A series of fronts brought moderate to heavy rainfall across Northwest Oregon, resulting flooding on many rivers across the area over the next several days.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A series of fronts brought moderate to heavy rainfall across Northwest Oregon, resulting flooding on many rivers across the area over the next several days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 5:22 AM PST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
521 AM PST Mon Feb 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...The system which brought a wide variety of weather to the
region Sunday and Sunday night - ranging from heavy snow at Astoria
to the wettest February day in Newport since the 19th century - is
now pushing inland toward the Northern Rockies. Cold air behind the
system will bring numerous showers today, with snow levels hovering
between 500 and 1000 feet for much of the district. A warm front will
approach Oregon from the southwest tonight and Tuesday, spreading
precipitation northward into southern portions of our forecast area
by Tue morning. This system will be overrunning cold air left behind
by the previous system, so there is another chance for low elevation
snow...primarily south of Salem...on Tuesday. A stronger, wetter
system is expected to spread more rain and mountain snow across the
forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. Cold air left behind in and
near the Gorge will bring the potential for mixed precipitation as
far west as the Portland metro area at the onset...before
temperatures rise above freezing. Active weather will continue
through Friday, but high pressure may bring drier weather for the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...The stalled frontal zone
which brought heavy rain to much of Northwest Oregon and heavy snow
to the North Coast and much of SW Washington is exiting the region,
accelerating E-NE into the Northern Rockies. The cold upper trough
behind the system will rotate onshore into SW WA/NW OR today,
bringing numerous showers...snow levels well down into the hills...
and the potential for thunder for areas north of Salem. With the 12z
Salem sounding still showing a freezing level of 2000 feet and the
coldest air aloft yet to move onshore, snow levels will probably
hover in the 500-1000 ft range today. The heavier rain showers will
also likely bring some small hail, which may even briefly coat the
ground at times. Snow and/or hail/graupel accumulation will probably
be 1-2 inches or less in the hills between 500-1500 feet, but this is
still enough to warrant continuation of the snow advisory for areas
such as Portland's West Hills and Salem's South Hills. Snow/freezing
levels will be slightly higher toward Eugene, and it appears there
will be a little less QPF which would make it more difficult to reach
advisory criteria there.
The best chance for organized, heavier shower activity will be this
morning as the cold core aloft moves onshore. SPC analysis shows
temps as low as -35 deg C within the cold core, which pushes the
temperature needed for deep convection to the tropopause down into
the upper 30s deg F. The tropopause mentioned is probably better
called a pseudo-tropopause, since it is down near 500 mb and there is
another, less sharp inversion closer to 300 mb. Regardless, it will
serve as a major cap for any convection, keeping tops in the 13-16
kft range. Normally this would be a bit too shallow for much charge
separation and lightning, but the air mass is so cold that there will
probably be good lift through the -12 to -20 deg C layer and thus at
least a slight chance of lightning north of Salem. Decided to expand
the coverage of the thunder mention into the PDX metro area as a
result.
The cold air left behind by this system will also come into play
Tuesday, as a warm front lifts NE into Oregon from the Pacific. While
the deepest moisture and best dynamics associated with this system
appear to be headed for California, isentropic lift associated with
the warm front will likely spread precipitation northward into Eugene
Tuesday morning. Models then diverge in how much further north they
want to bring the front later Tue/Tue night. Meanwhile, the air mass
remains marginally cold enough to bring at least a threat of snow
north of the front. However most models are a bit lacking on the
amount of moisture that makes it far enough into the cold air...with
most showing 0.10-0.15 inch north of Eugene. Model soundings are very
close to showing a snow sounding in Eugene as precipitation develops
Tue morning, so we will have to at least watch this closely for the
potential of an inch or two of snow in the lowlands primarily south
of Salem.
The 00z and now 06z GFS have shown some hint at a deformation band
lingering over the Willamette Valley Tue night; the 00z ECMWF shows
some signs of this as well, albeit weaker. The frontal zone will also
stall in this general location until the next, stronger system
approaches the coast Wed. Precipitation is expected to increase as
Wed progresses. A stronger surge of S-SW winds aloft will occur with
this system, which will push a warm nose at 850 mb northward across
the the forecast area Wed into Thu. Meanwhile easterly gradients will
be increasing through Gorge...inducing more east wind and low-level
cold air. As such, the threat associated with this system will likely
be more of the freezing rain variety, and potentially limited more to
areas in and near the Columbia Gorge. Over the past couple forecast
cycles, we have expanded the mention of freezing rain from the Gorge
westward into the PDX metro, showing more certainty Troutdale
eastward into the Gorge.
