Wildfire in Florida, March 5 to 13, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1241 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017

.AVIATION...All TAF sites will continue to see winds around 20kts
with gusts to 30kts out of the ENE for the rest of the day. VFR
conditions will prevail with some occasional cigs of 050-060,
There still is some potential for brief MVFR with passing SHRA.
However, coverage of showers is too sparse and light to include
VCSH at this time.Tomorrow winds increase again around 13Z with
ENE wind around 20kts with occasional gust 25-30kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1004 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017/

UPDATE...Wind surge earlier has brought strong and gusty east-
northeast winds across South Florida this morning. Sustained
speeds have been around 15 to 20 mph, with peaks gusts earlier of
30 to 40 mph across most of the region.

Morning sounding shows a strong inversion around 7000ft, with
winds throughout the mixed layer below it around 20-30kts. This is
consistent with the drop in peak wind speeds across the region as
the atmosphere has become well mixed. Based on these trends, will
not issue either a Wind Advisory for land or Gale Warning for the
local Atlantic. However, occasional gusts to 35-40mph will remain
possible through the remainder of the day.

Analysis shows a much drier airmass over the Atlantic behind the
surge, which is consistent with lower stratocu coverage that
yesterday. Have removed rain chances for the remainder of the
daylight hours as it looks like chances for much more than a
sprinkle are minimal.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...

As of 320 AM EST...Widely scattered showers continue to stream in
across eastern areas off the Atlantic, driven by a moisture surge
in association with a weak boundary located near south central
Florida. This boundary has shown up nicely in the preliminary,
non-operational GOES-16 high resolution satellite data,
highlighting its application. Further to the north, high pressure
continues to move eastward across the east coast, with our region
within a tight pressure gradient on the southern periphery of the
high. This pressure gradient continues to allow for breezy to
occasionally gusty east/northeast winds across the region. This
trend will continue through today, as model guidance continues to
suggest that a wind surge will produce even gustier winds
especially along the east coast and open water. Winds will again
be sustained at 10-20 mph across western areas, and 15-25 mph
across eastern areas. Gusts will frequently reach into the 25-35
mph range today, especially along the east coast where brief gusts
may exceed 35 mph at times. Will hold off on issuing a Wind
Advisory at this time as frequency of gusts exceeding 35 mph
should be brief, but if conditions warrant later this morning,
then a short-fused advisory may need to be issued.
East coast
Drier air filtering in from the north should inhibit most shower
activity today, although there will be a slight chance of spotty
showers streaming in off the Atlantic for the east coast. Most of
this activity is expected to be brief and generally light in nature.
It will be a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day, with greatest cloud
coverage along the east coast. High temperatures will be around
normal, ranging from the mid and upper 70s with a few spots along
the Gulf Coast eclipsing 80.

SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure to the north will gradually shift eastward through the
short term period, allowing the flow to gradually become more
southeastward with time. While most areas will be dry throughout the
short term period, occasional brief showers streaming in off the
Atlantic will be possible along the east coast. Coverage of these
showers may be slightly greater than in past days with model
guidance hinting at a moisture surge Monday into Tuesday.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy especially in eastern areas,
along with continued breezy winds. High temperatures will generally
be in the upper 70s to near 80, with Tuesday being the warmest day
with temperatures reaching into the low 80s across much of the
interior and Gulf Coast. Low temperatures will generally range from
the upper 50s to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The long term period will feature a weak frontal boundary crossing
the region late Wednesday and into Thursday. Long range guidance
continues to indicate that this front will be a weak one with little
in the way of forcing as it moves across the region. Still, enough
low-level moisture with the southeast flow should be present to
create some isolated to widely scattered showers with its passage.
In the wake of the frontal passage, the flow will become more
easterly with weak high pressure building into the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the long term
period.

MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local waters...

Wind gusts to gale force possible for offshore Gulf and Atlantic
waters...

Strong high pressure to the north will allow for 20-30 knot winds to
continue across the local waters today, with the flow gradually
veering from east/northeasterly to southeasterly with time. Gusts
to gale force will be possible today for the offshore Gulf and
especially offshore Atlantic waters. Small craft advisory
conditions look to continue for the Atlantic waters through
Tuesday before winds diminish and shift to the southeast.

Seas will be 5-7 feet in the offshore Gulf waters, and 7-11 feet
in the Atlantic, highest in the Gulf Stream. Seas will begin to
gradually decrease late Monday and into Tuesday, but will
continue to remain elevated into midweek. Widely scattered showers
will be possible over the Atlantic over the next several days.

BEACH FORECAST...A High Risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
beaches will continue through at least Tuesday evening with
continued strong onshore flow and rough surf.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  76  69  79 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  69  75  69  79 /  20  20  20  30
Miami            66  77  67  80 /  20  20  20  30
Naples           60  81  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ610.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

UPDATE...88/ALM
DISCUSSION...92/IRL
MARINE...92/IRL
AVIATION...33/Kelly
BEACH FORECAST...92/IRL

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
402 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
052115-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
402 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of rip currents at all Atlantic
beaches.

Wind: Sustained northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near
gale force are forecast today and tonight over the local Atlantic
and Gulf waters. Over Lake Okeechobee and Biscayne Bay, winds around
20 to 25 knots are forecast with gusts to 30 knots.

Waves: Seas of 6 to 8 feet are forecast over the Gulf waters, and 8
to 12 feet in the Atlantic waters, occasionally higher in the Gulf
Stream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches and hazardous
marine conditions will continue on Monday and Tuesday.

Wind: Sustained northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30
knots all coastal waters Monday and Monday night, then continuing in
the Atlantic waters through Tuesday.

Waves: Atlantic waters...seas of 6 to 8 feet with occasional 10 feet,
highest over the Gulf stream, Monday and Tuesday. Gulf waters...4 to
6 feet with occasional 8 feet Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 PM EST SUN MAR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     WILDFIRE         3 W FIU SOUTH CAMPUS    25.76N  80.42W
03/05/2017  E500 ACRE        AMZ671             FL   FOREST SERVICE

            FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE HAS REPORTED A WILDFIRE AT SW
            139TH AVE AND US 41 IN WESTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY HAS
            GROWN TO 500 ACRES. NO STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY
            THIS FIRE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700085

CWC