High Surf in Puerto Rico, March 6 to 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
852 PM AST Sun Mar 5 2017

.UPDATE...
The Rest of Tonight...Variably cloudy skies are expected with
increasing shower activity across the region as a frontal
boundary and the associated prefrontal trough moves southward
across the forecast area. Under a northeast wind flow showers will
move southwestward from the Atlantic waters, initially across the
northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico as well as across
Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and later over the
interior and southern sections of Puerto Rico. The shower activity
should be moderate to heavy at times, but due to the rapid
movement of the showers the total rainfall accumulation will be
minimal.

Monday...Conditions are expected to become breezy with increasing
cloudiness and better chance for shower activity as the frontal
boundary remains over the region. The high pressure ridge
building across the western Atlantic will increase the northeast
trade wind flow and consequently tighten the local pressure
gradient. As a result of this scenario, expect a somewhat wetter
pattern across the local area due to increasing low level moisture
convergence at least through Monday Night.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA associated with an approaching frontal boundary
and associated prefrontal trough will continue to produce VCSH
across the Leeward, USVI and TJSJ taf sites overnight. Moisture
is forecast to increase after 06/04Z and SHRA will become more
frequent and possibly affecting the terminals. Brief periods of
SCT-BKN ceilings near FL020 and FL080 are possible at
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ aft 06/04z. E-NE Sfc winds will increase
at 15 to 20 with higher gusts along the coastal areas aft 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and Seas will continue to increase overnight and
early Tuesday morning resulting in hazardous marine conditions.
Therefore, small craft advisories are now in effect for most of
the local waters. Beachgoers can expect a moderate to high risk
of rip currents tonight through most of the work week. Please
refer to the latest surf zone forecast issued by the National
Weather Service WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM AST Sun Mar 5 2017/

SYNOPSIS...Weakly induced surface trough across the region and
High pressure ridge continued to build and spread eastward across
the western Atlantic. Weather conditions will gradually become
breezy and showery with increasing cloudiness on Monday and Tuesday
as a surface frontal boundary and the associated prefrontal trough
sinks southwards across the region, and the local pressure gradient
tightens. Overall breezy conditions and a seasonal weather pattern
is expected by Wednesday and the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION...

Short Term / rest of Today through Tuesday /... Variably cloudy
skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear across the islands
by late afternoon and early evening with decreasing showers. However
by late night and early morning the increasing northeast trade winds
will increase ow level moisture convergence and bring patches of low
level moisture with passing showers to the north and east coastal
sections of the PR and the northern U.S Virgin Islands.

For the rest of Monday and Tuesday conditions are expected to
become breezy with increasing cloudiness and better chance for
shower activity as the frontal boundary and associated moisture
sinks south across the islands and coastal waters. The high pressure
ridge building across the western Atlantic will increase the northeast
trade wind flow and consequently tighten the local pressure gradient.
As a result of this scenario,expect a somewhat wetter pattern across
the local area due to increasing low level moisture convergence at
least through Tuesday.

Long Term / Wednesday through Sunday /...
As the remnants of the frontal boundary sinks further south of the
region while dissipating, a drier air mass will begin to filter in
by Wednesday and improve through rest of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. Recent model guidance still suggest the brisk
northeasterly winds will continue to advect patches of low level
moisture across the local islands at times especially during the
late evening and early morning hours. Present long term model
guidance also suggest that the migratory surface high pressure north
of the region will create a tight pressure gradient with northeast
winds to prevail much of the forecast period. At upper levels, a
a weak mid to upper level polar trough is expected to move north of
the region Wednesday through Thursday with a ridge pattern building
across the region from the west late Friday and into the weekend.

As a result, expect breezy conditions and a seasonable weather
pattern with trade wind showers at times across windward areas
followed by some locally induced afternoon showers across Leeward
areas Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Cool and refreshing
early morning and daytime temperatures can be expected under the
prevailing northeasterly winds.

AVIATION...In general, VFR conditions are expected through at least 05/22z.
However, trade winds showers are expected over/in the vicinity of
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TJMZ/TISX. Moisture is forecast to increase aft 05/23z
and SHRA will become more frequent and possibly affecting the terminals.
Brief prds of SCT-BKN ceilings nr FL020 and FL080 are possible at
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ aft 06/00z. E-NE Sfc winds at 10-15 knots with
higher gusts expected this afternoon, increasing at 15 to 20 with
higher gusts along the coastal areas aft 05/23z.

MARINE...Winds and Seas are expected to increase overnight resulting
in hazardous marine conditions. Therefore, small craft advisories are
in effect for the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters and the Mona
passage the rest of this afternoon. Small craft operators should exercise
caution elsewhere. After 8 pm AST tonight, small craft advisories will
be in effect for most of the local waters.

Beachgoers can expect a moderate to high risk of rip currents
tonight through most of the work week. Please refer to the latest
surf zone forecast issued by the National Weather Service WFO San
Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  81  74  81 /  60  60  50  50
STT  73  83  73  83 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Monday for Culebra-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-
     Western Interior.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Monday for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 PM AST Tuesday for
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Monday for Coastal Waters
     of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Tuesday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean
     Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF
     Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to
     17N.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 PM AST Tuesday for
     Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern
     USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI
     Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

72/09

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
520 AM AST domingo 5 de marzo de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-060930-
San Juan y vecindad-noreste-sureste-este interior-
norte central-interior central- Ponce y vecindad-Noroeste-
oeste interior-Mayaguez y vecindad-suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas costeras y lejos de la costa del Atlantico y aguas
costeras del Caribe-
520 AM AST domingo 5 de marzo de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos alrededor de 20 mph son posibles a
traves de las areas costeras y alrededor de 20 nudos sobre las aguas
locales.

.Olas...Se espera oleaje picado y peligroso de hasta 7 pies a traves
de las aguas mar afuera y oleaje de hasta 6 pies a traves de las
aguas cercanas.

.Corrientes submarinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
submarinas para la mayor parte de las playas locales hoy, excepto
para la costa oeste.

.Dias dos a siete...lunes a sabado

Oleaje picado y riesgo moderado a alto de corrientes submarinas
son posibles durante los proximos dias. Se espera que los vientos
aumenten nuevamente tarde esta noche. Como resultado, se pronostica
que las condiciones maritimas se deterioren rapidamente lunes y
continuaran peligroso hasta por lo menos mediados de la semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar fuertes
vientos y corrientes submarinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia
en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-060930-
San Tomas, San John e islas adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cerca de la costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras
adyacentes del Caribe-
520 AM AST sabado 5 de marzo de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos alrededor de 20 mph son posibles a
traves de las areas costeras y alrededor de 20 nudos sobre las aguas
locales.

.Olas...Se espera oleaje picado y peligroso de hasta 7 pies a traves
de las aguas mar afuera y oleaje de hasta 6 pies a traves de las
aguas cercanas.

.Corrientes submarinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
submarinas para la mayor parte de las playas locales hoy.

.Dias dos a siete...lunes a sabado

Oleaje picado y riesgo moderado a alto de corrientes submarinas
son posibles durante los proximos dias. Se esperan que los vientos
aumenten nuevamente tarde esta noche. Como resultado, se pronostica
que las condiciones maritimas se deterioren rapidamente lunes y
continuaran peligrosos hasta por lo menos mediados de la semana
proxima.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar fuertes
vientos y corrientes submarinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia
en San Juan.