A quick note about yesterday's system...the impacts ranged from 3-4
inches of snow along the North Oregon Coast on the cold side, to a
high temperature of 63 degrees in Roseburg on the warm side, to
extremely heavy rainfall in between. For example, the 4.44 inches of
rain recorded in Newport was the heaviest February rainfall since the
19th century...when 4.00 inches fell on Feb 8 1899. PDX Airport also
had their wettest Feb day on record with 2.19 inches; the previous
record was 2.16 inches on Feb 8 1996. More info on this in the record
event report (PDXRERPQR) issued earlier in the shift. A public
information statement (PDXPNSPQR) has also been issued with snowfall
totals from yesterday's storm. Weagle
.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...
Wednesday Night Through Sunday...GFS and EC in good agreement showing
a deep low well off the PacNW coast Wednesday evening, with a warm
front lifting north through NW Oregon. Models lift the warm front
north into WA by Thursday. Air mass overrunning the front is rather
warm and wet, so will carry likely to categorical pops with the front
Wednesday night, but will need to retain at least a chance for some
freezing rain persisting in the Gorge and Hood River Valley as low
level flow remains offshore through the Gorge. Expect the threat for
freezing rain to end if and when the warm front lifts north. The warm
air mass south of the front will drive snow levels up above the
passes Wednesday night and Thursday before a cold front pushes east
through the forecast area Thursday. Will keep pops high for the cold
front Thursday. Models move another shortwave through Friday to keep
the chances for showers elevated through Friday. Ridging Saturday and
Sunday bring the promise of a couple of drier days for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Upper level disturbance off the coast will push
inland this am. This will maintain a cool and unstable onshore
flow, with VFR and occasional MVFR with showers with small hail.
snow levels stay low today, generally 1000 to 2000 ft. Can not
rule out an isolated thunderstorm this am along the coast into
the coastal mtns, and possibly into the interior north of Salem.
Showers will decrease rapidly this evening. But with light winds
and cool air mass, good chance of fog or pockets of stratus
forming, mainly inland.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR into this evening. But will
see occasional showers with MVFR cigs. While not likely can not
rule out an isolated thunderstorm around and to the north of KPDX
after 17z. Showers decrease after 01z as air mass stabilizes.
Rockey.
&&
.MARINE...at 2 am, another weak low pres area was about 300 miles
off the north Oregon coast. This low will push onshore this am,
with gusty southwest to westerly winds. Strongest gusts will be
in and around the showers through mid-afternoon today. Seas still
running 8 to 10 ft this am, but these will gradually subside
through early this evening. Will maintain current small craft
advisories for seas today, and for winds into this evening.
Next system will approach region later Wed, with increasing east
to southeasterly winds. Models have varied on the overall
strength of this system, but gale force wind appears likely later
Wed night and Thu. Winds subside a bit later Thu night, but stay
gusty into Fri then will ease back under 15 kt Fri evening.
Overall seas stay in 5 to 6 ft range for Tue and Wed. But as
next system arrives, winds and seas will build again. Looks like
a good bet that overall seas will build back up to 10 to 15 ft
Wed night, and peak near 20 ft on Thu. Seas will gradually
subside on Fri, dropping back under 10 ft early Sat. /Rockey.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Central
Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Willamette Valley-
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro
Area-Lower Columbia-Western Columbia River Gorge above 700 ft.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for
Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Northern Oregon Cascades.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Greater
Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Western
Columbia River Gorge-Willapa Hills above 700 ft.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for South
Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 PM PST this evening for
Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out
60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
Florence OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 11 AM
this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
615 AM PST MON FEB 06 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 AM DEBRIS FLOW 2 N SKAMOKAWA 46.30N 123.45W
02/06/2017 WAHKIAKUM WA BROADCAST MEDIA
KOIN TV REPORTS LANDSLIDE CLOSING WA HIGHWAY 4 JUST NORTH
OF SKAMOKAWA NEAR WOLD RD.
&&
SWEAGLEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused the Pudding River near Aurora to flood. The river crested at 24.16 feet, which is 2.16 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Marys River near Philomath to flood. The river crested at 20.54 feet, which is 0.54 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Wilson River near Tillamook to flood. The river crested at 15.76 feet, which is 3.76 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Nehalem River near Foss to flood. The river crested at 18.36 feet, which is 3.36 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Upper Nehalem River near Vernonia to flood. The river crested at 12.77 feet, which is 0.77 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Siuslaw River near Mapleton to flood. The river crested at 18.01 feet, which is 0.01 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Tualatin River near Dilley to flood. The river crested at 17.77 feet, which is 0.27 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Luckiamute River near Suver to flood. The river crested at 27.42 feet, which is 0.42 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the South Yamhill River near McMinnville to flood. The river crested at 50.15 feet, which is 0.15 feet above flood stage.
Heavy rain caused the Tualatin River near Farmington to flood. The river crested at 33.24 feet, which is 1.24 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 682425, 682419, 682421, 682420, 682422, 682423, 682593, 682424, 682426, 682594.