities and
winds both marginally reaching Red Flag criteria but everyone
should still be careful with outside flames. The fire danger
threat will be elevated again tomorrow, but winds are expected to
be slightly lower than today and so will not meet Red Flag
criteria. If a Fire Danger Statement is needed, it will be issued
tomorrow morning.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       81  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         82  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  82  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  42  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          74  37  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 7 PM CST /6
     PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

&&

10/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 AM CST MON FEB 6 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
523 AM CST MON FEB 6 2017 /423 AM MST MON FEB 6 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN LOCALIZED AREAS...IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS
REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 AM CST FOR MIDLAND...ECTOR AND WINKLER COUNTIES OF WEST TEXAS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE VAN HORN
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM MID DAY TODAY THROUGH MID EVENING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT, ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES, WARNINGS, ADVISORIES,
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND, CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND