Heavy Snow in Nevada, March 5, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
347 AM PST Sun Mar 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front will move through northern and
central Nevada today bringing snow and strong gusty winds. light
snow showers will continue tonight and Monday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Cold front moving into
Humboldt county early this morning with radar showing light
precipitation. The front will continue to move east and south
today reaching the Elko area late this morning then on to Ely
early this afternoon. Main snowfall will be during a 2 to 3 hour
window along and behind the front. The greatest snowfall amounts
will be across northeast NV where the valleys will pick up 2-4
inches. 1-3 inches of snow is expected across central NV and
Humboldt county. Have adjusted timing of Winter Weather Advisories
based on latest trends and model data. Mainly pushed start times
ahead. Will continue with High Wind Warning across White Pine
County and the northeast portion of Nye county for later this
morning through this evening as strong winds ahead of front are
expected to gust up to 60 mph. Snow tapers off late this
afternoon/evening. Another short wave in the northwest flow aloft
will move across northern NV Monday afternoon and evening with 1-2
inches of snow expected across northern NV. Some light snow
showers will continue across northern NV later Monday night and
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. The beginning of the
long term period will be dominated with a fairly zonal pattern and
moderating temperatures over the Great Basin with the main storm
track into the Pacific northwest. Both the EURO and GFS show one
or two waves pushing far enough south to clip northern NV and the
trend has been wetter and farther south, so have increased pops
across northern NV. Temps begin to rebound with highs in the 50s
and possibly 60s for central NV.

For Friday and into the weekend, the models are coming into better
agreement and showing a more active, cool pattern. For Friday,
the models begin to drop a trof south into the Pacific NW with
strong jet and good moisture feed pushing into CA and then across
northern NV. For the weekend, models begin to diverge on the
overall progression of the trof and jet pattern. Even with the
differences, there is much better agreement towards cooler,
unsettled weather.
&&

.AVIATION...Suspended dust and haze reducing vis continues to
settle at KEKO this morning. Cold front pushing across the state
will bring snow and for all terminals today. Snow is expected to
start at KWMC around 11-12Z, at KEKO around 16-17Z, at KTPH around
20-21Z and then KELY around 21-22Z. Snow showers expected to
continue behind the front through early evening and then taper off
overnight. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times, especially
during its onset with the frontal passage, that MVFR and IFR
conditions likely with the possibility of LIFR at times. A very
windy day is also expected. Southwest winds 15-20G25-35 expected
today at KWMC and KEKO. Winds at KELY and KTPH will be quite
strong at 25-35G40-50KT and switching from S-SW to W-NW with
frontal passage.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream
remains in flood stage. The stage at Comus just dropped into minor
flooding, but moderate flooding continues at Winnemucca and is
expected to remain in moderate flood stage for a least several
more days.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern
Elko County.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
evening for Northeastern Nye County-White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PST this evening
for White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for South Central Elko County.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
for Northwestern Nye County.

&&

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