NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 3:25 PM PST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 3:25 PM PST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
325 PM PST Sun Mar 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A cool upper level trough of low pressure moving
across the Pacific Northwest will bring showers with low snow levels
today through Monday. Temperatures will moderate closer to seasonal
normals Tuesday through Thursday as a series of moist fronts arrive.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Very cool and unstable air
mass over the region this afternoon. Our string of unseasonably cool
days continues. For early March, most lowland areas should be in the
middle 50s for high temperatures. So, our current day with
temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s is quite cool.
The cool air mass, combined with low pressure offshore, has been
maintaining showers and a few thunderstorms along the coast, and more
scattered showers farther inland. Main upper trough sitting just
offshore, with several disturbances offshore. One is just moving
onshore around Hoquiam. Before it moved onshore, have been getting
snow down to 100 to 200 feet above sea level on the south Washington
and far north Oregon coast. Web cameras indicated less than an inch
of accumulations on the hills above Astoria, and also on Naselle
Ridge.
Another disturbance was off the Oregon coast to west of Newport, and
should move onshore later this evening. This will maintain good
threat of showers over the higher terrain of western Oregon and
coastal areas this evening.
Farther inland, scattered showers will continue this evening. Decent
instability, so would expect small hail at times in the heavier
showers, and even wet snow on higher hills. Will keep a slight chance
of thunderstorms into early this evening until the offshore
disturbance pushes farther inland. Showers will decrease over the
interior lowlands later tonight. With the cool air mass, will see
spotty minor accumulations as low as the valley floor at times later
tonight into Mon am, but will be very spotty as showers coverage will
be less at that time. Still, best chance of any
accumulation of an inch or two would be at/above 1000 feet.
Will not have any winter weather advisories, as think with
precipitation staying showery, any decent accumulation of snow would
be fairly hit and miss. Even in the Cascades, where have best threat
of decent snowfall, still only likely to get 3 to 6 inches of snow
tonight, and again on Monday.
The short wave today followed by another one Mon will keep pops high,
but 850 mb onshore flow never gets stronger than about 30 kt,
limiting the lift provided by orographics. While an advisory for
snow may yet be needed for places like the Cascade Foothills and/or
the Coast Range, the confidence is still not there for widespread
advisory amounts at any given time.
Mon night and Tue once the upper trough has passed, the upper flow
turns westerly. Weak surface low pressure approaches Tue from the
west, with warm air advection preceding the low. Deep moist
isentropic lift develops with the warm air advection, with
isentropic surfaces from 285k through 300k showing the deep lift,
peaking from 06z through 18z Tue. This will bring a moderate shot of
rain to the region, with qpf in the mountains and coast likely to be
on the order of an inch. Will have to watch for potential of snow
advisory for the Cascades, as could get 6 to 10 inches of snow later
Mon night into Tue before snow levels rise above passes.
That front will push inland Tue night, then will flip back to showery
mode. But overall baroclinic zone looks to be held up over the
southern part of the region on Wed, with snow levels much lower to
the north. Will hold snow levels around 3000 ft over south Washington
Cascades, but sloping back to 5000 or 6000 feet over Lane County.
Rockelson
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...Weakening baroclinic
zone stuck over region Wed night, with showers decreasing. But,
models continue to show another rather wet and mild system pushing
into the region from the west/southwest on Thu. Fairly decent
precipitable water with the system, with moderate to locally heavy
rain at times on Thu. Front will push inland Thu night, then will see
another bout of cool air aloft. Looks like Fri into Sat will be a
repeat of our current weather, with cool and showery conditions. But
snow levels appear to not get as low, with generally 1000 to 2000
feet. Differences between models, but appears another mild and wet
system will arrive later next weekend. Looks like wet weather will
continue, with chance of a dry day getting less. rockey.
&&
A cold front is moving onto the coast this afternoon. It has just
passed through KAST, bringing a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions.
The front will continue to move onshore and then through the
interior later this afternoon. This system is bringing gusty
southerly winds, with gusts 25 to 30 kt being observed over most of
the interior lowlands this afternoon. Southerly winds to shift to
the west-southwest behind the cold front but remain gusty into this
evening. Conditions are generally VFR right now, but expect a brief
1-2 hr period of MVFR or lower conditions with the frontal passage.
Think the interior sites will see this period in the 00Z- 02Z Mon
window. There will still be scattered showers around this evening
behind the cold front, but conditions should improve to mostly VFR.
Another upper level disturbance will move through on Mon, bringing
continued showers. Think that cigs will drop to MVFR for a period
Mon morning, then remain a mix of VFR and MVFR in showers through
the rest of the day. There may also be a rain/snow mix in heavier
showers Mon morning.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A cold front will likely bring a period of
MVFR or IFR conditions for 1-2 hrs, starting around 00Z Mon.
Breezy southerly winds gusting 25 to 30 kt continue until the front
goes through around 01Z. Winds then switch to the west-southwest but
remain breezy into the evening. Showers continue tonight, but expect
conditions to improve to mainly VFR. MVFR conditions may develop
after 12Z Mon and last through mid morning. Then expect a mix of VFR
and MVFR through Mon. Snow may mix to the surface in heavier showers
Mon morning. Pyle
&&
.MARINE...A surface low pres system is moving onshore just to the
south of Grays Harbor this afternoon. This is bringing heavy showers
and isolated thunderstorms to the coastal waters today.
A cold front extending south from the low is moving through the
waters and will be onshore by late afternoon. Winds are westerly
behind the front and will remain gusty through this evening.
Based on observations and the latest hi-res models, decided to drop
the Gale Warning for the central OR waters and replace with a small
craft advisory. Expect winds generally 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25
kt through the rest of the afternoon and this evening. There may be
a few gusts to 30 kt south of Newport.
Winds will decrease overnight into Mon. Another surface low will
approach Mon night and Tue. A leading warm front will move in Mon
night, with the main surface low moving onshore Tue afternoon.
The latest fcst models are suggesting a landfall somewhere along the
north Oregon coast, with areas to the south of the low seeing a
period of at least solid gale force southerly winds Tue morning and
afternoon. Areas to the north of the low will see only light
easterly winds Tue. There is some uncertainty on the exact track,
but the best chance for gales at this point appears to be over the
central OR waters. There is potential for another system late in the
week, but details in this are even more uncertain.
Seas will remain in the 10 to 13 ft range through tonight. They will
then gradually subside Mon. A small craft advisory is in effect
through 4 AM Mon. Seas then generally remain below 10 ft through
most of next week. However, expect that seas will briefly build back
again 10 ft on Tue for areas that see gales. Those seas will be
primarily wind wave driven and should dissipate rapidly after the
low departs Tue night. Pyle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 PM PST this evening for
Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM PST Monday
for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 9 PM
this evening to 2 AM PST Monday.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 10 AM to
1 PM PST Monday.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.