Wildfire in Hawaii, February 6 to 8, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1003 AM HST Mon Feb 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty southwesterly winds will continue ahead of and along a cold
front moving down the island chain through tonight. The front will
move through Oahu and Molokai today then down to Maui and the Big
Island tonight, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm or
two as it moves through. High pressure and drier conditions will
overspread the state Tuesday through Thursday night. Another cold
front is expected to push down the island chain late Friday night
through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A cold front pushed through Kauai overnight and is moving onto
Oahu this morning. The main impact associated with the front has
been strong and gusty southwesterly winds ahead of and along the
feature, especially to the east of terrain. The front is somewhat
shallow, as most of the moisture confined below 15,000 ft, but
there is some embedded convection with tops around 25,000 ft
passing just north of Oahu. The mid to upper level trough driving
the front is producing wind shear that led to some brief stronger
wind signatures along the front near Kauai overnight. The chance
of seeing these signatures again along the front are rather low,
but we will continue to monitor. Winds have already decreased on
Kauai, and advisory level winds will drop off behind the front on
Oahu later today. The front also dropped roughly 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall along west facing terrain of Kauai and mainly less than
one half of an inch elsewhere. The front is moving onto the north
shore and Waianae coast of Oahu at this time, and we expect
similar rainfall totals as the feature moves overhead through much
of the afternoon.

The front will bring clouds and showers to Maui during the
evening then move down to the Big Island late tonight. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for Maui through midnight, where gusty
southwest winds will persist, but as the weakening front advances
to the Big Island, winds are expected to be below advisory
strength over lower elevations. The western half of the state will
under a cooler, moderate post-frontal northwest flow with dew
points dropping into the low 60s. There will still be a chance of
mainly light showers along northwest facing slopes, while other
areas will be rather dry.

Conditions will be more active across the high summits of the Big
Island. A High Wind Warning is in place through Tuesday night, but
with the upper level trough likely slow to clear the area, the
warning may need to be extended through Wednesday. There may also
be some winter weather on the summits tonight and early Tuesday as
the front reaches the Big Island. Given the depth of the moisture
along the front, clouds may not be deep enough to generate snow,
and odds are greater for some freezing rain at the highest
elevations.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
The cold front will exit to the east of the Big Island Tuesday
night, with high pressure then racing by to the north of the
islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. The area of high pressure
will shift quickly east of the state Thursday and Thursday night,
with the ridge axis on the western extent of the high settling
southward and over the island chain. This is expected to result in
a period of drier weather, with the best chances for rain expected
across windward sections of the Big Island where some lingering
moisture from the old front will remain.

The GFS and ECMWF both show another cold front moving through the
islands late in the work week and into the upcoming weekend. The
models have come into better agreement on timing, now indicating
an increase of showers across western parts of the state by late
Friday, with the band of showers associated with the front then
moving down the island chain Friday night through Saturday night
with conditions then drying back out on Sunday. It appears that
this next front could bring another round of heavier showers and
gusty winds to the island chain once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will sweep down the Hawaiian Island chain over the
next 24 to 36 hours bringing strong gusty winds and rain showers
to the state. Expect scattered MVFR with isolated IFR conditions
along with mountain obscurations due to low ceilings along the
frontal band, with improving conditions west to east behind the
front.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over
Kauai, Oahu, Lanai and Molokai at this time. Mountain
obscurations will likely spread to Maui at some point later today
or this evening.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to isolated severe
turbulence across northern through eastern areas of all Hawaiian
Islands due to the strong winds. The winds will taper off behind
the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough conditions will continue across the Hawaiian waters Today
due to strong west to southwest winds and rough short-period seas
associated with a cold front moving down the island chain. These
conditions are expected over the marine zones that are typically
protected during strong trade winds or from large northwest
swells. In addition to the rough boating conditions, rough surf
along exposed south and west facing shores is be expected.

The latest model guidance remains in agreement through mid week and
depicts this front clearing Oahu during the evening, Maui County
late tonight, and the Big Island Tuesday into Wednesday. Moderate
to locally fresh northwest winds will fill in behind the front,
which should translate to the very rough seas easing. Winds will
quickly shift out of the north on Wednesday, then out of the
east-southeast Thursday as another cold front approaches the
region. As this front approaches, expect similar conditions to
develop once again across the waters Friday into the weekend with
strong southwest winds and rough seas returning.

A large west-northwest swell (300-315 deg) associated with a very
active pattern across the northwest Pacific will fill in and
steadily rise through the day, then persist through mid week before
trending down. This source will result in a long-duration event with
surf reaching advisory levels for exposed north and west facing
shores today and up to warning-levels Tuesday through Wednesday.
Wave run-up issues could become a possibility through this period,
which could translate to overwash onto the typical vulnerable
coastal roadways Tuesday through Wednesday, mainly at and around the
times of high tide.

For the outlook into the upcoming weekend, another large west-
northwest swell (300 deg) is expected to fill in and impact the
local area with surf reaching advisory levels along north and west
facing shores Friday night through Saturday. This source will be
associated with a developing hurricane-force low currently centered
just east of Japan that is forecast to lift northeastward toward the
Aleutian islands through mid week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu-Molokai-Lanai-
Kona-South Big Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big
Island Interior.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Niihau-Kauai
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu
Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward
Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Wednesday
for Kona.

Wind Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Maui.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big
Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

&&

Public Short Term...Wroe
Public Long Term...Jelsema
Aviation...Foster
Marine...Gibbs/Wroe

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1127 AM HST MON FEB 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KANEOHE                 21.41N 157.79W
02/05/2017                   HONOLULU           HI   NEWSPAPER

            DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT PRODUCED POWER
            OUTAGES ON MAINLY WINDWARD OAHU FROM KAHUKU TO KAILUA AND
            IN HAWAII KAI. MORE THAN 25000 CUSTOMERS WERE AFFECTED.
            MEDIA ALSO QUOTED FIRE DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS AS RESPONDING
            TO EIGHT INCIDENTS OF ROOF DAMAGE IN THE SAME AREA.

&&

DWROE