Another in a series of fronts brought heavy snow to a few locations in south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Another in a series of fronts brought heavy snow to a few locations in south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 9:27 PM PST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
927 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2017
.UPDATE...Latest forecast for the Pit river in Modoc county show
the river reaching flood stage earlier that previous forecast
indicated, and have issued a Flood warning for the Pit river at
Canby. Sven
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2017/
DISCUSSION...Current satellite and radar images are already showing
the white of the eyes with precipitation already starting to reach
the northern California/southwest Oregon coast. This will increase
over time and will spread into northern California early this
evening and later this evening and tonight in Oregon. Colder air is
still in place and snow levels are lower. This will result in the
potential for significant snow in northern California early this
evening and later this evening for the Oregon Cascades and eastside.
Thus have issued a winter storm warning for portions of these areas.
The timing of when the warm from moves through and snow levels come
up will is going to be a key factor in storm total snow. For
example, if the warm front lifts north quicker, then snowfall
accumulations will end up lower than what's currently forecast.
Right now, the models are in pretty good agreement with the timing
of the warm frontal passage. In addition we could be looking at a 4-
6 hour period of heavy snow with snowfall rates anywhere between 1-3
inches per hour in the Siskiyous, Cascades, portions of the eastside
and the Warners east of Alturas.
The tricky part west of the Cascades is whether or not we'll get any
snow down to the lower passes north of Medford tonight. Model
guidance is divided in just how low snow levels will be, with the
GFS/ECMWF staying up above 2500 feet for the event. The NAM12 is
notably colder as precipitation arrives this evening and with some
wet-bulb effect expected, heavier precipitation rates could lower
the snow level more than the global models indicate. Right now, it
looks like there could be a slushy inch of wet snow at Sexton,
Smith, Stage Road and Canyon Creek passes before precipitation
changes to rain by Tuesday morning. It isn't out of the realm of
possibility that we see snow reach all the way down to places like
Hayes Hill Summit and Barton Road on I-5, which are both closer to
1500 feet. These areas have all been known to do that from time to
time. Please see NPWMFR for more details.
Once the warm front moves through, snow levels will shoot up rather
quickly to 6500 to 7000 feet early to mid morning Tuesday in
northern California and late morning or early afternoon in Oregon
and snow will quickly change over to rain. Precipitation will
gradually decrease Tuesday afternoon and we should catch a relative
break in rainfall Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Another round of moderate to heavy precipitation with tropical
connection could impact the area Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. Snow levels will be high, so the only areas that
may get impacted from road snow should be around Crater Lake. Also we
could be dealing with another round of moderate to strong winds at
the coast and east of the Cascades. This is still a ways out so the
details could change. there could be a concern for flooding on
creeks and streams. Mainstem rivers will heed to be monitored
closely. Given we have several headlines out, decided to hold off
on any wind headlines at this time. -Petrucelli
Long Term...Friday through Monday...By Friday, the atmospheric
river from the short term will have sagged well south of us.
However, the main upper low and its attendant secondary cold front
will move through Friday and bring another round of moderate
precipitation. Snow levels will be much lower than preceding days,
dropping to 4500 feet Friday morning and then 3500 feet by day's
end. This may lead to some travel issues from snow in the mountain
passes and portions of the east side. An end to our latest spate of
stormy weather is in sight by next weekend, however, as an upper
ridge builds in over the PacNW. It looks like a dry and potentially
mild weekend coming up depending on the amount of fog and low cloud
we get in the valleys. -Wright
&&
.AVIATION...07/00Z TAF Cycle...A strong warm front will move north
into the area between 03Z and 12Z tonight. This will bring mainly
VFR ceilings to start tonight though with local MVFR and mountain
obscuration. Conditions will deteriorate overnight into Tuesday
morning with mainly MVFR and widespread mountain obscuration and
precipitation. Precipitation will be locally moderate to heavy with
the potential for LIFR. The freezing level near 3500 feet will rise
to around 7500 feet by Tuesday morning. The front will weaken
Tuesday afternoon with lingering showers and areas of MVFR with
mountain obscuration. -DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 600 PM PST Monday 6 February 2017...A warm front
will move through with rain late this evening through Tuesday
morning. This will result in southerly winds backing to east to
northeast by Tuesday morning. Moderate but steep wind wave and fresh
southerly swell will persist this evening. Winds and seas diminish
late tonight through Tuesday. But, south winds begin to increase
Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front. A gale watch has been
issued for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning with very
good model agreement that there will be at least a solid gale force
wind evening. The 12Z GFS is the strongest and suggests storm force
winds are possible during the peak of the event late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning. These strong winds will produce high to
very high seas due to very steep southerly wind waves and fresh
swell. Seas may reach 18 to 22 ft with a dominant period of around
11 seconds. Weaker fronts will follow late in the week. This is
likely to result in some improvement in conditions later Thursday
into the weekend but with seas remaining high through Friday night
and periods of advisory strength winds. -DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE 2000 FEET
for for ORZ023>026.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE 3500 FEET
for for CAZ080-081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ083>085.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ083-085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SBN/SBN/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter 9SSE Summer Lake reported 10.0 inches of snow fell between 06/2230 PST and 07/0700 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 670082.